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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, December 13, 2018

At the close:

 

At the close, the March corn futures finished 1¢ lower at $3.84. May futures settled 1¢ lower at $3.91 3/4.

 

January soybean futures finished 13¢ lower at $9.07. March soybean futures closed 12 3/4¢ lower at $9.20.


 

March wheat futures ended 9 1/2¢ higher at $5.36.



 

January soymeal futures closed 4.10¢ per short ton lower at $308.50.

 January soy oil futures closed 0.21 lower at 28.83¢ per pound.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.44 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 47 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 10:55am:

 

At midsession, the March corn futures are 1¢ higher at $3.85 3/4. May futures are 1¢ higher at $3.93.

 

January soybean futures are 11¢ lower at $9.09. March soybean futures are 10 3/4¢ lower at $9.22.


 

March wheat futures are 9¢ higher at $5.35.



 

January soymeal futures are 2.30¢ per short ton lower at $309.80.

January soy oil futures are 0.29 lower at 28.75¢ per pound.

 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.75 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 94 points higher.

 

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the news of China buying U.S. soybeans may be baked into the market.
“The soybean market is setting up for a classic “Buy the rumor and sell the fact.” The market has already been creeping up in anticipation of China announcing a significant purchase of US soybeans. Can we sustain the rally after an announcement is made,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.


Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that it appears as if there was optimism regarding trade with China had been priced into the market already.
“China has purchased roughly 2 million tonnes of soybean, and are rumored to possibly purchase another 5 million tonnes. The market has rallied a dollar off of it's August lows and is now approaching an overbought condition,” O’Connell says.
O’Connell adds, “Traders could be looking to take profit on long positions - causing them to then be sellers - and push the market once again lower. We cannot forget among all of this trade commotion that we still have the highest stocks-to-use ration in U.S. history, with 955 million bushels in ending stocks.”
The U.S. prior stocks-to-use ratio record was in the 2006/07 marketing year at 574 million with prices sub $7.00.
“While a deal with China would feel good and the market would likely respond favorably, it will eventually have recon price against supply,” O’Connell says.

 

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At 8:00am:

In early trading, the March corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.85. May futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.92 1/4.

January soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $9.17 3/4. March soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $9.31.


March wheat futures are 4 3/4¢ higher at $5.31 1/4.


January soymeal futures are 0.10¢ per short ton higher at $312.70.

January soy oil futures are 0.09 lower at 28.95¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.43 lower, the U.S. dollar is higer, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 122 points higher.

 

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At 8:07am:

 

Overnight:

 

Corn= Mixed to off a 1/2¢ per bushel.

Soybeans= 2¢ lower per bushel.

Wheat=  5¢ higher.

 

Outside Markets:

 

Crude oil= 53¢ lower

U.S. Dollar= Higher

Dow= Up 1 point

 

News:

 

China is back in the U.S. soybean buying business. Separate from the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report, Thursday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 1,130,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
 
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

 

What say you?

---------------

On Thursday, the USDA released its Weekly USDA Sales Report Thursday. Here are the totals and the complete reports.

 

Corn= 1.064 million metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 1,000,000-1,500,000 mmt.

 

Soybeans= 795,300 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 750,000-1,000,000 mmt.

 

Wheat= 754,100 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 500,000-750,000 mt.

 

Soymeal= 50,500 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000-450,000 mt.

 

 

So, this is the USDA Report as it appears when released. Notice China was a reduction, but today's sale will be listed on net week's weekly report (unless canceled between now and then).

 

Corn: Net sales of 903,200 MT for 2018/2019 were down 23 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (608,400 MT, including 137,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,000 MT), Mexico (234,600 MT, including decreases of 96,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (146,500 MT, including 135,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (39,800 MT, including decreases of 3,600 MT), and New Zealand (30,000 MT). Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (220,100 MT) and El Salvador (1,000 MT). For 2019/2020, total net sales were reported for Mexico (161,400 MT). Exports of 952,100 MT were down 18 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (384,400 MT), Japan (201,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (146,500 MT), South Korea (68,400 MT), and Peru (45,000 MT).

 

 

Soybeans: Net sales of 792,300 MT for 2018/2019 were down 11 percent from the previous week, but up 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Netherlands (140,600 MT, including 146,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 9,500 MT), Saudi Arabia (131,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (124,700 MT, including 39,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT), Indonesia (109,100 MT, including 50,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 100 MT), and Taiwan (69,700 MT). Reductions were primarily for Switzerland (60,000 MT), China (60,000 MT), and unknown destinations (39,600 MT). For 2019/2020, total net sales were reported for Japan (3,000 MT). Exports of 1,146,800 MT were down 8 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Thailand (153,000 MT), the Netherlands (140,600 MT), Mexico (115,600 MT), Taiwan (77,200 MT), and Indonesia (76,500 MT).

 

 

Wheat: Net sales of 754,100 metric tons for 2018/2019 were up 6 percent from the previous week and 62 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (210,600 MT), Japan (111,900 MT), Nigeria (89,000 MT), Singapore (65,000 MT), and Mexico (61,700 MT, including decreases of 19,900 MT). Reductions were for the Dominican Republic (700 MT) and the United Kingdom (600 MT). Exports of 490,700 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (86,200 MT), Indonesia (74,300 MT), Thailand (57,100 MT), the Philippines (55,300 MT), and Yemen (51,000 MT).

 

Mike

 

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4 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, December 13, 2018

So, if I did my math correct that was 41+ million bu. of beans sold to China. A good start. Glad your back ( no pun intended).  Keep up the good work!  

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, December 13, 2018

And beans are down 11 cents right now??????????????     They drop them because China says they will quit buying, they drop them when China does quit buying them, and now they drop them when China starts buying again.  What do the paper pushers want???

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Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, December 13, 2018

Resolved trade war. That's the only thing that'll push it back up. 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, December 13, 2018

1.13 mmt is now somehow roughly 2 mmt
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