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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk February 20 (President's Day)

The CME Group farm futures markets are closed today, due to Washington's birthday and the President's Holiday.

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At 2:45pm:

One analyst noted Monday that, "China's corn market is running around $9.60 per bushel. For that fact, the Chinese may be eyeing new-crop purchases of U.S. corn soon, because it pays them to import cheaper corn. China needs to re-stock reserves. The higher China corn will eventually be a factor for the U.S. corn market," he says.

 

Mike

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At 11:45am:

Keep in mind that even though the U.S. grain futures market is closed, the grain markets in Europe are open. Plus, the S& P 500 are trading today. As a result, U.S. grain traders are keeping one eye on these markets, in an attempt to get a feel for how tonight's U.S. overnight farm market will trade.

 

Scott Shellady, ICAP Energy and corn pit trader:
"China's easing and Iran's oil feud should spell a higher trade. Short term technicals are also bullish. This Iranian deal should scare the traders that are short and could spark them to buy this corn market. The oil thing was gonna happen anyway. The real scare to me is Israel," he says.

 

Mike

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At 7am:

Still, there is plenty to talk about. Here are a few news & noise items:

--China has announced an easing of its bank's reserve requirements.

--The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against the Euro.

--A 2nd Greek bailout is underway. The talk is that this bailout will be agreed upon amongst Euro leaders.

--One floor trader sees the corn market breaking out to the upside this weeek.

--Egypt bought 180,000 mt of U.S. wheat, over the weekend.

--Saudia Arabia bought 330,000 mt of hard wheat from U.S., Canada, Aust., and the EU Sunday.

--Southern Brazil received little rain over the weekend, and little is expected for the next few days. That area's soybean crop is getting hurt during the current pod-filling stage.

 

Mike

 

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10 Replies
docharing
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 20 (President's Day)

Good morning Mike,

Sounds like all good news, too bad the markets are closed. Maybe all bad news tomorrow? What about Iran cutting oil off to Britain and France? Oil is up today on the world market, if oil is up then ethanol is up? then corn is up? Can oil price still move corn prices? What's the scoop from your corner of the  world?

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4wd
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 20 (President's Day)

Mike, 

The talk is $5.00/gal gasoline by spring. What will that mean for ethanol prices?

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 20 (President's Day)

docharing,

 

I just spoke to a commodities analyst about the oil feud. He says this Iranian deal could spark a rally for ethanol prices that could bleed over into the corn market.

 

See full story.

 

Mike

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 20 (President's Day)

Looking Ahead:

 

One analyst says, "I see the USD is down hard and the crude is up hard, not only on that stuff, but it looks like a Greek deal is getting done and China moved to ease its monetary policy too, so I am expecting an up night tonight."

 

Mike

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 20 (President's Day)

Does anyone see a limit up move in the grains?   I think that would be the breakout that farmers are looking for to not only open the bin doors, but to clean them out as well.

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rightone
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 20 (President's Day)

The spring break thru fall tourism is a fair sized deal for the Western States.

It's the 1st thru 3rd largest total econ segment, depending on the State.

 

AND every time there's the high gas deal, there's a 5 to 20% drop in tourist visits.

 

Upside ( if there is 1 ) is those generally stay home and vacation closer to home thus grill alot more hamburgers, pork chops, chickie etc...

 

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rightone
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 20 (President's Day)

It's also quite possible that oil news is basically OLD supposed news.

 

Folks pretty sick of it. MO.

 

Get another 5 to 10% drop in miles driven in the usa and how bullish is that for, well the oilies?

 

ALOT of corn in storage and most the news is supposedly bullish, yet the market fails time after time to really run.

 

IS it possible to have say $110 120 crude, w dropping gas usage in the usa?

 

New crop corn in the afore may not be worth say $5.50 in the e convert deal

 

But to cheapen gas ( and spin  it that the farmers are supposedly saving america )  there may be plenty of excuses to convert new crop at $4 to 5. 

 

Just never know.

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giolucas
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 20 (President's Day)

Whew!!! Limit up my  tail.   

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 20 (President's Day)

We are all entitled to our dreams... I like his.

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