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Veteran Contributor
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Registered: ‎09-09-2014
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Floor Talk February 22

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.66. May futures finished 3/4¢ higher at $3.74. March soybean futures ended 2 1/4¢ lower at $10.32.  May soybean futures finished 2 1/4¢ lower at $10.43. May wheat futures settled 4 3/4¢ higher at $4.64 1/4. May soy meal futures ended $1.40 per short ton lower at $379.60. January soy oil futures close 0.03 lower at 32.25¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.04 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 293 points higher.

 

Mike North, Commodity Research Management Group analyst, says that the market is trying to quantify the offset of dry Argentinian weather and increased acreage out looks for soybeans.
“It appears that the larger crop in the United States will likely be a greater offset than any losses in Argentina,” North says. “Furthermore, technical resistance lives just over head of the current market with all the highs in new crop being revisited,” North says.
Corn has a similar issue as it has recently bumped up against a long term overhead trend line extending back to 2014, North says.
“Dry weather in the Southern Plains has given lift to the wheat market, but done little to inspire row crops,” North says.

 

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.66. May futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.74. March soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $10.35.  May soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $10.46. March wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $4.63. May soy meal futures are $0.80 per short ton lower at $380.20. January soy oil futures are 0.05 lower at 32.23¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.94 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 344 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 9:10:

In early trading, the March corn futures are 1/4¢ higher at $3.66. May futures are 1/4¢ higher at $3.74. March soybean futures are 1/2¢ lower at $10.33.  May soybean futures are 1/2¢ lower at $10.45. March wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $4.61. May soy meal futures are $2.40 per short ton lower at $378.60. January soy oil futures are 0.04 lower at 32.24¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.23 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 171 points higher.

 

Mike

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Soybeans and grains were little changed overnight as investors seek more bullish news to keep pushing soybean prices higher. Fundamentally, nothing has changed -- it's still dry in Argentina, but without new reports of further damage, the buying dried up overnight. Beans were down about 2 cents while corn and wheat were almost unchanged. In other news, the USDA released a report showing farm returns didn't justify the increase in land values, which more than doubled, from 2000-2016. The report did say the increase in land prices, however, resulted in fewer financially stressed farms, so that's some good news. In weather news, there's a winter weather advisory stretching from central Texas to the Canadian border, encompassing parts of 10 states. Snow and ice are expected to continue, the National Weather Service said. Check out the details in today's 3 Big Things at https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-february-22.

 

Brent Crude Oil = down 0.3%.

West Texas Intermediate = down 0.4%.

Dollar = up 0.1%

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks mixed overnight.

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,667
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

Without rainfall, the crops in Argentina will continue to deteriorate more every day.  If the traders need bullish news to push the markets higher,  there it is.  This is not rocket science.   However, we may need some rocket science to get that bull that is strapped to the rocket off of the launching pad.    Smiley Wink

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Senior Contributor
Posts: 407
Registered: ‎05-16-2010

Re: Floor Talk February 22

The report did say the increase in land prices, however, resulted in fewer financially stressed farms, so  that's some good(?) news.  Net worth is still only good for two things and they will both get you in trouble.

Veteran Contributor
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

I agree Roaring -- as long as Argentina continues to deteriorate we should see prices underpinned. The price action this morning may just be investors waiting to see what the USDA says tomorrow when it releases its baseline projections at the Outlook Forum in DC. I went to that many many times over the years and remember it a) being snowy, b) the food at the mall attached to the hotel being really good, and c) a lot of the numbers really moving markets. So it's likely a lot of specs and hedgers are trying to stay as neutral as possible before the figures because nobody wants to be on the wrong side of the trade. 

Veteran Advisor
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

Any data on whether or not initial USDA baseline projections have ever been bullish for current prices?

Honored Advisor
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Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

Sad state of affairs when prices seem to depend on people with absolutely no dog in the hunt. Not a producer or end user. Not even a true middle man.

 

I think the Frengies from star trek have taken over.

 

Yep sad state of affairs.

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,667
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk February 22

Hey Mike North......."an increased acreage outlook for soybeans"   "It appears that the larger crop in the United States will likely be a greater offset than any losses in Argentina."

 

It looked to me that the acreage was the same as last year.......AT BEST my friend.

 

Do you actually believe the stuff you put out?

 

It's clear that you've been watching way too much CNN.