Floor Talk December 11

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures settled 4 cents lower at $3.75 1/4. January soybean futures finished 7 1/2 cents lower at $8.70 3/4. 
March wheat futures ended 5 cents lower at $4.90 1/2. 
Jan. soymeal futures ended $0.10 per short ton lower at $273.70. Jan. soyoil futures closed $0.43 lower at $31.36.  
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $1.11 lower per barrel reaching a 7-year low, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 252 points lower.

Mike

---------

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $3.74. January soybean futures are trading 7 1/4 cents lower at $8.71. 
March wheat futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $4.93. 
Jan. soymeal futures are $1.00 per short ton lower at $272.80. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.26 lower at $31.53.  
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $1.10 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 288 points lower.

Jacob Burks, WedBush Futures Inc. grain analyst, says that sellers are seeing an opportunity Friday.
“I don’t think the WASDE markets have any effect on this market.  Crude being lower with stock market falling off signals a good opportunity to take profit from yesterday’s pop,” Burks says.

Mike

------------

At 11am:

WASDE RELEASES BASELINE PROJECTIONS FOR NEXT 10 YEARS; 2016 CORN CROP SEEN AS 2nd LARGEST EVER.

2016 Acreage:

Corn= 90.5 million creating a crop that would be up 200 million to 13.9 billion bushels. If realized, it would be the 2nd largest crop ever.

Soybeans= 82.0 million acres, propducing a crop that woud be down 2.0 million bushels, but if realized wold be the 3rd largest crop ever.

2016 Avg. Prices:

Corn= $3.60 per bushel vs. $3.65 in 2015.

Soybeans= $8.65 vs. $8.90 in 2015.

The comments from the WASDE speech included this thought: "With three consecutive years of bumper crops since thre 2012 drought, low commodity prices could be seen into 2018.

What are your thoughts?

Mike

----------

At 10:30am:

Heading towards the March corn futures are trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $3.76. January soybean futures are trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $8.73. 
March wheat futures are trading 5 1/2 cents lower at $4.90. 
Jan. soymeal futures are $0.60 per short ton lower at $273.20. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.27 lower at $31.52.  
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $0.72 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 246 points low.

Mike

------------

At 9am:

In its earliest schedule for a long time, WASDE will release the 10-year trendline report today. Remember, this gives their estimates of US supply and demand numbers for the next 10 years. It also offers the first look at next year's U.S. acreage. Any guesses as to how many corn and soybean acres the WASDE will estimate, this morning?

Mike

----------

At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures are trading 1 cent higher at $3.80. January soybean futures are trading 5 cents higher at $8.84. 
March wheat futures are trading 2 cents higher at $4.98. 
Jan. soymeal futures are $2.40 per short ton higher at $276.30. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.11 higher at $31.90.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.57 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 197 points lower.

Mike

------------

At 7:55am:

Ag News: Dow and DuPont have officially agreed to merge. What do you think this does to the agricultural sector, as more of your suppliers merge?

Mike

------------

At 7:45am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.54 lower.
Dollar =Lower.  
Wall Street = Seen lower, with retail sales and oil in focus.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[hardnox]

Other than as a matter of principle its hard to say whether the merger affects pricing- it is already a classic price leader oligopoly.

The worst of them is nitrogen- with $2 NG the breakeven on urea is around $130, so there's a gross margin around 100% right now, similar for ammonia. There's 5-6 m/t/y US capacity said to be coming on line in the next couple years- let's see how pricing behaves.

To add insult to injury a portion of the N producer windfall is being directed to buying the democratic process. Although that's not a bad thing in the eyes of some.

[WCMO]

Thought this wrecking ball report came out in January.  Or, depress prices with this report now, and then again in January?

Merry Christmas!

[roarintiger1]

Baseline predictions?  In December?   I guess you have to feed those bears every day.    If their predictions are close to the truth for the next couple of years, they will be way off by the time 10 years rolls around.  There will be a huge return of acres to hay and CRP.  There are only so many times farmers can raise a crop at a loss.

[timetippingpt]

CRP acreage is capped. Congress will have to change that, which I am sure they will, but still it does have to be done.

[BA Deere]

The farmer`s share of the food dollar is 15.8¢ 

http://www.nfu.org/farmers-share 

So, the Koch`s are getting a declining doubling of their money on nitrogen?   They`re not raping us near the extent those that buy from us.   nitrogen is dropping pretty steadily right now, actually of all our inputs at least fertilzer has steeped up in cutting prices, where seed companies have done absolutely ZERO.

But, I`m still getting even with the Koch Brothers, i`m voting for Donald Trump!  😉