Floor Talk August 8
At the close:
At the close, the Sep. corn futures ended 1¢ higher at $3.25 1/4, Dec. futures finished 1/2¢ higher at $3.34 3/4 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures closed 13 1/4¢ higher at $10.01 1/4, while Nov. soybean futures finished 10 1/2¢ higher at $9.85. Sept. wheat futures closed 1¢ higher at $4.17. Sept soymeal futures settled $1.50 short ton higher at $335.90. Sept. soyoil futures closed $0.39 higher at 31.01¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.25 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points lower.
Deanna Hawthorne Lahre, co-founder of StatFutures Group, says that the recent soybean business to China continues to underpin the markets, while corn and wheat trade both sides of unchanged.
"Bull spreading in the beans and wheat dominate the internals today, while the snap back in wheat spreads has been brutal.
Nov beans nearing the $10.00 level, where the battle of late summer will happen. Bean yields' whispers continue to move higher, so something has to give," she says.
Lahre adds, "French wheat harvest is very bad, and has been put into the market, but some questions about Brazilian beans remain in the "pits". Corn crop is big, and little to move the market, unless wheat gets something going on the upside."
At mid-session, the Sep. corn futures are 1/4¢ higher at $3.24, Dec. futures are 3/4¢ lower at $3.33 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $9.89, while Nov. soybean futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $9.73. Sept. wheat futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $4.13. August soymeal futures are $3.20 short ton lower at $331.20. August soyoil futures are $0.35 higher at 30.97¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.19 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points lower.
At the open:
At the open, the Sep. corn futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.25, Dec. futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.33 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures are 6¢ higher at $9.94, while Nov. soybean futures are 5 1/4¢ higher at $9.79. Sept. wheat futures are 3¢ higher at $4.19. August soymeal futures are $2.30 short ton higher at $336.70. August soyoil futures are $0.35 higher at 30.97¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $071 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points higher.
China did it again. For 8 straight trading days, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
--Export sales of 246,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/2017 marketing year; and
--Export sales of 162,569 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2016/2017 marketing year.
The marketing year for corn and soybeans began Sept. 1
Beans continue to lead the entire complex higher as sales remain robust. The USDA on Friday said exporters sold another 498,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery in the 2016-2017 marketing year amid strong demand, low prices and a weak dollar. It looks like a quiet week upcoming on the weather front, though in Kansas some flooding is expected today, and rain may fall in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas. In Ohio, northern Indiana and southern Michigan, however, it's supposed to remain dry for the next 11 to 15 days.
Here's what happened overnight:
Brent Crude Oil = 1.5% higher.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 1.5% higher.
Dollar = up 0.2%.
Wall Street = U.S. stock futures slightly higher in overnight trading.
World Markets = Global stocks rise along with oil futures.
Re: Floor Talk August 8
Hey thanks for the question -- I did a little digging and I'm finding that there are a lot of conflicting reports right now.
Here are a couple headlines I found from some of the more well-respected forecasters:
Commodity Weather Group:
*Rains Eased Dryness in Northeast China Corn/Soy, With More Rains Next 10 Days to Further Limit Stress
* No changes for China. Dryness will continue to stress corn and soybeans across southeastern North China Plain and northwestern Northeast China.
Xinhua News Agency said only 19,600 hectares, or about 50,000 acres, were affected by the typhoon as it lost strength as it moved inland, so as far as I can tell, there isn't much of an impact on crops whatsoever.
Re: Floor Talk August 8
It appears that China is doing a very good job of keeping the lid on this flooding problem and what it means to their billions of people that need fed. They certainly would not want to tip their hand and let the rest of the world know that they will be seeking to purchase record amounts of grain and soybeans to keep their people happy. I got news for them. If Trump gets elected, they will no longer be manipulating our markets. The price is going up.
Just a theory that I have here. China is buying now for three reasons. First, they have huge losses in their own food supply due to the flooding. Second, the U.S. crop is possibly not quite as large as was once thought and prices might just tick a bit higher. Third, If Trump gets elected, this grain is gonna cost them much, much more.