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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk February 19

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures settled 6 cents higher at $3.89 per bushel.
March soybean futures finished 11 1/2 cents higher at $10.07 1/4.

March wheat futures closed unchanged to $5.278 3/4. The March soybean meal futures settled $8.90 per short ton higher at $347.50. May soyoil futures finish $0.18 lower at $31.83.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.57 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 41 points lower.

 

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According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 964,000 barrels per day (b/d)—or 40.49 million gallons daily. That is up 3,000 b/d from the week before. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 963,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 14.76 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 21.1 million barrels. That is a 0.2% decrease from last week.

Imports of ethanol were zero b/d, unchanged for the last seven weeks.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 6 1/2 cents higher at $3.90 1/4 per bushel. New crop Dec. is 5 1/2 cents higher at $4.20.
March soybean futures are trading 16 cents higher at $10.11. Nov. futures are 13 cents higher at $9.89.

March wheat futures are trading 6 cents higher to $5.33. The March soybean meal futures are trading $9.50 per short ton higher at $341.00. May soyoil futures are trading $0.16 lower at $32.04.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.94 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 53 points lower.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says the rally is backed by the USDA Outlook Conference acreage estimates.
“Apparently, the market found out that low prices means less planted area and therefore less production and wants to rally the back on that.  Basis levels have been firming, at least in beans, so some of the crushers must be getting short, too,” Scoville says.
But, beans are being sold on this rally. So, we might not go much higher,” he says. I got sell orders from U.S. farmers. I’m not seeing much showing yet from South America and they are behind the normal pace in sales, so something down there will have to give soon.”
.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures are trading 3/4 of a cent lower at $3.83 per bushel. New crop Dec. is 3/4 of a cent lower at $4.13.
March soybean futures are trading 2 1/4 cents higher at $9.98. Nov. futures are 3/4 of a cent higher at $9.77.

March wheat futures are trading 3/4 of a cent lower to $5.27. The March soybean meal futures are trading $4.20 per short ton higher at $342.80. March soyoil futures are trading $0.47 lower at $31.54.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.50 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 90 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 7:00am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $1.41 lower per barrel at $60.71.
Dollar =Higher. 
Wall Street = Seen lower, as Greece's loan extension is denied. Plus, a falling oil market weighs on the stock market. 

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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4 Replies
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 19

WASHINGTON - U.S. farmers will plant slightly less land to soybeans this year than the record acreage of 2014 and will plant more corn than originally projected, said the Agriculture Department at its Outlook Forum
   
USDA chief economist Robert Johansson said, "Soybean area is expected to fall modestly from its record area in 2014 to 83.5 million acres, with movement out of soybeans tempered by its lower operating costs and forward marketing opportunities in the past few months."
 
Corn plantings are projected at 89.0 million acres this spring, down 1.6 million acres from 2014 and 8.2 million acres below its recent peak in 2012. Soy plantings totaled 83.7 million acres last year.

Wheat plantings, at 55.5 million acres, are projected to be 1.3 million acres below the 2014 figure.

Johansson's figures, based on current conditions, were revisions from USDA's projections released in December. Those called for 88 million acres of corn, 84 million acres of soybeans and 56 million acres of wheat.

"Row crop prices have declined significantly from record highs in recent years but remain well above levels seen in the early 2000s," said Johansson in a speech that opened the two-day conference.

USDA said season-average prices for the three major field crops will be slightly higher than expected in December. USDA now projects farm-gate prices of $3.50 a bushel for corn, $9 a bushel for soybeans and $5.10 a bushel for wheat. The corn and wheat prices are 10 cents higher than USDA''s initial projections and soybeans were 50 cents higher.

While Johansson updated USDA's projections for plantings, he did not provide projections for yields or crop size under the revisions. "In tomorrow's commodity outlook sessions, our analysts will go through USDA' projected balance sheets for the 2015/16 marketing year in detail," he said.

Going into the conference, USDA projected near-record corn and soybean crops and an average-sized wheat crop.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 19

So another projected near-record yield for corn and beans.  What did they say about this season's weather?  The un-spoken consensus  is the it is hard to "beat back" these "new-genetics" with bad weather.  My "gut feeling" and only that, tells me that "This is the year." where have we heard that before?

-4* this morning.  Having a rather cold Feb. here in IA. so far. 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 19

Wind,

 

Here's more from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum Thursday.

Yes, records indeed. We can do projected crops using USDA's new planting figures for corn, soy and wheat. Based on USDA's projected abandonment rate and trend line yields, it's 13.6 bln bu, corn, 3.8 bln soy and 2.15 bln wheat.

Also, USDA trimmed the ag export figure to $141.5 bln, down by $2 bln from the December forecast and way down from the record $152.5 bln of fiscal 2014.

 

Mike

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 19

What type of information does the USDA research to come up with their acre and price projections?

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