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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk February 21

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures finished 1/4¢ higher at $3.65 3/4. May futures closed 1/4¢ higher at $3.74. March soybean futures finished 7 3/4¢ higher at $10.34 1/4.  May soybean futures finished 8¢ higher at $10.45 1/2. March wheat futures closed 3¢ lower at $4.59 1/2. May soy meal futures settled $1.70 per short ton higher at $381.00. January soy oil futures finished 0.24 higher at 32.28¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.08 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 270 points higher.

 

Alan Brugler, President Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says that the soybean rally is weather-driven.
“The bean rally is meal driven, with both smaller Argentine soy production and the truckers strike the interrupted crush and exports for a week or so,” Brugler says. 
He adds, “Meal will top out when the U.S. and Brazil have ramped up enough production/exports to fill in the void from Argentina.”  Brugler says that the CME Group’s crush margins have been phenomenal. 
“We also have to remember that spec funds were still short beans two weeks ago. They are not anywhere near a max long yet. As long as the story is good, they can add to their long positions,” Brugler says.
He adds, “The markets are getting a lift from meal. Current meal/corn ratio is about 2.75:1.  The long term average is 2.1, so meal is on the expensive side although no where near record.”

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

 

At mid-session, the March corn futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.66. May futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.74. March soybean futures are 6 1/2¢ higher at $10.33.  May soybean futures are 6 1/2¢ higher at $10.44. March wheat futures are 1/4¢ lower at $4.62. May soy meal futures are $1.20 per short ton higher at $380.50. January soy oil futures are 0.30 higher at 32.34¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.22 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 91 points higher.

 

Mike

 

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At the open:

In early trading, the March corn futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $3.67. May futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $3.75. March soybean futures are 8¢ higher at $10.34.  May soybean futures are 8¢ higher at $10.45. March wheat futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $4.64. May soy meal futures are $3.00 per short ton higher at $382.30. January soy oil futures are 0.06 lower at 31.98¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.31 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 84 points higher.

 

Mike

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Soybeans and grains were mixed overnight -- mostly little changed -- as investors weigh several factors including the dry weather in Argentina and the southern Plains against weak demand and large global supplies. The buying on the droughts in South American and the US southern Plains dried up overnight. Corn was the lone riser, up about a penny, while soybeans lost less than 1 cent and wheat was down 1-3 cents. Export inspections last week were higher for corn, which may explain the increase, while lower for soybeans and wheat. Inspections for all three commodities are down year-over-year, however. In weather news, flood warnings abound in the upper Midwest. Southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, northern Indiana and almost all of Michigan are under flood warnings due to several inches of rain falling on frozen ground, leading to excessive runoff. Some rivers are already over flood stage while others are near. See all the details in today's 3 Big Things at https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-february-21.

 

Brent Crude Oil = down 0.2%.

West Texas Intermediate = down 0.6%.

Dollar = up 0.3%

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks lower overnight.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 21

"weak demand and large global supplies."

 

Wrong on both statements.

 

45 day cushion is NOT a large supply

Maybe need to take a drive to any processor and dodge all the semis going and coming .

E plants, feed mills, sweetener plants, train loaders, and soy crushers,, 

 

Iowa the land of hopper bottom semis.

 

If the Dakota's hadn't changed over to corn and beans, things would look different.

 

Is your glass ever even half full?