Floor Talk February 15

[Tony_Dreibus]

At 3:50pm:

Here's an update on the higher amounts of ships in Brazil's ports. So, Anec (National Association of Exporters), reports that 113 ships are waiting in the ports. The press officer said that they don’t have the number of ships in line on the same day last year to compare the data. He just said that Reuters data were compiled by Williams agency independently. The port of Paranaguá, in southern Brazil, has the longest line.

Mike

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At 1:35pm:

Reuters news service is reporting Monday that twice the number of ships to load out corn and soybeans vs. a year ago are lined up at Brazilian ports. Our folks at SFAGRO.Com.BR are checking sources to find out more about this. Harvest is 16% complete, up from 14% at this time a year ago. That's a lot of harvest left and a lot of ships to dock yet.

Mike

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At 1:20pm:

China's January soybean imports fell nearly 18% to 5.6 million tons, vs. a year ago, and down 38% from December's total of 9.12 million tons, according to its General Administration of Customs agency.

Plus, China's February soybean imports coud drop to near 4.0 million tons, news reports indicate.

Mike

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Good morning. 

It's going to be a quiet day as the Chicago Board of Trade is shut for Presidents Day -- at least until 7 p.m. when overnight trading ahead of Tuesday's session begins. 

At 6:15 am:

Brent Crude Oil = 1.1% higher

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 1.9% higher.

Dollar = up 0.5%.

Wall Street = Stock markets closed. 
World Markets = Global stocks cautiously higher as investors bet on additional European stimulus. 

[marketeye]

The topic of commodities prices always seems to bubble to the top of farm meetings, even if it's not the focus.

To figure 2016 corn and soybean margin estimates, Steven Johnson, Iowa State University Extension specialist is using a national average cash price estimate of $3.60/bu corn and $8.50/bu soybeans. That compares to $3.60 and $8.80 averages last year, for corn and soybean respectively.

Now get this, other analysts see soybean prices, this fall off of the combine at $7.50 and for corn $2.90 at harvest.

So, what can a farmer afford to pay for rent? If he/she is raising corn that figure is $213/ per acre. If that farmer is growing soybeans, that figure is $178 per acre.

I thought that these were interesting (yes, depressing too) figures.

Are these estimates reflective of what is going on in your neighborhood?

Mike

[BA Deere]

I can stay breathing with Steve Johnson`s estimates.  But the "other analyst`s" numbers, I`ll need a defibrillator.  I think input suppliers better take note, they might nail us this year a little bit, but $250 seed corn doesn`t compute with $2.90 corn..that`d be 37 bushel of corn to pay for the seed!   And there`s plenty more blame to go around for the other inputs.

[elcheapo]

Now....use those numbers on dryland acres in the
Midwest.

And every stupid company wants $55 a bag or
More for soybean seed.

Not everyone has 60 bu bean ground.

But tell the coop employees that....THEY get mad
And rude if you tell them that and they need
To get cheaper or find a cheaper source....then
They counter "we sell only quality products"
I counter, well if it doesn't rain your quality
Beans don't produce any more...and if it
Does rain that fancy seed must do 3 to 4 bu
More just TO BREAK EVEN with the other seed.

[roarintiger1]

The only good news that I could find in this entire thread is the fact that the markets were closed today and the prices did not go lower.

[WCMO]

I'm assuming those estimates are based on Iowa yields . . . sigh.

[marketeye]

Brazil's Ship Count Update: So, our counterparts at Successful Farming-Brasil are offering more details of the ships backing up at Brazil's ports. On Monday, Reuters news service reported there were double the amount of ships lined up vs. this same time last year.

Today, sfagro.com.br editors are reporting new information from their sources at the Port of Paranagua.

"Rain is not being a problem now. What the press officer said is that shipment is in a normal course in comparison with February of last year. The volume of grains exported last year was a record and Paranaguá has 5.8 millions of metric tons of grains programmed to be shipped next three months," according to Port of Paranagua officials.

Separately, there's news brewing in northern Brazil. Luis Vieira, Agriculture.com contributor reports that export taxes could squeeze the northern Brazil farmers. "After Argentina has cut taxes, the Brazilian state of Goiás will tax exports of corn and soybeans. The decision will also be valid for products derived from both grains. According to local farm associations, the measure will make the business not feasible because tradings will have more costs and they probably would buy just from other states. "We have highways in terrible state for the logistics, unsafe properties and poor electric infrastructure. All of this takes our competitiveness, reducing productivity," said Bartolomeu Pereira, vice-president of the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of Goiás."

Stay tuned for more.

Mike

[sw363535]

A line of ships can mean many different things..... 🙂

Export taxes on the producers products.... Seems to be a theme in South America...

Wonder why we haven't had a presidential declaration on that idea here in the US....?