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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, December 11, 2018 (Report Day)

At the close, the March corn futures finished 3/4¢ higher at $3.84 3/4. May futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.92 1/4.
 
January soybean futures settled 5 1/4¢ higher at $9.15. March soybean futures closed 5 1/2¢ higher at $9.28.

March wheat futures finished 4 1/4¢ lower at $5.21.



 

January soymeal futures settled 0.90¢ per short ton higher at $310.90.

January soy oil futures closed 0.20 higher at 28.96¢ per pound.

 



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.08 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 53 points lower.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

 

At mid-session, the March corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.83. May futures are unchanged at $3.91.
 
January soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $9.12. March soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $9.25.


 

March wheat futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $5.21.



 

January soymeal futures are 1.00¢ per short ton higher at $311.00.

January soy oil futures are 0.13 higher at 28.89¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.57 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 85 points lower.

 

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USDA SAYS:

U.S. 2019 Ending Stocks

 

Corn=   1.781 billion bushels vs. the USDA's last month estimate of 1.736 bill. bu. and the trade's expectations of 1.736 bill. bu.

 

Soybeans= 955 million bushels vs. vs. the USDA's last month estimate of 955 million and the trade's expectations of 936 million bushels.

 

South America Production

 

Brazil corn= 94.5 mmt. vs. the USDA's last month estimate of 94.5 mmt and the trade's expectations of 94.5 mmt.

 

Brazil soybeans=  122.5 mmt. vs. the USDA's last month estimate of 120.5 mmt and the trade's expectations of 121.1 mmt.

 

Argentina  corn= 42.5 mmt. vs. the USDA's last month estimate of 42.5 mmt and the trade's expectations of 42.3 mmt.

 

Argentina soybeans= 55.0 mmt. vs. the USDA's last month estimate of 55.5 mmt and the trade's expectations of 55.7 mmt..

 

Global 2019 Ending Stocks:

 

Corn=   308.8 million metric tons vs. the USDA's last month estimate of 307.5 mmt and the trade's expectations of 307.2 mmt.

 

Soybeans= 115.33 mmt vs. the USDA's last month estimate of 112.1 mmt and the trade's expectations of 113.1 mmt. This number is today's ugliest number as it keeps getting bigger.

 

Wheat=   268.1 mmt. vs. the USDA's last month estimate of 266.7 mmt and the trade's expectations of 266.4 mmt.

 

Trade Response:

--Cory Bratland, Kluis Advisors, says the report is fairly quiet.
“I don’t see any surprises in this report.
“Investors should stay disciplined, sellers rallies and notice that cash basis levels are narrowing,” Bratland says.
Bratland adds, “Going forward, without any new news, these markets will trade sideways.
There is trade talk that China is expected soon to announce a purchase of U.S. soybeans between 5-8.0 million metric tons, Bratland says.
“Let’s see if that happens. Plus, the market is aware that South America begins its soybean harvest in a few weeks.

 

--Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that corn, beans and wheat are trading either side on unchanged after the 11:00 release of the USDA's monthly WASDE report. 
“In typical fashion, the December releasing came with few surprises.  Corn usage for ethanol was lowered by 50 million bushels to 5.6 billion projected for the year.  This is the first time since 2012 that we have seen a decline in usage in the Sept-Dec quarter as compared to the prior year. 
O’Connell adds, “This and a slight change to corn imports brought our projected ending stocks up slightly to 1.781 billion bushels. 
The domestic balance sheet for soybeans was unchanged while the global balance sheet saw slight increases in production in Brazil and Nigeria, O’Connell says. 
“Brazil's production is estimated at 122 million metric tons,” O’Connell says. 

 

---Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities analyst, agrees that the report is fairly quiet.

“No major surprises on today's usda crop production report , the production for corn and soybeans were left unchanged ,as well as yield , lower demand was the focus on this report, corn ending stocks were increased with lower ethanol usage, world ending stocks increased in soybeans with Brazil increasing production.”

 

 

What say you?

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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4 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, December 11, 2018 (Report Day)

Hello stranger, where you been?   Smiley Happy  none of my business    

 

A report with "no surprises" is about best we can hope for   Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, December 11, 2018 (Report Day)

The first floor talk in about three weeks. 

 

Must have been one heck of an office Christmas party.  Smiley Wink

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, December 11, 2018 (Report Day)

BA DEERE,

 

Good to hear from you. I have had back problems. Two discs herniated and have been laid up a bit. Headed for a surgery in the future. Glad to be back, for now, though. I'm back to try and get China to start buying and to get this 9.00 market to at least $10.00. Let's see if I can do it.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, December 11, 2018 (Report Day)

We all wish you the best Mike and don`t thank you often enough, you`re sure missed when you`re gone for more than a weekend.