cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, December 4, 2019

At 11:30am;

The Renewable Fuels Association sent out a press release Wednesday highlighting the weekly ethanol production. Looks like plants are burning through corn. And, the U.S. has to import some ethanol too.

According to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association for the week ending Nov. 29, ethanol production ticked 1,000 barrels per day (b/d) higher, or 0.1%, to 1.060 million b/d—equivalent to 44.52 million gallons daily and the tenth consecutive week of expanded output. The four-week average ethanol production rate rose by 1.2% to 1.046 million b/d, equivalent to an annualized rate of 16.04 billion gallons.

Ethanol stocks climbed 1.8% to 20.6 million barrels after three weeks of declines. However, inventories were 10.4% lower than the same week last year. Stocks increased in all PADDs except the Rocky Mountain region (PADD 4).

Imports of ethanol arriving into the West Coast were 11,000 b/d, or 3.23 million gallons for the week. This was the third straight week that ethanol was imported into the U.S. (Weekly export data for ethanol is not reported simultaneously; the latest export data is as of September 2019.)

 

What say you?

 

Mike

-------------

 
 
 
 

At midsession:

 

At midsession, the March corn futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $3.78 1/4. May corn futures are 3¢ lower at $3.84 1/2.

Jan. soybean futures are 7 1/2¢ higher at $8.78 1/4. March soybean futures are 7 1/4¢ higher at $8.92 1/4.

March wheat futures are 1¢ higher at $5.26 1/2.



January soymeal futures are $2.30 per short ton higher at $297.00.

 January soy oil futures are 0.19 cents higher at 30.38¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.26 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 196 points higher.

Mike

----------

At 8:45am:

In early trading, the March corn futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $3.82 1/4. May corn futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $3.88 1/2.

Jan. soybean futures are 6 1/2¢ higher at $8.77 1/4. March soybean futures are 6 1/4¢ higher at $8.91 1/4.

March wheat futures are 3¢ higher at $5.28 1/2.



January soymeal futures are $1.70 per short ton higher at $296.40.

 January soy oil futures are 0.14 cents higher at 30.33¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.82 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 185 points lower.

On Wednesday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to Morocco during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybean oil began Oct.1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that trade war news could be baked into the market.

“Negative comments on the trade war are once again crowding the daily headlines. With corn and soybean prices near the lower end of multi-month trading ranges, traders may have already built a large portion of this bearish news into prices,” Kluis told customers in daily note.”

Kluis added, “Corn and soybean prices ended Tuesday quietly mixed. This was notable since CBOT wheat was a dime lower. Momentum indicators are trying to turn higher on the daily charts, which is a good sign. The bulls should quickly gain followers if we can get a close over the prior two-day high soon. One story that traders will continue to follow is year-to-date cumulative corn exports out of Brazil. Although the export pace has slowed over the past month, Brazil has exported more than double compared to last year.”

 

What say you?

 

Mike

 

0 Kudos
11 Replies
wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

China is now

Rebuilding hog numbers.. 

The ASF vaccine works so the logical thing is replace that 50% of hog numbers decimated by the disease over the past couple years. 

The afore takes more Corn and Beans too. 

I kinda figure the BR corn is going to China. 

0 Kudos
freedom1493
Veteran Advisor

Re: China is now

Q:

1.  Who manufactures this "working ASF vaccine"?

2.  How much does it cost?

3.  What country(s) is it available in?

4.  When will it be available in the United States?

=====

I see plenty of sources stating that China is rebuilding their herds due to biosecurity measures, but I don't see anything ANYWHERE that states they are crediting an ASF vaccine for it.  (The Chinese govt actually has been warning against "illegal ASF vaccines" because their farmers will try virtually anything to try to save their herds.)

October 18, 2019:

"At a briefing on Thursday, Yang Zhenhai, director of the Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said inventories at large farms have started to rebound.

Various supporting policies and market factors have helped boost confidence in (pig) farming significantly, and enthusiasm for production among small and big farmers is further improving,” Yang said."

https://o.canada.com/news/world/china-to-rebuild-hog-herd-by-next-year/wcm/8209e1ee-2e34-4d2e-9381-3...

...however, there is skepticism in the industry that the rebuilding of China's pig herds (because of biosecurity measures) will actually occur in the near term due to a variety of factors.

November 6, 2019 (article is based on a recent China Swine conference):

"Does ASF spell the end for small hog producers in China?

So much of the answer to this question depends on whether a vaccine is found for ASF. If no vaccine then it is likely that the role of finishing hogs will be left to large commercial operations as they have the capability of introducing the strict biosecurity measures required."

