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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk February 9, 2021 (Report Day)

USDA SAYS:

 

USDA doesn't adjust U.S. ending stocks as much as thought

 

Trade Reaction:

Peter J. Meyer, S&P Global Platts, head of grain and oilseed analytics, says that the corn market was disappointed with just a 50 million bushel increase in corn exports.
“Many, including S&P Global Platts, were expecting a 150 million bushel increase on the heels of the record Chinese purchases at the end of January, but the USDA’s World Board continues to be reactive rather than proactive," Meyer says.

Meyer added, "The structural imbalance, demand minus production, in China now stands at 28.3 million mt. against our 29 million mt. forecast. We believe that number can stretch to 32 million mt. next year, pushing Chinese corn imports as high as 30 million MT in 2021-22 versus the current USDA estimate of 24 million MT for the current marketing year. The imbalance is up over 10 million MT year-over-year, something that we believe will continue to grow. No changes to South American corn production was expected."

Soybeans were much less of a story as an increase of 20 million bushels in exports was widely expected. Soybean production in Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged, Meyer says.

 

--Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that after six months of friendly crop reports, multiple days of contract highs in the corn, bean and wheat complex, as ending stocks drop with record exports, today's report shows a continued drop of 50 mln in the ending stock category for corn. This lowered the carryout to 1.502 bln bushels, which was larger than expected. Average farm price was increased 10¢ to 4.30. Soybean stocks were dropped from 140 to 120 mln with an increase in exports of 20 mln. World corn ending stocks were increased with Brazil and Argentinas corn and soybean crop estimates mildly unchanged from the January report.

With a steady flow of bullish news and premium currently priced in, key items to watch will be South America harvest, and world currencies.

 

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the report was negative to expectations for corn, in-line and showing a very tight situation for beans, and better than expected for wheat.
“Wheat is down anyway with weakness in the other markets. Prices are suffering especially in corn after the report, but I don't think it will last too long as the situation remains bullish and USDA might have to adjust for more demand and less ending stocks. The beans data is bullish as the situation there is super tight and beans have strength for now. The corn should rebound in another day or two, I think. The demand has been very good," Scoville says.

Mike

-------------------

At midsession:

 

At midsession, the March corn futures are 7¢ lower at $5.56 3/4. May corn futures are 7 1/4¢ lower at $5.54 1/2. New crop December corn futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $4.54.

March soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $13.92. May soybean futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $13.89. New crop November futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $11.83.

March wheat futures are 7 3/4¢ lower at $6.48.

March soymeal futures are $0.60 short term lower at $436.00.


March soy oil futures are 0.41 higher at 46.04¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.28 per barrel higher (+0.48%) at $58.25. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 2 points higher (+0.01%) at 31,387 points.

 

Mike

-----------

At 8:45am:

 

Beans hit $14 Tuesday.

 

Mike

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10 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 9, 2021 (Report Day)

Poor Al Klueless, like a little boy lost in a three acre forest...

 

https://us11.campaign-archive.com/?u=8d3c6770418c4ea65287a7768&id=2afd7792ab

 

Don't forget to scroll down to the maps at the bottom

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 9, 2021 (Report Day)

Ha ha....... but did you mean a three tree forest?🌲🌲🌲

 

But hey, I do appreciate his comments. Sure seems like marketing comments in general are hard to come by these days.

Just ignore us Al, we are usually just letting off steam. 😉

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 9, 2021 (Report Day)

No worries plenty to go around. Nothing to see here.

 

Don't worry be happy.

 

Basic "can kicking 101"

 

 

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illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 9, 2021 (Report Day)

USDA accuracy speaks for it self over the last year.  For these traders to take retreating actions on this market based on usda info reeks of incompetence. Vilsack !!!

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 9, 2021 (Report Day)

Glickman under Clinton and Vilsack under Obama were only good at cashing their paycheck.

You expected something new and improved with the same old swamp back in charge?

 

 If something good happens it will be inspite of them not because of them.

 

Without a severe act of God USDA will never print anything less than 100 million beans or 1.25 billion on corn period. They will take their sweet time getting there too. By then they will he projecting another record crop to beat us down with.

 

OH JOY

the beatings will continue until moral improves...

(Just remember whatever little drop we have today the prices are way better than we thought they'd be back in August)

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 9, 2021 (Report Day)

Notice that china hoped into propaganda mode this week as well with------

"China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said on Tuesday it had found eight companies and research institutes that illegally produced or carried out research on genetically modified (GM) seeds.

Without a doubt China's CP certainly knows how false and misleading the information in this article is.  Reuters as well should know better to promote this propaganda without verification of these entities and their "crimes".  This article is tabloid advertising for an entity to begin positioning for cheaper grain they have to buy in the near future from Brazil.

A bazaar article when considering that nearly all of the grain they purchase from the rest of the world is GMO grain bought by the CP for the country that falsely claims that GMO grain is illegal.   

So get in your mind step 2, 3, 4, 5 etc etc.   because it is coming...... this advertising campaign to control and manipulate the grain supply in the world........ Because leadership in the US is so dumb and blind and doesn't care if food is short in the US...... or if thier own messages are full of lies projected on them by a foreign power as long as they are protected from having to live with average people or whatever the poor have to do.  

 

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 9, 2021 (Report Day)

Leaves  US  asking,  will  the  Smithfield  Folks,   be  at  the  February  18   Kansas  Land  Auction , to  add  to  their  holdings  - ? 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk February 9, 2021 (Report Day)

I am going to address this in the Feedyard Talk......... cause it is time for such a thing come down the chimney anyway

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wwre1950
Contributor

Re: Floor Talk February 9, 2021 (Report Day)

Not worth replying.