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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk December 11

At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 2 1/2 cents higher at $4.38. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 3 1/2 cents higher at $13.41. March wheat futures are 2 1/4 cents lower at $6.36 per bushel. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.80 per short ton higher at $439.10. The Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.24 higher at $40.35.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.62 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 86 points lower.


According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 944,000 barrels per day (b/d)—or 39.65 million gallons daily. That is up 31,000 b/d from the week before and the highest of the year. In fact, last week’s output was the highest since the first week of 2012. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 922,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 14.13 billion gallons. That’s up more than 16% from the four-week average covering January 2013.

Stocks of ethanol rebounded to 15.4 million barrels—a 7-week high. That is a 2.1% increase from last week.





In early trading:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $4.36. The Jan. soybean futures contract is trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $13.35. March wheat futures are 1/4 of a cent lower at $6.38 per bushel. The Jan. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.60 per short ton lower at $436.70. The Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.15 higher at $40.26.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.12 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points lower.




At 8:10am:


--USDA announces Tuesday that an unknown bought 120,000 tons of U.S. corn for 2013-14 delivery.




At 7:10am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 3-5 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.58 per barrel lower.

Wall Street=Seen lower, as worries hover about U.S. budget deal and Fed tapering.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower, Europe stocks higher.


More in a minute,



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6 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 11

A few weeks back, we all had the breakeven discussion. Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities put the same question out to his newsletter readers. Here is what he reported to be the answers:


Al stated, "You reported corn breakevens as low at $4.00 and as high as $5.43. For soybeans it went from $10.00 to $11.08."

He adds: "One customer, Brad, pointed out one possible reason for the wide range: "Unfortunately, you should have defined what you mean by breakeven as everyone will have a different meaning.  My breakeven is defined using a complete cash flow not just seed, fertilizer, chem., crop ins., repairs, equipment, and rent.  It also includes labor, supplies, prop taxes, living expenses, property taxes, insurance etc.  So basically, anything that the farm is expected to pay is included in the breakeven. At 175 bu corn and 50 bu beans my breakevens are $4 and $10."




Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 11

Bullish information:


Uruguay is the first country to legalize Marijuana.   Less corn and soybean acres planted in the future.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 11

Morning Mike - Hope your day off yesterday was a good one ! And may I add -- your back up by Jeff was nothing short of Stellar  ----- cough - cough - chock  -- Smiley SurprisedSmiley Very Happy


But have a couple things with the report of yesterday - Imports were raised to 10 million - What is up here ? Is this from the dam Chinese buying Smithfield ? and there importing more SA beans ?


Exports up - Ethanol up - but can be taken away with a blink of the eye - with higher yields= bigger crop AND the feed use --- to me that's way to high -- like a billion higher than last year - think that's right -


This war on trade is not over with the chim chons - another boat rejected and maybe 3 more to boot may not make it  - this has to do with the US accusing china with  dumping cheap stuff on US markets -NOT on GMO corn !


And it's that time of the year - Cold weather and the Mississippi - read where its getting low and the USCOE may work on moving more rock out - maybe one way traffic


Well -Guess its time to go play in the snow






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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 11

In kansas a farmer is on trial and jailed for raising M to supply the legal colorado market.  It is a demand you do and demand if you don't market.

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Frequent Contributor

Miss River is low.

The Corps is blasting and removing rocks along the channel.

No mention of how it will affect traffic.

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Miss River is low.

Something we may want to think about, although I don't really see an answer-from our seat in the peanut gallery

Seems Japan and China is having one of their usual arguements over who has control over which islands

Recently, China announced a no fly zone over part of these islands and water, with out prior permission[ commercial and miltary]

The USA promptly flew over this zone with no prior notice to China. I'm not sure what Japan may or may not have done

It seems that there may be a possibility of oil or other resources in the disputed islands vicinity[I think in the waters, but not sure]

You all know that china wants any and all resources they can get, by any means. It is their national security to access raw materials

Add to this the close distance of these islands to the mainland of china and what ever is called Japan, that one begins to get the picture

Most nations have a zone out side the main land that they call their security zone or something like that

Well, Japan and China both have their zone over part of the islands - what is it a 200 mile zone?? over water and islands in this situation

Somebody must have more info-as I have very little to say on this issue, that might be factual


So: perhaps this rejected corn issue,  may be just one more small way for China to play hard ball with the USA who of course is on the side ofJapan. Who knows what china may think or do

I doubt the BO administration is concerned about a few boat loads of corn vs. the USA treaty [maybe friendship treaty is a better way to describe] with Japan and their [Japan] claim to these islands and vicinity

Seems like some things may have their priorities

I really have no idea

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