****

"Professor Qiu in his opening address at the conference outlined why he thought the development of vaccines in China to date had not been successful.

Firstly, there had been insufficient basic research – the issue being the complexity of African swine fevers biological characteristics and strain specificity. He noted that the ASF genome is huge with over half the genes still unknown, he described the infection and immune mechanisms as being very limited."

https://www.globalagritrends.com/blogs/analysis_china_reaches_a_crossroad_in_rebuilding_its_hog_indu...

...so as of November 6, 2019, nobody in China had as of yet developed an ASF vaccine.  It's their strict biosecurity that is said to be the genesis for their being able to rebuild their pig herds.

Scientists have been trying to solve the riddle of ASF for the last 60+ years (ASF has been said to be the largest virus known to man and highly complex). 

Interestingly, the person/entity who did the press release this last year --> They now have a $10 million Euro grant and are leading a consortium in the search for a marketable vaccine -- which they estimate will take another 4 years...at least.   

0 Kudos
wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Thee Link


@freedom1493 wrote:

Q:

1.  Who manufactures this "working ASF vaccine"?

2.  How much does it cost?

3.  What country(s) is it available in?

4.  When will it be available in the United States?

=====

I see plenty of sources stating that China is rebuilding their herds due to biosecurity measures, but I don't see anything ANYWHERE that states they are crediting an ASF vaccine for it.  (The Chinese govt actually has been warning against "illegal ASF vaccines" because their farmers will try virtually anything to try to save their herds.)

October 18, 2019:

"At a briefing on Thursday, Yang Zhenhai, director of the Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said inventories at large farms have started to rebound.

Various supporting policies and market factors have helped boost confidence in (pig) farming significantly, and enthusiasm for production among small and big farmers is further improving,” Yang said."

https://o.canada.com/news/world/china-to-rebuild-hog-herd-by-next-year/wcm/8209e1ee-2e34-4d2e-9381-3...

...however, there is skepticism in the industry that the rebuilding of China's pig herds (because of biosecurity measures) will actually occur in the near term due to a variety of factors.

November 6, 2019 (article is based on a recent China Swine conference):

"Does ASF spell the end for small hog producers in China?

So much of the answer to this question depends on whether a vaccine is found for ASF. If no vaccine then it is likely that the role of finishing hogs will be left to large commercial operations as they have the capability of introducing the strict biosecurity measures required."

****

"Professor Qiu in his opening address at the conference outlined why he thought the development of vaccines in China to date had not been successful.

Firstly, there had been insufficient basic research – the issue being the complexity of African swine fevers biological characteristics and strain specificity. He noted that the ASF genome is huge with over half the genes still unknown, he described the infection and immune mechanisms as being very limited."

https://www.globalagritrends.com/blogs/analysis_china_reaches_a_crossroad_in_rebuilding_its_hog_indu...

...so as of November 6, 2019, nobody in China had as of yet developed an ASF vaccine.  It's their strict biosecurity that is said to be the genesis for their being able to rebuild their pig herds.

Scientists have been trying to solve the riddle of ASF for the last 60+ years (ASF has been said to be the largest virus known to man and highly complex). 

Interestingly, the person/entity who did the press release this last year --> They now have a $10 million Euro grant and are leading a consortium in the search for a marketable vaccine -- which they estimate will take another 4 years...at least.   


Thee link is posted Here,  under Both the cattle and hog sections of agriculture. com.. 

That Is on the trials for the ASF vaccine.  It is an oral vaccine and is highly effective imunizing feral hogs in the wild. 

The trials were run in Spain I believe. 

BTW,  You are wasting time: the USA does not have asf thus no need for the vaccine. 

And a Co called Phibro invented the asf vac progression methods to advance things, not to long ago... Think I posted that breakthrough bout Aug 1st.

 

 

 

 

 

0 Kudos
rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Record ethanol production? Annualized production of 16 billion gallons?

Record ethanol production?  Annualized production of 16 billion gallons? 

  This suggests that ethanol producers anticipate that either a trade deal will result in increased ethanol exports, there will be substantially increased blending or both and want to get ahead of demand.

  We see.  If I had to guess, I'd guess that the trade deal won't get signed.  As it is, trump will have to make a real climb down to accept it and he probably can't do it in this election year.  And, if trump's history is any indication, he'll go the other way and levy the extra tariffs, just because he can.  Which will mean no increased ethanol exports.

  As for increased blending, that's a better possibility simply because the petroleum industry knows that it's important for trump after all the kerfuffle from the exemptions and everybody will be watching.

