Floor Talk December 19
At the close:
At the close, the March corn futures settled 3¢ lower at $3.53 1/4. January soybean futures finished 15 1/4¢ lower at $10.21 1/2, while March soybean futures closed 14 3/4¢ lower at $10.32. March wheat futures finished 4 1/4¢ lower at $4.05. January soy meal futures finished $4.90 short ton lower at $312.20. January soy oil futures closed $0.18 lower at 36.56¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.16 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 45 points higher.
Dustin Johnson, Senior Strategist for AgYield/EHedger.
“I think it’s just one more weekend past without a South American crop-weather event arriving,” Johnson says.
Accumulated export soybean sales are running 4% above where the U.S. should be on the 5-year average pace of the WASDE estimates.
“This means if sales continue on this pace fore the remainder of the marketing year, add roughly 80 million bushels of total soybean demand,” Johnson says.
Johnson adds, “Leftover carryout is still very abundant, even with the demand. Therefore, I think it has to come down to a South American weather problem for this rally to continue and every weekend that it doesn't is critical.”
At mid-session, the March corn futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $3.51 3/4. January soybean futures are 13 3/4¢ lower at $10.23, while March soybean futures are 13 1/4¢ lower at $10.33. March wheat futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $4.04. January soy meal futures are $4.30 short ton lower at $312.80. January soy oil futures are $0.28 lower at 36.46¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is even, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points higher.
Alan Brugler, President Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says that the soybean market is taking back last week’s profits.
“Not sure if this is really much of a sell off in the beans. Still in the upper Bollinger channel, above the 40-day average. Mostly just reversing Thur-Fri action,” Brugler says.
He adds, “The market is getting dragged down by the rain in Argentina, Brazil’s SAFRAS hiking projected Brazilian crop to 106.1 MMT, and weakness in both soy oil and soy meal.”
If you missed the 8am USDA Report, here it is:
Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
--Export sales of 264,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/2017 marketing year; and
--Export sales of 128,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2016/2017 marketing year.
The marketing year for corn and soybeans began Sept. 1.
In early trading, the March corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.54. January soybean futures are 10 1/2¢ lower at $10.26, while March soybean futures are 10 3/4¢ lower at $10.36. March wheat futures are 3/4¢ lower at $4.08. January soy meal futures are $3.40 short ton lower at $313.70. January soy oil futures are $0.25 lower at 36.49¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.20 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points higher.
Wheat was higher in overnight trading as extremely low temperatures in much of winter growing country may have led to winterkill. The weather has been extremely cold in the eastern Midwest and southern Plains (along with pretty much the entire northern two-thirds of the country), worrying growers in fields that lack sufficient snow cover. In other news, money manangers were more bearish on corn and beans last week amid ample supplies.
Here's what happened overnight:
Brent Crude Oil = 0.8% higher.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.1% higher.
Dollar = up 0.1%.
Wall Street = U.S. stock futures modestly higher in overnight trading.
World Markets = Global stocks mixed amid fluctuating dollar.