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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, February 25, 2019

At the close, the March corn futures finished 4 3/4¢ lower at $3.70 1/2. May futures closed 4 1/2¢ lower at $3.80.

March soybean futures ended 1 1/2¢ higher at $9.11 3/4. May soybean futures closed 1 1/4¢ higher at $9.25.

May wheat futures ended 19¢ lower at $4.72 3/4.

May soymeal futures closed unchanged at $309.40.

May soy oil futures finished 0.17 lower at 30.68¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.81 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 112 points higher.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

 

At midsession, the March corn futures 4 1/4¢ lower at $3.71. May futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $3.80 3/4.

March soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $9.11 1/4. May soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $9.24.

May wheat futures are 16 3/4¢ lower at $4.75.

May soymeal futures are 0.20¢ per short ton higher at $309.60.

May soy oil futures are 0.15 lower at 30.70¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.04 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 157 points higher.

 

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the markets’ overnight gains have dwindled into mid session.

 

“Beans have managed to keep in's head into positive territory - so far today. Good news by way of trade talks with China gave the market an initial lift, pushing corn and beans to the top end of the range, only to give it back now,” O’Connell says.

 

On Thursday, China said that it could possible, maybe, potentially commit to purchasing 30 billion in U.S. ag products, O’Connell says.

 

“Of course, this is everything from corn and beans to fruit and wine. On Friday late afternoon, the Chinese committed to purchasing 10mmt of U.S. soybeans with no specific delivery time frame defined. If they hold to typical buying patterns these will likely be new crop bushels delivered this fall,” O’Connell says.

 

On Sunday evening, President Trump announced that the U.S. would not be imposing the next round of tariffs that were due to go in effect on March 1, citing positive trade talks.

 

“The reality of burdensome supplies of soybeans seems to take center stage each time the market rises back to the top end of the range. With no other news to trade, it's hard to see the market moving outside of this current range,” O’Connell says.

 

Jack Scoville, PriceGroup senior market analyst, says that the soybean market is enjoying the purchase of more as a good will gesture by the Chinese.

 

“But, none of these markets are really all that impressive in response to the tariff being pushed back. People complain that there is no time line put on any of this, and we also know that the hardest issues, intellectual property protections and Chinese economic reforms, are still to be negotiated,” Scoville says.

 

He adds, “So not the biggest reaction in the world, as this could all fall apart. I personally think Trump needs a deal as much as the Chinese, so some kind of deal will emerge.
Wheat is incredible, with no real reason to sell it as the exports were strong today and the data on Friday was not as bad as it could have been, he says.

 

“Tough day, the wheat in the world is not that good, dollar down a touch and wheat in the toilet. Corn and beans should be better given the news, although the 4exports were not all that strong, but even so given the trade deal news we should be better off than we are,” Scoville says.

 

 

Mike

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At 10:55am:

 

USDA Export Inspection Monday showed 1.307 mmt of soybeans inspected last week. Also, corn inspections totaled 751,278 mt.

 

Also, my phone just pinged a message from a broker noting that the May 2019 soybean price target of $9.34 was hit today. He suggests increasing cash soybean sales by 10% to get to 70% sold now.

 

What say you?

 

 

Mike

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At 10:25am:

 

If you missed it, the USDA announced fresh corn sales, today.

 

On Monday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 279,400 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico. Of the total, 88,500 metric tons is for delivery during the 2018/2019 marketing year and 190,900 metric tons is for delivery during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

 

 

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At 10am:

 

Folks,

 

I'm back and ready to push up these markets for you. It shouldn't be long before I can get a 4 in front of the corn market and a 10 in front of the soybean market. I have some ideas that I've been thinking of while I recovered from back surgery. Let's see if they work. Smiley Happy

 

There's plenty of work to do, it looks like, this morning.

 

At 10am, the March corn futures 1¢ lower at $3.74 1/4. May futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.84.

March soybean futures are 6 3/4¢ higher at $9.17. May soybean futures are 6 1/2¢ higher at $9.30.

May wheat futures are 12 1/2¢ lower at $4.79.

May soymeal futures are 1.70¢ per short ton higher at $311.11.

May soy oil futures are 0.03 lower at 30.82¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.50 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 205 points higher.

 

Mike

 

 

7 Replies
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, February 25, 2019

GLAD TO SEE YOU BACK!

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, February 25, 2019

Welcome back, Marketeye Mike....missed your daily market updates.

 

Yeah, a Four in front of the corn contract, and a Ten in front o the soybean contract would get a lot of smiles.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, February 25, 2019

With all this cold and snow 10" and 15"  and still below zero this afternoon, I wonder about the prospects of a early planting start?   I know it can change alot in a short time, but to get in the field much at all in April, Mother Nature will have to really get her act together.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, February 25, 2019

BA DEERE,

 

23 days to Spring. Weather may take center stage, ahead of any trade issue.

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, February 25, 2019

unlgrad,

 

Thanks for the kind words. I'm glad to be back.

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, February 25, 2019

WELCOME BACK !!
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, February 25, 2019

62 degrees today at 2 pm with snow melting.
25 degrees 6 hrs later and 13 in the morning
Been a wild winter mike. You may have called our spring issue.

Hope you stayed in and warm the last few weeks.

You were missed.
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