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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, August 8, 2019

At the close:

 

At the close, the Sep. corn futures finished 4 1/2¢ higher at $4.11. Dec. corn futures closed 4 1/4¢ higher at $4.18 1/4.

Sep. soybean futures settled 16 1/2¢ higher at $8.70 1/2. November soybean futures closed 16 1/4¢ higher at $8.83.

Sep. wheat futures finished 10 1/2¢ higher at $4.98 1/2.



December soymeal futures settled $2.00 per short ton higher at $302.00.

 December soy oil futures closed $1.01 higher at 29.12¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.62 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 300 points higher.

 

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that soybean prices are rallying off of weather.

“We are turning into a weather market. Demand ideas are a little better now that we sold some beans to unknown yesterday and meal to Philippines today, but the overall pace is still too slow. But, after the Superbad news that China will not buy anything here for a while the market pivots to supply and here east of the Mississippi the situation is dry and crops are showing stress. No real rains in the forecast and sliding production potential are providing support and the weak demand is providing the selling,” Scoville says.

 

At midsession:

 

At midsession, the Sep. corn futures are 5 1/4¢ higher at $4.11 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 5¢ higher at $4.19.

Sep. soybean futures are 17 1/2¢ higher at $8.71 1/2. November soybean futures are 17 1/4¢ higher at $8.84.

Sep. wheat futures are 13 1/2¢ higher at $5.01.



December soymeal futures are $3.10 per short ton higher at $303.10.

 December soy oil futures are $0.75 higher at 29.12¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.65 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 279 points higher.

 

Mike

------------

At 8:57am:

In early trading, the Sep. corn futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $4.09. Dec. corn futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $4.16 1/4.

Sep. soybean futures are 4 1/2¢ higher at $8.58 1/2. November soybean futures are 4 1/2¢ higher at $8.71 3/4.

Sep. wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $4.91 3/4.



December soymeal futures are $0.80 per short ton higher at $300.80.

 December soy oil futures are $0.24 higher at 28.61¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.29 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 118 points higher.

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 135,000 metric tons of soybean meal for delivery to the Philippines during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybean meal began Oct. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that U.S. grain prices remain fairly quiet leading up to the USDA Crop Production report to be released Monday August 12.

“Crop conditions continue to hold steady and the weather for much of the US is not threatening at this point. It feels as though we have good support under the market. We are getting pretty cheap with this year's crop still very much unknown. However, until we get some solid production numbers, we will trend sideways,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

On Thursday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report shows lackluster corn, soybean figures.

Corn= 239,600 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000-700,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 420,000 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 150,000-600,000 mt.

Wheat= 487,700 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000-500,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 110,800 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 75,000-275,000 mt.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

 

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7 Replies
Advisor

Perhaps Keep in Mind

That for Several Decades Now,  the yuan is Always " Indexed to the USD ".

Now as the yuan goes lower So Does the value of the USD. 

Soo in terms of USD,  grain goes higher as the dollar goes lower. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Perhaps Keep in Mind

Who sets "trade expectations"........ they obviously haven't got a clue.

Export sales reports are one of the few usda releases that are based on real numbers.....How is the "trade" so out of touch.

When it needs a spread that covers 400% range  like 150,000 mt to 600,000 mt    ................... but then Al says "“Crop conditions continue to hold steady and the weather for much of the US is not threatening at this point. It feels as though we have good support under the market.(really..... when was the last time there was support under the markets) We are getting pretty cheap with this year's crop still very much unknown( give us a break Al..... you been sleeping under a rock for 6 months?  So your saying theres still a near record crop out there?). However, until we get some solid production numbers, we will trend sideways,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.  (My guess is for Al, poor production numbers won't be "solid" production numbers.... So Al will be keeping his iron underwear on 24 hrs a day for years to come.)  Don't believe what you see...... or hear..... or read in this case.... Al isn't going to take a risk..... He will sit at the intersection until all the other cars are out of sight.  He was wrong in 2011 and way too late in 2012..... He will be late to this party as well.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Perhaps Keep in Mind

Definition  of  the  word  expectation  being  -  a  strong  belief  something  will  happen  -  -  -

How  would  things  work  """  if """  an  expert  opinion  having  contained  a  400 %  range  -  ?  Those  odds  would  be  cause  for  concern  in  Vegas  - ? 

Chances  of  rain  tonite  being  1  to  400 %   -  -  -  

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Honored Advisor

Re: Perhaps Keep in Mind

He's at an intersection?    I think he, like many traders and advisers are stuck on the train tracks and about to have a collision with reality.    

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Senior Contributor

Re: "Indexed to the dollar"?

"Indexed to the dollar", That's not what it means when the Chinese adopt a policy to devalue the Yuan.  As the number of Yuan to equal a dollar increases, the dollar becomes relatively stronger.  Given Chinese's more stable situation with the rest of the world's economies that means that the dollar becomes stronger relative to every other currency at the same time.

  Net effect, kiss your exports goodbye.

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Honored Advisor

Re: "Indexed to the dollar"?

But then Al (and usda) know that they can live in an alter universe for years and years and the checks keep coming.

I remember my first marketing class in college.  This guy(who pretended to lead the class) was disturbing and couldnt have earned a paycheck without tenure, was telling us how to sell.  To this day I wouldn't have given him time to introduce himself...... he did everything to convince his prey of his superiority.  Not one time ever did he talk about the importance of selling the right product.  "A poor product can be sold by a good marketer."

Well tenure can do that to good folks.  Being wrong needs to have consequences.  Humility is important.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: "Indexed to the dollar"?

I've   yet   to  see   a  drought  of   opinions  -  -  -