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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk February 5, 2021

After the close:

 

FYI:  

On Friday, USDA released U.S. ethanol exports for 2020, which totaled 1.334 billion gallons in 2020, down 9.8 percent from 2019 and hovering around 2017 levels, according to Growth Energy. 

Canada took over as the top export market for U.S. ethanol, with 326.4 million gallons (mg) for the year.

Brazil dropped to the second U.S. export market, at 188.8 mg, a 40% difference from 2019.

In India we saw an 9.1% increase at 189.6 mg. The fourth largest export market in 2020 was South Korea at 105.8 mg, followed by the Netherlands at 77.5 mg.

Mike

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At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures finished 1 1/2¢ lower at $5.48 1/2. May corn futures closed unchanged at $5.47 1/2. New crop December corn futures closed unchanged at $4.51 1/4.

March soybean futures closed 5 3/4¢ lower at $13.66 3/4. May soybean futures closed 3 1/2¢ lower at $13.65 1/2. New crop November futures closed 3/4¢ higher at $11.61.

March wheat futures finished 3 3/4¢ higher at $6.41 1/4.


March soymeal futures finished $2.60 short term lower at $430.50.


March soy oil futures closed 0.28 lower at 44.66¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.77 per barrel higher (+1.37%) at $57.00. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 94 points higher (+0.30%) at 31,149 points.

Mike

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At midsession:

 

At midsession, the March corn futures are 3/4¢ lower at $5.49. May corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $5.48. New crop December corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $4.52 1/4.

March soybean futures are 7¢ higher at $13.79. May soybean futures are 4 3/4¢ higher at $13.73 1/2. New crop November futures are 5¢ higher at $11.65 1/4.

March wheat futures are 6 1/4¢ higher at $6.43 1/4.

March soymeal futures are $2.50 short term lower at $435.60.


March soy oil futures are 0.22 higher at 45.16¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.93 per barrel higher (+1.65%) at $57.16. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 179 points higher (+0.58%) at 31,235 points.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the markets are fairly calm, ahead of next week's USDA Report.
“A quiet day for me today. We are a little higher across the board and I think we are generally anticipating bullish WASDE numbers on Tuesday. Not much to say, otherwise, about the market today," Scoville says.

Mike

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At 8:45am:

 

Backwardation in the farm markets continue Friday.

 

Mike

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2 Replies
BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 5, 2021

JMO but this slow down is a good thing long term.  Wasn`t one of Soy Roy`s "Nevers" never sell beans in February?  

I saw in article the Kluis associate mentioned silver which some thought in past traded parallel with soybeans.  I heard the above ground supply of silver (excluding jewelry) is 1/4oz per person on earth, roughly 2 billion oz and close to 8 billion people.   So for $30 you can own 4 times more than the average person. Just a fun fact.    Smiley Happy

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 5, 2021

February 5, 2021

Early Soybean Yields in Mato Grosso Continue to be Variable

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Brazilian farmers in the municipality of Sorriso, which is located in central Mato Grosso, have harvested approximately 10% of their 2020/21 soybeans. Sorriso is the largest soybean municipality in Brazil responsible for more than 600,000 hectares of soybeans (1.48 million acres).

The President of the Rural Syndicate of Sorriso estimates the average yield thus far at 60 sacks per hectare (53.6 bu/ac), which he considers positive given the irregular weather during the first few months of the growing season. The early yields range from 37 sacks per hectare to 74 sacks (30.3 bu/ac to 66.1 bu/ac).

The municipality of Sorriso is also the site of a mysterious new soybean disease. The disease results in individual rotted seeds inside of full-sized green pods. The disease was first spotted in 2018 and it seems to be spreading, but scientists are not sure how widespread it has become. They have also not yet identified the cause of the disease or a fungicide that will control it.

In the municipality of Campos de Julio, which is located in western Mato Grosso, farmers have harvested 15% to 20% of their soybeans compared to 30% to 40% which is normal for this time of the year.

These early soybeans were the ones most impacted by dry weather in October and November. As a result, the yields are quite variable ranging from 40 sacks per hectare to 70 sacks (35.7 bu/ac to 62.5 bu/ac). Farmers are expecting higher yields when the harvest moves into the later maturing soybeans.

The current price of soybeans in the state is approximately R$ 150 per sack (approximately $12.85 per bushel), but most farmers in the state had forward contracted more than half of the anticipated soybean production at much lower prices.