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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, December 20, 2018

At the close:

 

At the close, the March corn futures finished 6 1/2¢ lower at $3.75 1/4. May futures closed 6 3/4¢ lower at $3.83.

 

January soybean futures settled 6 1/2¢ lower at $8.93 1/2. March soybean futures finished 6 3/4¢ lower at $9.06 1/4.


 

March wheat futures finished 1¢ higher at $5.23 1/2.


 

January soymeal futures closed 0.10¢ per short ton lower at $307.70.

 January soy oil futures finished 0.24 lower at 28.48¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.00 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 475 points lower.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

 

At midsession, the March corn futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $3.77. May futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $3.85.

 

January soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $8.96 3/4. March soybean futures are 3 1/2¢ lower at $9.09.


 

March wheat futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $5.25.


 

January soymeal futures are 1.40¢ per short ton higher at $309.20.

January soy oil futures are 0.20 lower at 28.52¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.04 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 334 points lower.

 

Pete Meyer, SPGlobal senior market analyst, says that current Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans is a start, but falls short.

 

“The Chinese purchases of 3.5 million metric tons, so far, is a proverbial drop in the bucket when compared to last year’s roughly 36.0 mmt. in total purchases. While ultimately helpful, it remains our opinion that China will need to buy somewhere between 8.0 mmt and 10.0 mmt just to get to the export estimate of 1.9 billion bushels in the December WASDE,” Meyer says.

 

Meyer adds, “The market is also well aware that Brazilian supplies are just around the corner and while there are some concerns about recent dryness in southern growing areas, any loss of production should be offset by other areas of the country.”

 

The USDA estimated Brazilian production at 122.0 mmt in December, up 1.5 mmt from November, in a month that usually sees very little change, Meyer says.

 

“USDA also raised Brazilian exports from 77.0 mmt to 81 mmt, now 52% of total global exports against roughly a 33% market share for U.S. exporters. In our opinion, U.S. exporters still have a long way to go, while Brazil readies its exports for market,” Meyer says.

 

Mike

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At the open:

 

At the open, the March corn futures unchanged at $3.81. May futures are unchanged at $3.89.

January soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $9.03. March soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $9.15.


 

March wheat futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $5.25.



 

January soymeal futures are 0.90¢ per short ton higher at $308.70.

 January soy oil futures are 0.02 lower at 28.70¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.41 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 23 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 8:20am:

 

Overnight:

 

Corn= Up 1¢.

Soybeans= 2¢ higher per bushel.

Wheat= 3¢ higher.

 

Outside Markets:

 

Crude oil= 1.41¢ lower

U.S. Dollar= Lower

Dow= Down 23 points

 

Big News:

What do you know?

----------------

At 8:37am:

 

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report showed that corn and soybean sales kicked you know what and took names.

 

Corn= 2.516 million metric vs. the trade’s expectations of between 2,300,000-2,900,000 mt.

 

Soybeans=2.962 mmt. vs. trade’s expectations of between 2,100,000-2,700,000 mmt.

 

Wheat= 313,600 mt. vs.trade’s expectations of between 500,000-750,000mt.

 

Soymeal=300,000 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 100,000-450,000 mt.

 

Mike

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On Thursday, separate from the USDA Weekly Export Sales, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
--Export sales of 204,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2018/2019 marketing year;
--Export sales of 257,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year;
--Export sales of 100,000 metric tons of soybean meal for delivery to Colombia during the 2018/2019 marketing year;
--Export sales of 426,800 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 373,455 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year and 53,345 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year.
The marketing year for corn and soybeans began Sept. 1; soybean cake and meal began Oct. 1.

 

Mike

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FYI:

So, here is the narrative reports from the USDA Weekly Export Sales Reports. In case you wanted to see who the big buyers were.

 

Soybeans: Net sales of 2,835,600 MT for 2018/2019--a marketing-year high--were up noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. 

 

Increases were reported for China (1,561,000 MT), Mexico (324,300 MT, including decreases of 3,000 MT), the Netherlands (184,500 MT, including 172,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,700 MT), Germany (170,000 MT), and Egypt (168,700 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,300 MT). 

 

Reductions were for unknown destinations (231,600 MT).  For 2019/2020, net sales of 127,800 MT were reported for unknown destinations (125,000 MT) and Japan (2,800 MT). 

 

Exports of 1,337,800 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 23 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The destinations were primarily to the Netherlands (184,500 MT), Germany (170,000 MT), Taiwan (164,100 MT), Spain (122,300 MT), and Japan (84,900 MT). 

 

Corn: Net sales of 1,974,400 MT for 2018/2019--a marketing-year high-- were up noticeably from the previous week and up 87 percent from the prior 4-week average. 

 

Increases were reported for Mexico (1,339,000 MT, including decreases of 12,600 MT), Japan (391,200 MT, including 80,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 8,300 MT), Colombia (189,900 MT, including 115,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 18,000 MT), the Philippines (50,000 MT), and Canada (13,000 MT). 

 

Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (40,700 MT) and Jamaica (1,600 MT).  For 2019/2020, total net sales were reported for Mexico (542,600 MT). 

 

Exports of 975,600 MT were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. 

 

The destinations were primarily to Mexico (333,100 MT), Japan (292,300 MT), Colombia (145,200 MT), Taiwan (74,800 MT), and the Dominican Republic (44,100 MT

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