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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk August 6

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 7 cents higher at $3.74.

 

Nov. soybean futures finished 14 1/4 cents higher at $10.80.

Sep. wheat futures closed 15 1/2 cents higher at $5.68.

 

Dec. soymeal futures ended $4.60 higher at $348.20. Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.33 higher at $36.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.52 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 11 points higher.

 

Also:

Russia has banned U.S. poultry imports, due to our siding with the EU on the Ukrainian conflict. Last year,  Russia imported 11% of all exported U.S. food and ag products.

 

Mike

 

Mike

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At 11:30am:

On Wednesday, the Energy Information Agency released fresh ethanol production numbers. It looks like less ethanol was made, last week:

According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 902,000 barrels per day (b/d)—or 37.88 million gallons daily. That is down 52,000 b/d from the week before and a 13-week low. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 940,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 14.41 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 18.3 million barrels. That is a 1.8% decrease from last week.

Imports of ethanol were zero b/d, down from 7 b/d last week.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 6 3/4 cents higher at $3.74.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 8 1/4 cents higher at $10.74.

Sep. wheat futures are 17 cents higher at $5.69.

 

Dec. soymeal futures are $2.00 higher at $345.60. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.34 higher at $36.21.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.22 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 56 points higher.

 

Joe Bedore, FC Stone's CME Group trading floor manager, says the markets are reacting to all of the bears going to one side of the boat.
"Everybody saw the rains that fell in Iowa and elsewhere, and that sent a sell, sell, sell signal to everyone. Well, that's dangerous. So, you have the opposite trade that steps in," Bedore.
In addition, there are floor rumors about Argentina placing a clamp on corn export licenses. "This is why the corn market didn't break and has been holding up, all morning," Bedore says.
For the wheat market, it is gaining strength on poorer quality products in Europe, Bedore says. "Plus, Russia's Putin lining up more soldiers on the Ukraine border has the market nervous," Bedore says.
For soybeans, the rally is unsubstantiated, he says. "Overall, we have too many short positions, too many people thinking the market should drop, world export issues, wheat quality issues and Ukraine/Russia military concerns."

 

Also:

Informa, the private analyst firm, released bullish U.S. crop production estimates this week. On Tuesday, Informa pegged 2014 U.S. corn yield at 168 bushels per acre, and soybeans at 44.5 bu./acre.
"If the government prints these types of numbers next week, we could get the trade thinking the soybean market could scoot back up to $11.50.

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 3/4 cents lower at $3.68.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $10.61.

Sep. wheat futures are 9 cents higher at $5.61.

 

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.50 lower at $342.90. Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.02 lower at $35.85.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 160,000 metric tons of corn to Colombia during the 2014/2015 marketing year. 

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

 

Mike

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At 7:00am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 4-6 cents lower, and wheat 5-7 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.40 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen lower.

World Markets=Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower, on Ukraine/Russia concerns.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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32 Replies
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 6

interrad-3.gif

 

It looks like plenty of coverage, this morning, for those needing moisture. It's been raining most of the overnight, at times pretty heavy, in central Iowa. I recorded 1.75-inches of rain in my rain guage. What's it like where you are standing?

 

 

Mike

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Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 6

Great news! The farm is getting a drink. It might not be worth a lot but if this keeps up it will be a big crop.
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Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 6

Had over 1.5" of rain here west of DMS.  since 2AM.  First good rain since July 4th.

Moisture wise this should send the corn home and the beans to 3rd.

Very thankful.

Mike, I think this corn is under priced and I have this hunch that some big time end user is going to come in and buy a huge about of corn and shock the market.

Just dreaming, wishful thinking?  It happened before. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 6

Wind,

 

Well, speaking of buying corn, the USDA just released a fresh sale to Colombia. But, I agree. One longtime marketwatcher once said that the market is right. Low prices bring in large demand, and high prices raise acreage around the globe. China is licking its chops, I guarantee ya!

 

Mike

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 6

No rain here in west central Wisconsin. Corn starting to fire and beans flipping leaves all over the place. Going to need a drink real soon.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 6

On the fringe again..1.32" here at the Hobby encampment in South Podunk Country Iowa

 

More just west an south, way less just east a few miles.

 

Bean potential just got a stay of execution. Like wind this will keep the corn yield number very high here.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 6

You'd think any buyer that could justify spending $8 for corn not all that long ago, would be setting up their hoard at these prices.  Actually, I suspect major buyers are keeping their extra powder dry until they've decided the market has bottomed, then a surprise, but it might be during or after the bulk of the harvest.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 6

Mike, my farm got 4 tenth's yesterday, and about an inch of rain last week, so we are doing ok moisture wise. With that said, one dont have to go far from my location to see drought stressed crops. Northern Indiana is getting bone dry in some key areas. Soybeans over much of the Midwest will need another widespread rain to make record yield.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 6

Blacksandfarmer,

 

That rain that is needed is coming. The second half of August will bring rains. Tell those Indiana folks to hold on.

 

Mike

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