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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk August 7, 2020

At the close:

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 3 1/2¢ lower at $3.07 3/4. Dec. corn futures ended 3 1/4¢ lower at $3.20 1/2.

Sept. soybean futures closed 9¢ lower at $8.65 3/4. November soybean futures settled 10 1/2¢ lower at $8.67 1/4.

Sep. wheat futures finished 5 3/4¢ lower at $4.95 1/4.

Sep. soymeal futures settled $1.20 per short ton lower at $282.00.

Sept. soy oil futures closed $0.37 cent lower at 30.85¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.62 per barrel lower at $41.33. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 79 points lower.

Mike

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At 8:45am:

 

In early trading, the Sept. corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.11. Dec. corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.23 3/4.

Sept. soybean futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $8.73. November soybean futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $8.76 1/4.

Sep. wheat futures are 3¢ lower at $4.98 1/4.

Sep. soymeal futures are unchanged at $283.20.

Sept. soy oil futures are $0.29 cent lower at 30.93¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.40 per barrel lower at $41.55. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 76 points lower.

On Friday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 456,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be positioning themselves ahead of next week's USDA August Supply/Demand report.

"Grain traders are deciding if current corn and soybean prices are acceptable ahead of the USDA report next week. Soybeans have seen a few export sales announcements this week, while corn sales have been quiet," Kluis told customers in a daily note.

He added, "With the U.S. dollar at multi-year lows, we would expect to see U.S. exports pick up. However, it seems grain sales have slowed this week. The USDA report next week--combined with Phase One trade deal uncertainty--has pushed some traders to sit and wait."

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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7 Replies
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 7, 2020

"Grain traders are deciding if current corn and soybean prices are acceptable" 

 

Hello ... anybody see anything wrong with this garbage statement?

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 7, 2020

Which one is it????? 

NEW-CROP CORN SALES JUMP WEEKLY AS CHINA MAKES BIG PURCHASES

Export sales of corn for delivery in the marketing year that starts on Sept. 1 were reported at 2.6 million metric tons.

" while corn sales have been quiet," Kluis told customers in a daily note.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 7, 2020

I say anybody who pays a market advisor such as Al to deliver insight like that and help manipulate our markets deserve what they get, I can take my grandson to get a milkshake and get just as good of advise. Until agriculture bands together much like labor did the manipulation of our market will not be in our favor, but that will never happen.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 7, 2020

Farmers can't make it on these prices!!!

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Senior Advisor

Re: My question is, .....

My question is, are the prices due to the perceived supply/demand situation, or is it simply because the traders are in control at the moment with producers & end-user out of the market.  You can imagine that some traders might want to push the market down at this time in order to make more room for it to run up later.

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Honored Advisor

Re: My question is, .....

Obviously.  But that is illegal activity by law.  

Usda cares about their reports but securities and exchange fails to enforce the laws..  federal employees crashing our markets. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: My question is, .....

It is usually important to remember that in a non-differentiated commodity, the price is determined by the last bushel sold/bought. Even if you have zero excess, if the buyer blinks before the seller, the price will not be very good. In the current case, even in the East where we were supposed to run out of corn (which didn't happen due to covid), local Cargill is full of high FM corn and can't take anymore. Local E plant is covered for corn needs out to mid-september when everyone agrees new crop will be widely available by then. Thus, you guessed it, the price is going to decline because the last seller (being an extemely land rich farmer normally) just doesn't care. Thus cash corn under $3.15. 

It really has nothing to do with the Algo's driving it down. They are just momentum traders and when the cash market is crashing, there ain't no momentum to the upside :-)

 

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