Floor Talk December 15

[marketeye]

If you missed it earlier, here is a fresh soybean sale announced Tuesday:

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2015/2016 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Mike

--------

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures settled 1 3/4 cents lower at $3.77 1/4. January soybean futures ended 7 cents lower at $8.67 1/4. 
March wheat futures finished 3/4 of a cent higher at $4.94 1/4. 
Jan. soymeal futures closed $3.70 per short ton lower at $271.80. Jan. soyoil futures finished $0.42 lower at $30.70.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.93 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 163 points higher.

Mike

----------

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $3.76. January soybean futures are trading 6 1/4 cents lower at $8.67. 
March wheat futures are trading unchanged at $4.93. 
Jan. soymeal futures are $2.00 per short ton lower at $273.50. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.53 lower at $30.59.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.87 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 194 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group Senior Market Analyst, says that light volume due to holiday trading mode has the markets lower. 
“People are waiting for the FED’s interest rate decision tomorrow and also a reason to do something.  People think the conditions in South America are good, although I think they are a little less than perfect and people are being overly optimistic,” Scoville says.  Scoville adds, “But, I am one of the few I think and I am not pushing it.  The crush was a little weaker than expected and created some selling.  People talking weaker demand, I think mostly because of the higher dollar.” 
U.S. weather is very unseasonal, but still not much cash crop moving.
“We are more and more interested in Santa and South America than what is going on right here in Chicago’s trading room,” Scoville says.

Mike

--------------

At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents lower at $3.77. January soybean futures are trading 2 cents lower at $8.71. 
March wheat futures are trading 6 cents lower at $4.87. 
Jan. soymeal futures are $0.30 per short ton lower at $275.20. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.35 lower at $30.77.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.22 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points lower.

Mike

--------------

At 7:15am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents lower and wheat 2-4cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.54 higher.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher, with the Fed rate decision and oil in focus.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[sw363535]

Mike does the smaller soybean crush number tell us anything about the size of the 2015 crop??

Or is it reduced capacity?  Can't be lack of sales that would have raised the price.

maybe exports are bighting into available supply??  any idea?

[marketeye]

Great questions. I'm in search of great answers, Sw.

Thanks,

Mike

[marketeye]

sw,

Here's what I collected for you. The weak crush numbers for November is a function of poor soymeal sales and farmers holding relatively tight on bean sales. As a result, slower than expected crush.

NOPA November crush= 156.12 million bushels, 5 million bushels below the average trade guess and 3.2% lower than November 2014.  The trade overshot November domestic meal demand by roughly 100,000 short tons.  The trade has overestimated the past three crush reports.

I hope this helps,

Mike

[roarintiger1]

We are more and more interested in Santa and South America than what is going on right here in Chicago’s trading room,” Scoville says.

Ain't that the truth............................Nothing's changed.   It's been that way for months

[elcheapo]

how true......the people running the markets are worried about a fictious person and things 5,000 miles away, rather than

we poor folk just down the road........

and you tell me I don't understand the markets.......markets ????????????

[sw363535]

Scovallll statememt is somewhat of a here's a "stick in your eye".......  Hope when we are out there looking for a job he will be as well.

Or maybe he already is and that explains the sarcasm....

The fed may not be able to bring his Christmas "cheer"....   But the lack of any interest payment to our "savers" for so long has got to be very discouraging...  Those without huge funds to invest are sure limited on their choices.

I notice many watching the stock market nervously...  It has been a long stretch in this position for interest rates..

[rayjenkins]

is there a book for interpreting "stick in your eye" statements??

I sure didn't take it that way....simply said folks are focuing on Christmas and South American weather more than Chicago board price action right now.....

must be missing something....what is it??

[k-289]

SW    refresh my memory on how far back the ''stock market folks'' were grimmacing over the $ movement  - either direction --- I'm undecided on the daily antics of excuses I see the general population bombarded with the substance of  '' expertism '' met with more '' scepticism '' each passing day --- Out of oil - out of food - feed the world- out of water - out of air - the later being gobbled up at an accelerated rate  M-F at @ 09;oo at the opening bell --- I heard say a wise man said  the FED should step back and reflect on the whole beltway and couple the comparrison of interest rates to approval ratings - interesting ---               

[sw363535]

Ray-- it may be an over reaction but he is being asked for comments on the market and he gives us an sharp reminder of how important the whole thing is to him..

“We are more and more interested in Santa and South America than what is going on right here in Chicago’s trading room,” Scoville says.

Sounds a bit "above you all" as I read it..... Too much of our economy is on vacation mentally at work....

289 --- exactly and well put,, we are in a cliche universe where very little real information is granted.  And sadly that is enough for most of the public...  And most of the information marketers.