Floor Talk February 28

[Tony_Dreibus]

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures finished 2 3/4¢ higher at $3.82. July futures ended 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.89 1/2. May soybean futures settled 6¢ higher at $10.55 1/2.  July soybean futures closed 5 3/4¢ higher at $10.64 1/4. May wheat futures ended 18¢ higher at $4.95. May soy meal futures closed $5.50 per short ton higher at $394.70. January soy oil futures finished 0.17 lower at 32.23¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.36 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 40 points lower.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says that the ag commodities’ markets are benefitting from crop-weather problems.
“The weather market continues in all grains lead by soybean meal. The meal market hit contract highs for the third straight week, due to dry weather concerns in Argentina,” Roose says.

Roose adds, “The wheat market continues to find support on poor crop ratings in the U.S. wheat and cold weather damage to Black Sea wheat.” 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the May corn futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $3.82. July futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $3.90. May soybean futures are 7 1/2¢ higher at $10.57.  July soybean futures are 7 1/4¢ higher at $10.65. May wheat futures are 17 1/2¢ higher at $4.94 1/2. May soy meal futures are $7.50 per short ton higher at $396.70. January soy oil futures are 0.01 lower at 32.39¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.79 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 41 points lower.

Mike

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At 9:40am:

If you missed it, the USDA announced fresh soybean exports Wednesday.

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 250,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Mike

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At 9:00am:

In early trading, the May corn futures are 3¢ higher at $3.82. July futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.89. May soybean futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $10.55.  July soybean futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $10.63. May wheat futures are 14 1/2¢ higher at $4.91. May soy meal futures are $4.90 per short ton higher at $394.10. January soy oil futures are 0.15 higher at 32.55¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.15 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 158 points higher.

Mike

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Soybeans hit the highest since last February overnight as the drought in Argentina continues. A government official said this week that the country's soybeans will be affected due to lack of rain and JPMorgan Chase said in an analyst note that $3.1 billion has been shaved off the value of the crop. Beans gained another 8 cents overnight. Wheat was up 6-7 cents on the ongoing southern Plains drought, and corn was following, gaining a penny. In other news, Sen. Grassley of Iowa said after a meeting with the president that no agreement was reached on reforming the Renewable Fuel Standard. He said in a statement that he reminded the president of his commitment to farmers and said while it's unfortunate one refiner shut down on the East Coast, that shouldn't mean 50,000 Iowans and farmers in 14 other states should face losing their livelihoods. In weather news, flooding continues from Arkansas to Kentucky and in Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. Check out today's 3 Big Things for all the details at https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-february-28.

Brent Crude Oil = down 0.1%.

West Texas Intermediate = down 0.1%.

Dollar = up 0.2%

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks mixed overnight.

[lsc76cat]

Interesting to read various accounts of the refinery's "bankruptcy" story.

Bloomberg leaves out information that the Philadelphia Inquirer includes.

CNN's story at least includes a paragraph with a quote from an RFS rep and mentions

   the investigation into Carl Icahn's activities.

http://www.philly.com/philly/business/energy/philadelphia-energy-solutions-files-bankruptcy-plan-201...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/biggest-u-s-east-coast-oil-refiner-seeks-bankrupt...

http://money.cnn.com/2018/01/22/investing/oil-refinery-bankruptcy-philadelphia-energy-solutions/inde...

Funny how time and again it's as much or more about what they don't say that exposes the storyteller.

[illinifarmer]

Exactly it’s a joke, on top of that local coop just raised basis again another 10c across the board. So the last four times the market has risen slightly above harvest prices the elevators have increased basis to withhold even another penny to the producers.

[erikjohnson61y]

Coops suck. they know they have a 15 cent advantage until (if?) congress fix the section 199A thing in the tax law. You think they'll pass that on to you?  Maybe in a patronage check someday. Be open to hauling further to get a better price.  Get a semi if you don't have one. I did that three years ago. In combination with crop insurance and enough bin space to hold half the crop, I can hedge and spread hauling throughout the year and get 75 cents to a dollar better than local spot prices. At the Cargill plant, I can see prices and basis for every board contract month out to July 2019.  I pick the price and delivery date I want. Costs me about 18 cents a bushel to haul to Cargill, if I don't pay myself anything for my time, but that's good thinking time, and the flexibility the truck gives me at harvest is just gravy over and above the hauling to the plant. Can't imagine going back to demco wagons.

[illinifarmer]

I agree with you completely. I run two trucks now the difference at harvest is astounding. Keep storage in bins when possible however at the prices last few years I have to sell out if the field to pay bills for crop I’m harvesting. Marketing and storage throughout the year is an option a lot of us haven’t seen in quite some time. I suppose the main point is after 6 months of storage and drying plus freight and today’s basis I lose roughly 20c on the bushel from harvest. The market is roughly 50c higher and because of these unregulated coops I make considerable less.? Meanwhile the same as you apparently my time is free I have never made any more or less doing it myself it’s the only option I’ve ever had. Figured in hourly pay for myself if I was under employment somewhere else, definitely eating about 15,000$. Nothing like working for free while the rich get ridiculous tax breaks to make more.