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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 7

Cheapo -  Remember Thomas Fuller expression of - it's darkest , right before dawn ---

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 7

Jim, The Plan has already worked beyond expectations .

 

45 years of doing with out, disasters, and living within the income stream have given me the attitude and where for all to scrap all those things  that seem to be your Achilles heal to happiness.

 

Not worried and obsessing over a plan  while bouncing along the bottom third of profitability.

Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 7

Well Jim this is the point in history where usda usually stips in with some sort of "helpful" guarantee to stop the whining.

In that action usually gives banking and farmers assistance to produce and effectively kills volatility in the US Markets.

 

So far that hasn't happened although crop insurance still promotes planting.

 

So the question that should be asked is ........"Is volatility dead?"  

 

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk December 7

I've been writing for weeks that I have nothing sold for 2018 but I have some sell orders on the books.

 

My approach this year is to look at the supply and demand, make an estimate as to where price will go.  Put some good-till-filled sell orders in where it makes sense, then wait and continually assess whether my prices are placed right.

 

Put in more good-till-filled orders to take advantage of weather rallies as they happen.  The hard part there is selling when it is close but not quite what I'd priced at.  Move them down?  I should have in beans this summer.

 

There is nothing in this about locking in low prices.  There is everything about taking what the market gives me.

 

What happens if the market never gets up to my prices?  At some point, I have to reassess and pick some new selling points.

 

What happens if the market explodes up and I'm sold short?  This is hard and I have to get out if I need to, or buy calls to cover (I really don't like to do that) or I hang in there and meet margin calls until the market gets back the way I want.  There is a danger of hanging in there too long and letting a loss get bigger than it need be because one fears it will turn around and whipsaw.

 

None of this involves sitting around hoping for a drought somewhere.

 

 

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