Floor Talk December 10, 2020 (Report Day)

[marketeye]

USDA SAYS:

USDA tightens soybean ending stocks, leave corn unchanged Thursday.

Mike

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At 11:15am:

At midsession, the March corn futures are 2¢ higher at $4.25 3/4. May corn futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $4.28 1/2.

January soybean futures are 8 1/2¢ higher at $11.67 3/4. March soybean futures are 8 1/4¢ higher at $11.71 1/2.

March wheat futures are 9 1/4¢ higher at $5.92 3/4.



Jan. soymeal futures are $2.60 per short ton higher at $381.70.


Jan. soy oil futures are 0.53 of a cent higher at 38.39¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.73 per barrel higher (+3.80%) at $47.25. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 68 points lower (-0.23%) 30,000 points.

Mike

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At 8:45am:

At 11am, the USDA will release its December Supply/Demand Report.

Soybeans jump double-digits Thursday. 

Thanks,

Mike

[roarintiger1]

Hang on to your......hats. 

[cborman11]

Traders got what they wanted so they can keep a cap on our prices. How long you idiots gonna ignore the corn bulls?

[sw363535]

Well I have no Idea where these markets are going...... the whole underpinning financials of the agriculture economy seem faulty and shaky....... when the gps signal is more dependable than latest usda number, we haven't got much to depend on.

Really don't need another announcement from DC this week.  Won't be worth the paper it is duplicated on.

I know this much as far as markets go...... Corn traded in unprecidented levels of +40 to +50 cents basis going into harvest and never went lower even though the futures went up all through harvest.(harvest which was very dissapointing overall in the sw and as I drove home from visiting my Orthopedic surgeon consult yesterday in Wichita........  I counted fewer than 15 ground piles on the 250 mile trip corn and milo..... about half of a normal year....and on december 9th half of those were already being loaded for shipment to the end users.  The other 7 between liberal and Greensburg are owned by the ethanol plant in that area.)  Grain that would normally be moved in june and July is now filling trucks for and being marketed......

To finish this thought, it is a short week after the thanksgiving break and We also are shipping corn daily,  we had confirmation this week that corn was traded in the Garden City Ks area (60 miles north) at +80 cents basis and just 45 miles south of us in the texas panhandle corn traded this week with a +1.00 basis....

So for now I am much more confident with corn in the bin than I am with the "congressional" check in the mail.  The corn seems to be gaining value far faster than the check is loosing value...... Don't worry congress will get that fixed.

[BA Deere]

Aren`t endusers running the show now?  I don`t know but guessing after the bindoors were welded shut it`d be hard to raise prices enough to drag the torch cart over.  At this point in time, rally 50¢ and they think they need a buck, probably shake as much loose by trading sideways?    But at some point in the future, this is going to bite some butts, this late fall is as dry as i`ve seen it.  But whistling through the grave yard sipping elderberry wine and repeating "winter is the best time for a drought.. winter is the best time for a drought.."  

[Whitesand_Farms]

Wait till that drought really takes form and spreads east. I’ve been saying for a year we’re in for a 30’s style drought and now I see Drew Learner is warning of the same thing. This fall I’ve found rock walls on the fence lines in recently dried up sloughs that I thought were previously were never dry. Obviously years ago it was dry enough that my grandfather and great grandfather piled them there. This dry winter could be the start of something and that extra 50 cents the markets are giving might not cover grain shortfalls next year.

[sdholloway56]

Solar Cycle Progression | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

Heard something about this on that socialist radio network that does science reporting.

Solar activity is indeed picking up. My 50 years of following every methodology that some guru has used to predict The Coming Drought I've landed on that as the most reliable, although not a foolproof predictor. There isn't one.

We are heading into a cycle peak around '23-24, so that alone raises interest a bit and it seems to be getting some confirmation.

We can still be in a longer term period of a quiet sun and have an observable cycle. We were already in a longer term period of low activity with the weak peak in '13 and '12 delivered a big drought. 

So I'd probably move to a stage 2 alert, out of 5.

I have said in each of the past several years that I thought the probability of major drought was low on account of the solar cycle. Although granted that's about a 1:7 or 12 bet, depending on how you define a major drought.

And for now, December is a nice time to have a drought if you have to have one.

BTW, Long term solar minimums are highly associated with low global mean temperatures. Currently we are experiencing record highs most years. I'll leave that to marinate since I don't want to be swarmed by a flock of angry flying keyboard warrior monkeys.

[sdholloway56]

Solar Cycle Progression | NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center

[sdholloway56]

Solar Cycle 24 actually spiked to a high in Nov '11 and made sort of a double top in Feb '14. Both were pretty weak compared to past peaks.

The current spike is pretty punky even by comparison, but definitely bears watching.

Also need to remember that the current high temps put around 7% more moisture in the atmosphere than the long term mean. I don't claim to know what that measn other than to remember there are no perfect anaologies.

Regardless, if a high locks in over the MW for 12 weeks at the wrong time, it will be a drought.