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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 5

Corn in the low 3's and especially "IF" it starts with a 2 will be some of the smaller worries we will have.

 

That scenario will happen with a world economy crash. Deflation and a political situation even more out of control than it is now.

 

Would come with a collapse of all of the support systems we take for granted now. Parts, fuel, fert, seed, rule of law, and the list goes on...

 

Every 750 to 1000 years the human condition has had a reset (dark age of only survival) Guess what? ...

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aaron-neill
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 5


@Doug N wrote:

Why does everyone have such a big problem with someone making a case for a scenario that could happen?  I wonder if anyone would have been up in arms if a story that made the case for $6 corn had been written?  What does it hurt to examine a situation that probably won't come to pass but should at least be on our radar?  And it doesn't have to be $2 corn, $3 - $3.50 corn with the basis we have in my area will put a lot of people on thin ice.


Well Doug why doesn't he make the case for say $1.60 corn?  I mean corn went that low back in 1987?  You want to know something funny that $1.60 corn today is worth $3.28 with inflation!  Don't people ever look at things with a broad brush?  Inputs are not anywhere close to where they were 10-years ago let along 25, why would grain prices for any extended period?  It's very poor journalism at best.

425Cat
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 5

Mike,

Seems like somebody is always behind the curtain jerking our chain.
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Doug N
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 5

So a dollar drop in corn will be catasrophic in your opinion?  Or in otther words catastrophic events need to take place for corn to drop a dollar?  What if we just raise another big crop?

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childofthecorn
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 5

You don't have to go back to 1987 to find corn going for $1.60 , in 2006 it was $1.51 at my local elevator and it might have even been lower but I just quite looking.

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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 5

don't drink the diesel, Cat!..stick with the etoh...............

 

heard of a guy who one time accidentally filled up his BMW motorcycle w/ diesel fuel instead of gasoline - while on a long road trip....luckily, he found a good, patient mechanic in the local town he was in - think it was somewhere in Canada or Alaska - to essentially take the engine apart and clean it out..............

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 5

SEE anybody can make a "prediction"

 

I did not use the word catastrophic.

 

Corn with a 2 as it's first # will triger a reaction as bad as anything in the mid 80's after 15 months.

 

How will the mega dealers with their lots full and layers of managers and payroll and pmts last?

 

What about some of the input suppliers if there is a 30% cut in buying of fert etc?

 

Might be a lot of the support staff without employment.

 

I'm willing to wager @ $3 anything some will not get financed. How will it work with a 2 as the first #?

 

The investors, widow ladies and retired farmers will not be spending what they no longer have and can not get either.

 

"catastrophic" NOT for all ... but enough to make headlines and consolidate the landscape even further.

 

The new farm bill giveaway seems to have this covered with the new improved crop insurance/sure type provisions. This type of system has been working in some European countries...I have never seen the % of late model equip on as small of farms as I have in some of Europe.

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Doug N
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 5

People will adapt or go out of business.  Ag is cyclical.  Nothing new.  When supply gets to small we over produce and make it too large.  The government intervention will be the wild card.  When government tries to intervene and take out the highs and lows it just ends in a more massive blowout when it goes one way or another.

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 5

Well if and buts were candy and nuts we would all have a good christmas
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