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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk February 20

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $3.85 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading 6 1/4 cents lower at $10.01.

March wheat futures are trading 9 3/4 cents lower to $5.18.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.02 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points higher.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $3.87 per bushel. New crop Dec. is 2 cents lower at $4.17.
March soybean futures are trading 4 cents lower at $10.03. Nov. futures are 4 cents lower at $9.81.

March wheat futures are trading 3/4 of a cent lower to $5.27.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.81 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 7:45am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Reported Friday:

 

Corn= 1.075 million metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 725,000 metric tons,

Soybeans=  621,500 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 425,000 metric tons.

Wheat= 304,600 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 400,000 metric tons,

 

What is on your mind, this morning, regarding these positive looking sales.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.56 higher.
Dollar =Higher. 
Wall Street = Seen lower, as Greece meets with Eurozone. 

World Markets = Europe stocks were mostly higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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3 Replies
luisvieira
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 20

This is today's breaking news that I just posted on agrosouth-news.com:

 

A strike to protest against hikes in fuel taxes started this week in Mato Grosso. Truckers blocked BR-163 and BR-364, two major highways that are used to transport soybeans, since Tuesday. The protest spread at least to four other states: Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Goiás; all significant grains producers.

 

Currently, Mato Grosso is at the peak of the soybean harvest. The state governor, Pedro Taques, invited transportation companies for a meeting in which he may offer a state relief on diesel taxes and avoid the blockade of roads.

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ECIN
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 20

Well Mike - Toughts are pretty good numbers and they have been for the most part , But - to me - all the trade it looking at is world numbers - plus - we had a record crop , they know that there millions locked away for safe keepings here - a lot of full bins here in my parts - I just wonder what will or would happen IF corn would rally to 4 or 4 and a quarter ? I would think with that flood basis would be -.90 like it was in the Dakota's . Just afraid were all hosed

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Re: Floor Talk February 20

Message to Mike McGinnis from Mike North:

"The market is reconciling multiple things.  First, soybeans have had a very nice move higher this week.  Some profit taking is taking place.  However, strong exports for beans are helping to offset some of the weight that came in the USDA's projections coming out of the Ag Outlook Forum. Soybean production was estimated at 3.8 billion on a trend line yield of 46.0 bpa. Soybean demand was estimated at 3.75 billion, up 75 million from current marketing year. However, with acreage holding steady, US soybean ending stocks are estimated at 430 million vs. 385 million for current marketing year.  That, as we had expected, doesn't do the market any favors now that larger numbers are in print.  Wheat is just downright negative this morning with lower than expected exports and an estimated hike in its ending stocks number to 763 million bushels. Corn is in a little better situation fundamentally this morning, but still struggling to shrug off the weight of soybean and wheat markets. Corn acres were projected yesterday at 89.0 million planted and 81.5 million harvested. Corn yield was estimated to be 166.8 bpa, down slightly from the baseline trend yield of 167.2 bpa. This brings corn production to 13.6 billion.  Demand registered at 13.76 billion with ending stocks of 1.687 billion. Given this is a Friday, the market will have have to wait until Monday to see if traders are willing to pick up more of the fundamental story."

Mike North
President
Commodity Risk Management Group

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