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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 550
Registered: ‎09-09-2014
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Floor Talk December 7

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures closed 1 1/4¢ lower at $3.51 1/2. May futures finished 1 1/4¢ lower at $3.60. Jan. soybean futures settled 10 3/4¢ lower at $9.92.  March soybean futures ended 10 1/2¢ lower at $10.04 1/4. March wheat futures closed 3 3/4¢ lower at $4.21 1/2. January soy meal futures ended $7.10 per short ton lower at $335.20. January soy oil futures closed .16 higher at 33.33¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.70 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $3.51. May futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $3.59. Jan. soybean futures are 9 1/4¢ lower at $9.93.  March soybean futures are 9 1/4¢ lower at $10.05. March wheat futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $4.20. January soy meal futures are $5.10 per short ton lower at $337.20. January soy oil futures are steady at 33.17¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.64 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 103 points higher.

 

Mike

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In early trading:

At 9am, the March corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.50. May futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $3.59. Jan. soybean futures are 11 1/4¢ lower at $9.91.  March soybean futures are 11¢ lower at $10.03. March wheat futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $4.21. January soy meal futures are $4.00 per short ton lower at $338.30. January soy oil futures are 0.32 lower at 32.85¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.02 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 38 points higher.

 

The USDA's Weekly Export Sales shows that soybean sales beat trade expectations, while corn came in at the high end and wheat within.

 

Wheat =323,000 metric tons  vs. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000-400,000 metric tons,

Corn=  876,400 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 800,000-1,300,000 mt.

Soybeans= 2.08 million mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 900,000-1,700,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 186,400 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 150,000-300,000 mt.

 

Mike

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Soybeans were lower overnight, taking a step back from the recent rally above $10, as the dollar continued to strengthen. That in turn curbs the appeal of US goods for overseas buyers and causes concern about demand, which hasn't been very good this marketing year. Corn sales are down 27% year-over-year and soybean sales are down 18%, according to the USDA. Beans lost 7 cents overnight while corn was down just under a penny. Wheat was little changed. The good news is that ethanol output hit another record last week, and the pace of production may cause the USDA to raise its estimate for the amount of corn used to make the biofuel in next week's supply and demand report, Allendale said. In weather news, it's cold in Kansas this morning, and a winter weather advisory has been issued for all of western Michigan. Check out all the details in today's 3 Big Things at https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-december-7.

 

Brent Crude Oil = up 0.4%.

West Texas Intermediate = up 0.1%.

Dollar = up 0.2%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures mixed in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks higher overnight.

Contributor
Posts: 14
Registered: ‎03-26-2015
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Re: Floor Talk December 7

Rally overdone huh? Meanwhile farmers are sitting down with their bankers and trying to figure out how to make 2018 work with terrible high input costs on complete bs low prices for our crops,but dont you traders worry it's just our livlihood.
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,034
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Floor Talk December 7

How much corn is exported in the form of ethanol?

Senior Contributor
Posts: 320
Registered: ‎08-02-2012
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Re: Floor Talk December 7

Right wow the rally was futures soybeans anyway. Cash beans never got close to 10$. I love how these guys continue to overplay this market. Now figure another 30-40cents for basis cannot even get 3$ for corn. When these guys brag the market rallied and is up its a fraction of one cent then down 5-10 when it declines. On top of that these local cops switch to Jan. Cash prices on Dec. 15th, so I can only presume down another 30c by the end of next week.
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,034
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Floor Talk December 7

Illini, it's my guess that the basis is going to be even more of a problem in 2018 than it is now.  Basis tends to be a local market but futures is global.  A perceived weather problem in Brazil may rally the board, but it does not change how much grain is in Illinois bins, and the local buyers know this.

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,990
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: Floor Talk December 7

Friend went to big, expensive market meeting

Expect no improvement for at least 10 years

Put that into cash flow sheets
Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,495
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk December 7

Didn't we hear this same thing back in 2007 or so?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,329
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk December 7

Expect the unexpected
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,034
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Floor Talk December 7

Hobby,

How do you write a marketing plan that expects the unexpected?  I mean, is that the basis for your plan?  What happens if we don't get the unexpected and we're faced with low prices all year?

I think it's really hard to plan for the unexpected.  

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,990
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: Floor Talk December 7

Jim how do you make a marketing plan in
Markets we have now. Why lock in a price
Where you will not make much ?

Little if any carry. Same price for next 2 or 3
Years on the board...yet we sell and expott
More all the time