  My guess is that now that the fuel distributors know that they won't be able to not blend, they will try to blend as much as possible in order to meet their obligations and avoid buying RINS.  In fact, I think we'll see just how much ethanol they were able to avoid and just how important the RINS  system is to keeping the market honest.

  After all, there was a reason the refineries hated RINS so much, wasn't there?

0 Kudos
wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

Face It


@rickgthf wrote:

Record ethanol production?  Annualized production of 16 billion gallons? 

  This suggests that ethanol producers anticipate that either a trade deal will result in increased ethanol exports, there will be substantially increased blending or both and want to get ahead of demand.

  We see.  If I had to guess, I'd guess that the trade deal won't get signed.  As it is, trump will have to make a real climb down to accept it and he probably can't do it in this election year.  And, if trump's history is any indication, he'll go the other way and levy the extra tariffs, just because he can.  Which will mean no increased ethanol exports.

  As for increased blending, that's a better possibility simply because the petroleum industry knows that it's important for trump after all the kerfuffle from the exemptions and everybody will be watching.

  My guess is that now that the fuel distributors know that they won't be able to not blend, they will try to blend as much as possible in order to meet their obligations and avoid buying RINS.  In fact, I think we'll see just how much ethanol they were able to avoid and just how important the RINS  system is to keeping the market honest.

  After all, there was a reason the refineries hated RINS so much, wasn't there?


W


@rickgthf wrote:

Record ethanol production?  Annualized production of 16 billion gallons? 

  This suggests that ethanol producers anticipate that either a trade deal will result in increased ethanol exports, there will be substantially increased blending or both and want to get ahead of demand.

  We see.  If I had to guess, I'd guess that the trade deal won't get signed.  As it is, trump will have to make a real climb down to accept it and he probably can't do it in this election year.  And, if trump's history is any indication, he'll go the other way and levy the extra tariffs, just because he can.  Which will mean no increased ethanol exports.

  As for increased blending, that's a better possibility simply because the petroleum industry knows that it's important for trump after all the kerfuffle from the exemptions and everybody will be watching.

  My guess is that now that the fuel distributors know that they won't be able to not blend, they will try to blend as much as possible in order to meet their obligations and avoid buying RINS.  In fact, I think we'll see just how much ethanol they were able to avoid and just how important the RINS  system is to keeping the market honest.

  After all, there was a reason the refineries hated RINS so much, wasn't there?


face the Truth... 

Trump cannot trade his way out of a paper bag. ..

He has No Trading Skills or Ability. 

And DC's supposed " art of the deal? "....just happens to be that of filing another chapter 11.

0 Kudos
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Face It

Hmmm

 

Congress has pilfered the treasury and indebted the masses grandkids.

Who better and more experienced to oversee a bankruptcy and successful reset?

freedom1493
Veteran Advisor

Re: Thee Link

That Spanish scientist you referenced is now in charge of the multifaceted ASF-vaccine-development collaboration called the "VACDIVA Project."

The VACDIVA Project is a $10 million Euro (which he was just awarded) program, which came about because of the research he posted earlier this year.  He perceives the length of the program to be a 2-to-3-to-4-year project (he is unsure how long it will take but is hoping for less than 4 years).

"The VACDIVA Project, which will last the following four years, aims to develop an effective vaccine against African Swine Fever (ASF)."

https://www.bior.lv/en/about-bior/news/first-kick-meeting-project-vacdiva

https://twitter.com/ASFvacdiva/status/1197126732744146946

The Spanish guy said there are 2-4 options they are going to be working with to try to find the most viable and safe vaccine.  Here is his video lecture and his research.

https://www.pic.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2019/10/Pig-Improver_ASF_103019.pdf

=====

Every day, smuggled meat is brought into the United States .... U.S. farmers thinking there is currently a readily available ASF vaccine, when there is not, would be a huge misstep.

0 Kudos
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Thee Link

I believe that the ethanol plant in my neck of the woods has railed in three 90 unit trains of corn so far this fall.   We are in a corn deficit region.......obviously.    They are grinding around 80,000 bushels PER DAY!   Someone is making money.   The basis has not moved much all fall.   The price of the railed in corn has finally reached a point where they haven't had to raise the basis any more.  There certainly isn't much corn being stored in this area either.   The demand for corn is vastly understated by the USDA, while the total bushels available have been vastly overstated.   There is a day of reckoning headed our way.   

0 Kudos
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Thee Link

Feel free to order another few dozen unit train loads. We have the piles...

0 Kudos