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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk August 5

Note: If you missed it, here are Informa's crop estimates released Wednesday:

U.S. Corn Production= 13.412 billion bushels vs. USDA July estimate of 13.530 bill/bu.
U.S. Soybean Production= 3.789 billion bushels vs. USDA July estimate of 3.885 billion bu.
 

Yields

Corn= 165.4 bu./acre vs USDA July estimate of 166.8.

Soybean= 45.4 bu./acre vs. USDA July est. of 46.0. Acreage estimate was lowered by 1.0 million from USDA.
 
 
World 2014 Corn Crop raised by 2.5 mmt, due to higher Brazil and Argentina crops.
World 2015 corn crop lowered by 2.4 mmt. Higher Brazil could not offset lower
Est of Argentina and EU.
 
World 2015 wheat crop raised by 1.5 mmt. This due to higher crops in Russia and US.
 
World 2015 soybean crop unchanged. Higher US and Brazil offset a drop in Argentina.
 

 

 

Mike

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At the close:

At the close, the Sept. corn futures settled 4 cents higher at $3.72 3/4, Dec corn futures finished 4 1/2 cents higher at  $3.83 1/4. 

Sept. soybean futures finished 14 cents higher at $9.62 3/4. Nov. soybean futures closed 11 cents higher at $9.53 1/4.

Sept. wheat futures ended 8 1/2 cents higher at $5.02.

Sept. soymeal futures settled $6.30 per short ton higher at $343.80. Sept. soyoil futures closed $0.22 lower at $29.73. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.76 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points higher.

Mike

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At 11:30am:

According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 961,000 barrels per day (b/d)—or 40.36 million gallons daily, this past week. That is down 4,000 b/d from the week before and an 11-week low. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 971,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 14.89 billion gallons, according to the Renewable Fuels Association press release.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 19.2 million barrels. That is a 2.1% decrease from last week, and the lowest since the first week of the year.

Imports of ethanol were zero b/d for the 15th straight week and the 30th in 31 weeks.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are trading 2 cents higher at $3.70, Dec corn futures are 2 1/4 cents higher at  $3.81. 

Sept. soybean futures are trading 11 cents higher at $9.59. Nov. soybean futures are trading 9 cents higher at $9.51 1/2.

Sept. wheat futures are 8 1/2 cents higher at $5.02.

Sept. soymeal futures are trading $5.40 per short ton higher at $342.90. Sept. soyoil futures are trading $0.25 lower at $29.70. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.18 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 63 points higher.

 

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group senior grain analyst, says outside money shifting its weight, with the idea that the USDA will cut soybean production and ending stocks.

"Been a slow week so far, today is slow too.  I think we are seeing mostly spec buying, partly short covering and partly new longs, on ideas that USDA will need to cut production and ending stocks.  This does not have to be but that is the mindset right now.  Weather forecasts are a little drier and that has the trade nervous as root systems are not real strong for corn or beans this year so warmer and drier could in fact hurt yields.  But, that is not really the forecast, it should be not too hot and with some rains.  No real reason to look for a big up move, but we could see some more upside going into next week," Scoville says.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Sept. corn futures are trading 1 3/4 cents higher at $3.70, Dec corn futures are 1 3/4 cents higher at  $3.80. 

Sept. soybean futures are trading 12 cents higher at $9.61. Nov. soybean futures are trading 11 cents higher at $9.53.

Sept. wheat futures are 1 cent higher at $4.94.

Sept. soymeal futures are trading $5.30 per short ton higher at $340.28. Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.20 higher at $30.03. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.45 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 60 points higher.

Mike

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At 8:30am:

One floor trader put it simply, when describing the higher commodities markets. "Weak ADP report this AM=no rate hike=weak dollar=commod bounce."

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At 8am:

FC Stone Yield Estimates were updated yesterday.

 

Corn=165 bu./acre, below the USDA initial estimate.

 

Soybeans= 45 bu./acre, below the USDA initial estimate.

 

What do you all think about those estimates?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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At 7:00am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 5-7 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.26 higher.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen only sligthtly higher, with eyes on ADP payroll data.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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13 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 5

Welcome back, boss! I guess some folks missed you around here....

