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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 19

What do you think? Is that likely? Will U.S. farmers plant 99.0 million acres of corn in 2013?

 

Entirely possible, still more acres of southern Iowa alps torn up this fall. This is marginal 75 bu ground. could make 125 IF the weather Gods smile on us all season. Could make 30 too.

 

I'm not so sure everything is as good financially out here in farm country as it is purported to be.

Unless something changes for the better out in my area of NW Kansas moisture wise, I know two farms that were planted last year will be summer fallowed.

 

As far as here in South Podunk Country I am planning on a slightly higher corn than bean mix.

 

The idiots in charge never learn .... increase the acres = decrease the yield/acre. You may very well get more total bu, BUT not at trend line yields. The dirty little secret is that it costs almost as much to plant those acres for 75 bu as the best in the same area for 175bu/acre. Crop insurance makes almost no distinction  between the two acres in this area of Iowa.

I'm thinking there will be a blood letting next year if this all comes to pass and we see $9 beans and $4.25 corn.  I might even be able to upgrade a corn head.Smiley Happy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk December 19

$4.25 corn WOW what kind of average are you putting on that 99 million acres...

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 19

Informa's track record lately has been poor.   But I suppose every dog has its day.   Heck, new crop corn starts with a 5 already...that is a pretty good price for anyone buying.

 

Don't overthink this market.  Doing the same thing it did last year.  Punishing anyone who still needs to make year end sales.  Last year, with bigger carryovers,  there was a big penalty for selling cash in Dec. vs. Feb.    A good pull back in prices would sure make the spring rally more robust, I would think.  See plenty of grain going to town, I suppose a few accountants told some guys they needed more income this year with the 179 expense being so small next year.  

 

Somewhere, someone is going to have to seed some acres to hay, or ship all the cattle somewhere else. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 19

BC: It's not the numbers that count... it is the perception that is all that matters.

South America is going to pull a great crop from now till March and with harvest starting there right now they will be able to follow that with a great bumper corn second crop to fill in before we even get into pollination next summer.

 

Then with our record acres and trend line yields, that will flood the market with at least 30 billion bu in the next 12 months.

 

(US ... 99 million x 170ish trend line = 16.8ish Billion bushels

 South America with 2 crops in that same time (the one growing now and the second crop) and they will surely up their acres so give them a conservative 14 billion combined total and there you have it) The South Africans will throw in all they can raise in their "golden triangle" just for bonus points and we will be using corn as fertilizer.

 

Might get a revision from me clear up to and including a $3. 40/bu price now that I really think about it.

 

What could possibly screw up their #'s?

 

 

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Senior Advisor

My question is ........

....... if the Midwest remains dry through the winter, and early planting opportunities result next spring, will farmers hedge their bets after seeing poor results this last year and hold back on corn/corn and plant more soy?  Or will they see early planting as the best opportunity for making out on c/c?

 

This scenario would ceretainly be affected by the results of the S American crop outcome. And insurance could easily cover the possible set backs of C/C. I'll guarantee high fertilizer prices - just to make the decision easier.

 

What would you do?

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk December 19

Corn and Soybean Digest has an article on legislation passed in Brazil. Dec. 13, 2012 new laws are prohibiting the development of new farmland and 75 million acres already converted has to be put back to forest. The new law has the farmers who destroyed the forest paying to put it back. Tree huggers gone wild! I guess we need 99 million acres of corn here, so plow up the pastures and level off the hills. We can fix it later.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk December 19

The acres could easily be achieved but the over 150's yield has me skeptical.. Maybe if the weather changes... 

 

Per calculations I have made an estimate it takes close to $7 a bushel to grow, harvest, and ship safrinha corn to a barge in the sea..  No profit for farmer yet.....

 

Corn under $5 and alot of guys will need to be creative....

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Contributor

Re: Floor Talk December 19

alot of acres in the south that might have went to corn got planted in wheat

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 19

LMAO!  99,000,000 acres . . . it may be planted but it will not be harvested unless it rains, and it AIIN'T raining!  Now I know why they are really named "MIsinforma"!    John

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk December 19

Yea, Faust, not sure where all those acres will come from!!! It sure as hell will not come from any Iowa farms located north of I-80, and this is about 2/3 or more of all Iowa corn acres. Every little piece of dirt in Iowa north of Interstate I-80 was already planted in 2012. There just isn't any more Iowa land that can go to row-crops in 2013, that wasn't farmed already in 2012. They are really off-base if they think the northern 2/3 of Iowa can bring anymore land into production in 2013, that wasn't farmed in 2012. We are just plum-out of anymore tillable acres to bring into row-cropping in 2013. I suppose I can till-up the 1 to 2 acres or so around all my Tin Cans and corn drying equipment on one of my farms. But somehow I don't think this will help much!!!!!!! LOL

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