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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk February 18, 2021

At the close:

 

At the close, the March corn futures settled 2 3/4¢ lower at $5.50 1/4. May corn futures closed 1 3/4¢ lower at $5.49. New crop December corn futures finished 3/4¢ lower at $4.59 1/4.

March soybean futures closed 8 3/4¢ lower at $13.75. May soybean futures finished 8 1/4¢ lower at $13.76 3/4. New crop November futures settled 2 1/2¢ lower at $11.86 1/2.

May wheat futures settled 17 3/4¢ higher at $6.65 3/4.


May soymeal futures closed $6.20 short term lower at $425.00.


May soy oil futures finished 0.11 higher at 46.25¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.69 per barrel lower (-1.13%) at $60.45. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 96 points lower (-0.31%) at 31,516 points.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the March corn futures are 4¢ lower at $5.49. May corn futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $5.47. New crop December corn futures are 2¢ lower at $4.58.

March soybean futures are 12 1/4¢ lower at $13.71 3/4. May soybean futures are 12¢ lower at $13.72 3/4. New crop November futures are 4¢ lower at $11.85 1/2.

May wheat futures are 14 3/4¢ higher at $6.62 3/4.


May soymeal futures are $5.90 short term lower at $425.30.


May soy oil futures are 0.13 lower at 46.01¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.11 per barrel lower (-0.18%) at $61.03. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 265 points lower (-0.84%) at 31,347 points.

 

Mike

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At 9am:

 

Ag markets trade mostly lower Thursday.

 

Mike

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At 8:15am:

U.S. 2021 acreage to jump 5%, USDA says

At its Ag Outlook Forum, the USDA has estimated the 2021 U.S. Acreage.

 

Corn= 92.0 million

Soybeans= 90.0 million.

 

What say you? Too high, too low, or just right?

 

Bower Trading Inc. sent this message out to customers in a daily note.

 

Initial 2021/22 acreage ideas by USDA indicate expectations for total acreage among corn, wheat and soybeans to rise to 227.0 million acres from last year’s 218.3 million and compares to the sum of average wire service survey estimates of 228.0 million acres. With prices rising sharply and U.S. balance sheets tightening considerably, especially soybeans and corn, expectations are for a return of total planted acreage towards decade-high levels barring major weather-related planting issues this spring.

 

Planting has been considerably challenged in recent years with 10.2 million acres in Prevented Planting claims last year and 19.6 million acres in the disastrous 2019 campaign. For comparison, in the 2015-2018 crop years, combined corn, soybean and wheat area ranged from 225.7-227.6 million acres, and 228.4-230.7 million acres from 2012-2014.

 

CORN - Initial USDA corn acreage ideas were put at 92.0 million acres vs 90.819 million last year and compares to the 90.0 million acres USDA showed in their previously-released baseline projections. A wire service survey ahead of today’s numbers put the average expectation at 92.9 million acres (91.5-96.0 million range of ideas).

 

BEAN - USDA looks for soybean acreage at 90.0 mil acres vs 83.084 mil last year and compares to the 89.0 mil they penciled in their baseline projections. Average market expectations were put at 89.8 million acres (87.0-92.0 million range).

 

WHEAT - All wheat planted area is seen at 45.0 mil acres by USDA vs 44.349 mil last year and the baseline balance sheet putting this year’s acreage at 46.0 million, while average market expectations were 45.3 million (42.0-47.0 million range). Based on the USDA’s January Winter Wheat Seedings report estimate of 31.991 million acres, USDA’s total spring wheat (other spring + durum) acreage assumption would be 13.009 million acres vs last year’s 13.934 million.

Mike 

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14 Replies
rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Man proposes, Nature disposes.

Actually, I'm a little surprised at only 92 M corn, farmers like to plant corn, it must be the price of fertilizer scaring them off.  90 M of soybeans, certainly do-able.

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cborman11
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 18, 2021

Seth Meyer is a complete moron.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 18, 2021

cborman11,

 

Oh, so you know Seth Meyer real well do you? You know him so well that you can definitively call him out with that description? If you don't, please refrain from using this discussion group to start a hate discussion.

 

And for the record, I don't know Seth very well either. 

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

 

cborman11
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 18, 2021

I'm entitled to my opinion you know the whole freedom of speech thing.

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 18, 2021

cborman11,

 

Yes, you are. I'm just kindly asking that you use more supporting factors to explain your scathing opinion.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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cborman11
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 18, 2021

Will do.

Wind
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 18, 2021

It sure looks like the wheat market is on fire.  Question, can you plant Spring wheat this Spring where you normally plant Winter wheat the Fall before?  I'm sure the yield would be down a little.  Less input than corn.  Just wondering,  this might take some acres from corn to Spring wheat, like in Kansas?  Remember I'm an Iowanian and still trying to learn about wheat.

Last year I did see a 200A field in second year beans near me.  That is unusual.  Might see more of that with a double application of fungicide?  Yes, farmers like to plant corn, but they do sharpen their  pencil.  Maybe more milo than corn too?

 

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 18, 2021

I am actually surprised the numbers aren't higher. These are not market breaker numbers following pipeline or less carryover supplies.

The coming record average yield predictions will do that. 

Still three white capped mountains in Creston Iowa. One beans two corn.

The bean one is the small one and it has two unit train loads in it.

I've  still got corn, beans, and rye UNsold in the bins here too.

Still 7 months till early harvest here. Needs to be some still around at this point. 

 

Edit to add.

95% of the increased acres are fringe less than the best producing acres. Not possible statically speaking to have record trendline increasing yields on decreasing quality land.

 

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clayton58
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 18, 2021

Wind. Yes in theory a person could maybe plant spring wheat in winter wheat country.  Not gonna happen tho because. 1 It would mature/ripen later in summer. Too much heat at grain filling therefore lower yields and quality. 2. Marketing would be a challenge. Cannot mix with winter wheat. Mixed classes means feed grade. Usually a discount. 3. Milo. Spot milo is the higher price than corn or wheat here. New crop is less but still higher than corn. With potential yields 2-3 times that of wheat milo will be crop of choice. Maybe even on some corn acres in the high plains