Floor Talk, January 12, 2022 (Report Day)
--A Chicago trader says: "The USDA raised oil yield from 11.75 to 11.83. it raised production by 175 million lbs
and was off set by raising soy oil exports..In subsequent report we assume the USDA can raise bean crush and raise exports by another 200 -300 million lbs..
will most likely raise Food use as canola crush declines.. and lower fuel use.. but too early to make these adjustments
USDA without a clear change in policy or weather will be reluctant to make strident changes until trailing data
proves their merit so this was a move in the right direction but typical in its pace of change..
A bump in bean yields raised production by 10 million bushels and that dropped to ending stocks in line with the
average trade guess.
The USDA has wrote 5 mt of bean production off of Brazil and down 3 in Argentina, down 1.5 in Paraguay. So down 9.5 mt, due to dryness in Southern Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. If recent rain forecast for next week is diminished or if
dry pattern returns Argentina can come down further. Some pundits suggesting a 20-23 mt decline can happen in SA production.
This would most likely elevate US exports late summer, and keep high crush margins and rates in the US intact in the coming year.
In other markets we noted smaller than expected acres for HRW… somewhat supportive for new crop, though lost in disappointing trade news into Iraq.
The corn report was not much changed from posted expectations.. Higher old crop acreage and unchanged yields dropped higher production to the bottom line. Higher ethanol use was acknowledged but off set with slightly lower exports. Not qualms with a 47 million bushel increase in ending stocks.
Stocks came in 40 million bushels above trade guess.. so not much there.
The general bias is for profit taking post report, better rains for this weekend in SA would help that bias."
Re: Floor Talk, January 12, 2021 (Report Day)
Went by the Lincoln Nebraska ADM plant this morning.
Two rows of semis clear out to the hwy about 10:30 AM
Quite a few hopper bottom semis on the road everywhere this morning on our drive.
Less farm stored grain this evening than yesterday.