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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk February 6

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $3.81 1/2 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $9.77.

March wheat futures are trading unchanged to $5.25. The March soybean meal futures are trading $2.20 per short ton lower at $329.20. March soyoil futures are trading $0.01 lower at $31.70.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $1.32 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 13 points higher.

 

Joe Bedore, CME Group floor trader says he continues to be surprised at a market that doesn't fall as far, based upon the bearish news that is out there.
"You have another record South American soybean crop, all of the talk is that U.S. farmers will plant more soybeans this year. Yet, we have a heck of a time breaking this market," Bedore says.
"On corn, that market doesn't have positive fundamentals either. Yet, corn just keeps coming back up, at the end of the day," he says.
So, the Fund money must be keeping these markets from breaking badly, Bedore says.

 

Also, a stronger U.S. Dollar on better U.S. Jobs report is causing technical selling in the grain markets. It's the first day of the "Goldman Roll" period. This Roll lasts for five trading days.
.

 

Mike

----------

At 7:00am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 5-7 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $1.34 higher per barrel.
Dollar =Higher, 
Wall Street = Seen lower, as it seems skittish ahead of U.S. Jobs Report.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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6 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 6

Unfortunately I am reading this late in the day.  

I have met Joe and enjoyed his work.  He has a job on this farm if he needs it.  Smiley Happy

Thanks Joe.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 6

I agree.  It sounds like Joe needs to get out more.     Smiley Wink

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 6

I think that Joe needs to look at the over all picture - just not what the talking heads are putting out -  Morristown Bunge is + .10 today - with a so called record crop ???? I would guess they are crushing at near full capacity = 200,000 bu per day - they are dumping around 400 trucks a day - not to say how much is coming in on rail - which is a lot - But Joe heres what your missing in my book - look at the bean meal and bean oil margins - yes  SA may -- MAY have a record crop but they just  can't crush bean meal and ship it out like we do here , all most all our meal go's out on rail , to the southeast or export . We can't forget Louis Drefus either to our North about a hour and a half - they are buring up beans hard to - along with Bunge at Decatur and not even touched on the beans heading to the river ,  it will be interesting as we get into the late spring  months maybe even early summer - thats when beans could have the big drop as meal margins should drop from SA , maybe ?

 

Corn is a funny deal here - we did have a record type crop here - The flat storage building was full = 1.5 mil. the outside storage was full = 1 mi. plus about a million at the bottom of the hill . they picked up the outside storage this week = dam good idea - loading out trains left and right - yet only - .10 basis ? Plus the ethanol plants are sorrceing corn from near by - they are a hour and a half north of us , they are even to plus 13 , and this was a record crop ? i think that most farmers are holding on hard to what they have - or till it hits what ? 4 dollars or so - then it will be he11 to try and move it .

 

Well Joe -- thats my thoughts Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 6

MARKET HEADLINES

Quick Editorial: the silence from the grain market bulls is deafening this
morning—an attempted follow
-through on the surprising rally was short-lived 

without the support of the outside markets. The elephant in the room is still

massive, record crop production around much of the globe for 2014 & 2015..

 

How's that ECIN,  a quote from FC Stone's marketing comments one morning a couple of days back.

Unfortunate that is the lie promotion Joe has to dance to.

 

 

 

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 6

How true sw - They do have to dance with the USDA - numbers - along with all the X-perts - so called numbers - But as Joe said - or asked - how do's the prices keep coming back with so much bear news - my point was - to Joe - the demand is NOT as dead as they think - Not to say it won't break  for now - to me - its the demand to things going - along with the farmers holding grain - on farm storage is the elevators biggest competitors - They can have a world record - but if it's tied up in sheet matal - then what ? As I said - corn hits say 4 to 4.25 and then the basis here will problably go to - .50 and they will be swamped with the record crop - then Joe and his friends will say - Finally . Smiley Happy

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 6

It is just a premise that has no support.  There have not been record crops world wide.  I am seeing pictures of drought corn in South Africa.  Drought areas of Brazil. Crop damage from ukraine, etc etc.

 

The expression of world wide Record Crop the world around is as impossible as diseaster the world around.  The worlds weather circulates.

But more odd is the fact that it is "news opinion" spread by a brokerage organization that has a much better view on who is buying and selling futures contracts in terms of speculation investment and grain movement transactions.

 

The obvious fact that it is taking 20-25% more bushels to finance debt and 2015 crop inputs, which for the most part have not declined in cost other than fuel, is pressuring the futures market as more bushels get sold than necessary the last three years.  And I agree with you, as I have said before, the best news of the last 10 years is not drought it is demand.  The corn market is acting quite nicely through a time frame that is probably as strony a pressure aw any part of the season.  

That is why I am following the wheat market ------ and I don't have a clue what I was thinking for wheat.

 

It is obvious more and more fall crops are being held by producers longer.  Or at least bypassing middle men(coop and private) at an ever increasing rate.  A subject I would like to here FC Stone comment on.  I am sure you are touching on a subject they have an opinion on.  

In three weeks I will get a chance to ask and stumble over the expression of that opinion so I don't loose my account.  Smiley Happy

Hate for me and Joe to both be retraining.

 

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