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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk February 10

At the close:

The March corn futures settled 5 1/4 cents lower at $6.31 3/4. The March soybean contract closed 1 1/2 cents higher at $12.29. The March wheat futures are trading 7 1/2 cents lower at $6.38 1/2.  The March soymeal futures ende $0.10 per short ton lower at $320.00. The March soyoil futures settled $0.10 lower at $52.53.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.99 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 128 points.

 

Mike

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At 11:41am:

The Renewable Fuels Association just released ethanol export numbers for 2011. Looks like a big year and looks like Brazil bought the most ethanol.

 

"The annual total for 2011 was 1.19 billion gallons, more than triple the 2010 export total of 396 mg. Brazil was the leading importer of U.S. ethanol in 2011, receiving 33% of total shipments. Exports accounted for approximately 8.6% of U.S. ethanol production in 2011, up from 3% in 2010 and 1% in 2009," according to the RFS statement.

"December exports of denatured ethanol totaled 136.5 mg, a new monthly record. Top destinations included Brazil (53.4 mg), Canada (36.7 mg), the United Kingdom (21.8 mg), United Arab Emirates (11.8 mg) and Oman (6.6 mg)."

 

Mike


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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures trade 2 1/2 cents lower at $6.34 1/2. The March soybean contract is trading 6 1/2 cents lower at $12.21. The March wheat futures are trading 7 1/2 cents lower at $6.38 1/2.  The March soymeal futures are trading $2.30 per short ton lower at $318.70. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.44 lower at $52.10.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.44 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 112 points.

 

One analyst says, "I think the market is holding pretty well given the dollar strength.  Some demand news about Egypt and China helpi9ng things.  Been pretty slow here so far."

 

One floor trader says, "The grains are lower today due to macroeconomic factors.  Greek debt negotiations have stalled rallying the dollar and conversely sending equities, energy, metals, and grains all lower."

 

Mike

-------

At 10:20am:

Corn has turned slightly higher.

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures trade 5 cents lower at $6.32 1/4. The March soybean contract is trading 9 cents lower at $12.18 3/4. The March wheat futures are trading 8 cents lower at $6.38.  The March soymeal futures are trading $3.40 per short ton lower at $317.60. The March soyoil futures are trading $0.44 lower at $52.10.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.74 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 131 points.

 

Mike

---------------

At 8:20am:

--USDA announces Friday that China bought 120,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for 2011-12.

--USDA announces  Friday that Egypt bought 240,000 mt of U.S. corn for 2011-12 delivery.

 

Mike

--------

At 6:35am:

 

News & Notes:

--Japan seeks 86,000 mt of food-wheat Friday.

--S. Korea buys 55,000 mt of U.S. wheat Friday.

--China's January soybean imports were estimated at 4.61 mmt, down 10% on-year. China's January corn exports were estimated at 2,310 mt, triple vs. a year ago.

--China's U.S. DDG imports  are expected to reach 6.0 mmt by 2016, according to the U.S. Grains Council.

 

Mike

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--At 6:00am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 7-9 cents lower, and wheat 7-9 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$1.29 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen tradinglower ahead of consumer data report. Also, today's U.S. trade deficit data, for December, is expected to show a rise. China's trade numbers for January are down, further indicating a slowdown in its economy.

World Markets=Lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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29 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 10

There has been a lot of talk about Argentina's corn crop. In fact, the USDA dropped its estimate in yesterday's report to 22.0 million metric tons vs. its January estimate of 26.0 mmt. Also, yesterday, the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange lowered its Argentina corn crop estimate to 21.3 mmt, compared with an earlier estimate this year of 30.0 mmt. Now, agronomic sources, in Argentina, tell Agriculture.com, they estimate the 2011-12 corn crop at 18.0 mmt vs. its original estimate of 28.0 mmt. Beause of the drought, Argentina's corn harvesting will happen 10 days ahead of schedule (Mid-February), the source tells us. And, the corn that is down has no hope of recovering. For soybeans, the crop
forecast has been lowered to 40.0 mmt vs. 50 mmt.  

 

Below is a cornfield outside of Buenos Aires.

Argentina corn

 

Short and dry looking Argentina corn.

Short Argentina corn

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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 10

Mike,

 

Is your guess that all that information is priced into our market at these price levels? I feel that we should go higher due to the uncertainty of the weather (From Drought to Frost in South America and how it will affect yields), our uncertainty of moisture in the midwest and the tight supply that everyone is discussing.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 10

I don't think an 18.0 mmt Argentine corn crop estimate is built-in. Maybe a 20.0 mmt is but a small crop gets smaller, as you know. That 18 may not be low enough, once the yields come out of the fields, we'll see. 

 

Mike

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Canuck_2
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 10

Where and when has frost impacted the crop there this year.

I can only find temperatures as low as 9, quite a way from frost, at least it would be around here. Even a light frost would need to be down around 2 wouldn't it?

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 10

quote from DTN.........."Brazil's Agriculture Ministry estimated the 2011-12 soybean crop would come in below 70 million metric tons early Thursday, marking the first time any local forecaster has done so."

 

Mike, if any of the pictures we have seen from multiple posters and other websites are true, then this years Argentina corn crop has to be close to 20% less than last..........which would put it right at 18MMT.........

 

As for soya, I have to believe they were hurt too, sounds like Brazil maybe more than thought............Argentina is all over the board, I heard one estimate clear down to 40MMT...........

 

World numbers are falling and the cuts are not done coming...........likely means that demand will have to keep coming to the US, how much is yet to be seen..........

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 10

From what I'm gathering, it looks like if Mato Grosso's soybean crop can't make up for the losses in Parana, RGDS, and other southern states, then Brazil's numbers will keep falling. There's no doubt Argentina's corn, soy numbers will keep falling. In fact, I'm trying to track down a lead about a possible early frost for Argentina. If it's a hard freeze, you don't need me to tell you what that means. Meanwhile, I'm not sure the trade believes the USDA's U.S. export numbers, instead thinks those numbers should be higher. There's talk China is going to be in the soybean market very very soon. And the U.S. farmer hasn't even greased the planter zerks. I'm looking for a bear, using honey, even, and I can't find one.

 

Mike 

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vrbuck
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 10

There is no doubt there is damage down south, but many of the photos are cherry picked. 

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 10

vrbuck,

 

Believe me when I tell you, the photos I posted this morning were not cherry-picked. Though I can't tell you the source of this agronomic specialist, there is no photo-shopping on these pictures. I agree that you have to wonder sometimes where some photos come from. But, seriously, a co-worker and I gathered this Argentina information and photo from a respected source.

 

And in full disclosure, I do not have any futures positions. I'm not long or short anything.

 

Mike

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

cherry picked?????

selling $8 corn last summer kind of felt like cherry picking too..........but it happened..........

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