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 5

Luis,

 

Obrigado! Tudo bem? I am back. A little birdie did tell me there was a little dust up, while I stepped out. I hope all were able to get their voice heard.

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 5

FC Stones numbers.  another guess. They are either high or low, no charge for that information.  Last I checked crop isn't in the bin yet.   Very few hurdles left, a little more rain in some areas, not too hot of August, and a normal frost date.

 

A side note.  I read comments from farmers on the net and they talk about best corn ever, especially NIA and So.MN.  I have to think, have these people not been farming very long?  There is no way I think I will beat 2004 yields.  Too much rain to early.  But, I have been wrong before.  Maybe they are all having a 2014 IL year.  Good for them.  With all the talk, combines yields could be pushing 260+ in some of those areas if they are right.  Their basis is going to be bad. 

 

 

 

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Advisor

Re: Perhaps 156 to 158 corn on

80 to 82 mill harvested. afore is usa Perhaps 35 to 38 beans on 74 mill harvested. afore is usa Likely be bout 1/2 a crop in BR this winter due to el nino. Likely be not much wheat, canola etc in West Canada this summer. Likely be 1/3 less wheat in AU this fall's harvest. Thialand is DROUTH...World's Largest Rice grower / exporter, btw. kinda wonder how the usda is gonna explain their way out of Pure Misses bout Jan of 2016. heck get a rare early frost and usa yields gonna be 10% ( to maybe 20% lower ) lower than afore quoted too weather been pretty extreme at times this year.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 5

 
I approve.jpg
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 5

Mike, glad you are back! FC Stone's estimate would be realistic if the one doing the estimating was a passenger on a bus who was wide awake through Iowa, Minnesota, and western Illinois, but fell asleep though the rest of Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Missouri LOL! I've toured the cornbelt while on vacation in both 2009 and 2014, both record crops, and to make that kind of yield the crop was consistently good across the cornbelt minus a few spots here and there. This year's corn crop is by no means the second or third largest on record and will struggle to hit 160. I think the biggest problem with this year's corn crop is nitrogen loss. While plenty noticable in the eastern cornbelt, it even shows up in some of the good areas. Soybeans will need more timely rain to make 45 on the acres we have left. 

 

BTW I've been keeping an eye on basis levels locally. Most grain elevators are -.5 to +.15 for old crop corn, and +.50 to +.75 for old crop soybeans. I talked to a grain buyer yesterday that told me some of the big terminals are having a hard time filling rail cars becuase farmer selling is so slow right now, at least around here. Also have you heard anything on the Delta harvest? Have they gotten started harvesting down south? Last year I heard plenty of large yield reports out of that region, just wondering what yields will be like down there this year. Thanks Mike!

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 5

Blacksandfarmer,

 

Good intel. Eastern Corn Belt users could have an interesting year sourcing enough crops? Is that what I'm hearing you type? Slow farmer-selling of old crop and maybe less new crop coming on?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 5

We are in an area that had excess rain and corn damage

Although I haven't done a lot of walking the fields, I did check some spots that had that pale green colour

Not the yellow stuff, just pale green

The tip back was the worst I have ever seen in our corn, and it wasn't that bad for colour or vigour

We obviously did not get the NH3 to the roots when the soil was wet-shallow roots

Anybody that applied all their N before planting did the correct thing in our area

We side dress a lot of NH3 later, after the corn has some deecent height

That did not work in our area, this yr.

We have about 50-50 farmers, that did N before or as side dress "here"

That tip back is maybe 5-10 kernels/row

14-16-18 rows depending on hybrid, so that part is normal "here"

No idea what the kernel size will be

No idea what other people are seeing for tip back

Might be a "here" thing, but sure doesn't look encouraging, for us

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 5

Just a thought here......Perhaps the illusion of slow farmers selling is masked by the fact that they don't really have all that much left to sell afterall.

 

And...as far as the crop conditions go......just remember the percentages this week at 70% good/excellent.   Would anyone like to see pictures?........try this link:

 

 

https://www.flickr.com/photos/135155043@N06/collections/72157654274110753/

 

 

Draw your own conclusions........

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