Floor Talk, February 18, 2020
At the close:
At the close, the March corn futures finished 5 1/4¢ higher at $3.83. May corn futures closed 5 1/2¢ higher at $3.87 1/2.
March soybean futures closed 1 1/2¢ lower at $8.92 3/4. May soybean futures ended 1¢ lower at $9.02 1/2.
March wheat futures closed 23 1/2¢ higher at $5.66 3/4.
March soymeal futures closed $1.10 per short ton higher at $292.20. March soy oil futures settled $0.09 cents lower at 30.48¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.11 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 159 points lower.
WO! What a wheat day!
At midsession, the March corn futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $3.81 1/4. May corn futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $3.85 1/2.
March soybean futures are unchanged at $8.93 3/4. May soybean futures are 1/2¢ higher at $9.03 1/2.
March wheat futures are 15 3/4¢ higher at $5.58 3/4.
March soymeal futures are $1.00 per short ton higher at $292.10. March soy oil futures are $0.02 cents higher at 30.59¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.56 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 270 points lower.
The USDA’s Weekly Export Inspection report shows strong demand.
Corn inspections, last week, came in at 795,000 tonnes vs. an expected range of 600,000-800,000 tonnes.
For soybeans, 992,000 tonnes were inspected vs. the trade’s exceptions of 700,000-1.25 million tonnes.
U.S. wheat inspections totaled 502,000 tonnes vs. the expectations of 400,000-600,000 tonnes.
In early trading, the March corn futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.80 1/4. May corn futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $3.84.
March soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $8.91. May soybean futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $9.01 1/2.
March wheat futures are 12 3/4¢ higher at $5.55 3/4.
March soymeal futures are $0.40 per short ton lower at $290.70. March soy oil futures are $0.04 cents higher at 30.61¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.10 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 109 points lower.
Louise Gartner, Spectrum Commodities, says that the wheat market is moving on China news.
“It seems to be the news that China is offering tariff free licenses to purchase 696 different U.S. goods, starting today. There seems to be a general sentiment that China will buy a lot of wheat in an effort to show good faith with their WTO agreement (to buy 9 million metric tons/year, which seems improbable that it would be that much). That said, ASF and the coronavirus are hitting them hard and they need food.
She added, "Also, Australia lowered its production estimate again by 600,000 metric tons, but I don’t think that would move the market this much,” Gartner says.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be watching the progress of the soybean market.
“Keep an eye on the $9.00 price level in the nearby soybean futures contract. A close above $9.00 will open the door for a test of $9.20. The ability of the soybean market to rally last week--even with all of the negative fundamental news--is a positive indicator for soybean prices,” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.
Re: Nov 20 beans are ....
Nov 20 beans are pretty steady at $9.20. I would expect them to drop until the end of the price discovery period. Other than that, unless and until the Chinese buy US beans, there is plenty of beans for the domestic market.
The question to ask is, "What would the price be if we had sold that extra 500 million bushel to China last fall and didn't have that 500 million bushel carryout"?
Re: Nov 20 beans are ....
Since we’re throwing hypothetical questions out, what would the price be if this trade debacle never happened? That means continued sales for last two plus years. Well over 10$.