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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk January 12 (REPORT DAY)

USDA SAYS:

 

U.S. Yield
In its report Friday, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2017 corn crop’s average yield at 176.6, bushels per acre (a record), compared with the average trade estimate of 175.4 bu./acre and its estimate of 175.4 last month.

For soybeans, the final U.S. average yield is estimated at  49.1 bu./acre vs. the average trade estimate of 49.5 bu./acre and the USDA’s estimate of 49.5 last month.

U.S. ENDING STOCKS
The U.S. 2017/18 corn ending stocks estimate is pegged at 2.477 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 2.43 billion and the USDA’s December estimate of 2.437 billion bushels.
For soybean ending stocks, the USDA sees 470 million bushels at the end of the 2017/18 marketing year, while the trade’s average estimate is 479 million. Last month, the USDA’s estimate was 445 million bushels.
The USDA sees the U.S. 2017/18 wheat ending stocks at 989 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 959 million and last month’s USDA estimate of 960 million.

U.S. Dec. 1 Stocks
In its Quarterly Grain Stocks Report, the USDA pegged Dec. 1 corn stocks at 12.516 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 12.42 billion bushels. Last year, USDA pegged Dec. 1 corn stocks at 12.3 billion.
The U.S. soybean Dec. 1 stocks are estimated at 3.157 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 3.17 billion.

 

TRADE REACTIONS:

 

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that Wheat prices are down over 2% largely because US wheat planted acres were higher than expected, but the global balance sheet for wheat is largely unchanged, meaning current price declines could be temporary because total world wheat consumption is still estimated to be the highest on record at 741.7 million metric tons.

 

Soybean prices are higher because of record global demand again this year, which the markets sees as an unrelenting trend.

 

--Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says that today's quarterly grain stocks and crop production report continues to tell us there is no shortage of grain in the world.
“The USDA increased the corn production by 26 mln bushels ,increased the yield to 176.6 and increased world ending stocks from 204.1 to 206.6 mmt. Quarterly stocks also confirmed demand was lower on corn ,beans and wheat, the larger increase in wheat stocks with lower feed and residual use will limit upside,” Roose says.

 

--Brian A. Rydlund, CHS Market Analyst:
The eye poppers:  wheat acres NOT down as much as trade thought or talked …..ALL Wheat acres down just slightly from last year & futures sell off on the news
 
Dec 1 stocks     Wheat higher than average guess (1.849 bil bu)     @   1.874 bil bu
                                    Corn stock came in @ 12.516 bil bu         vs avg guess of  12.431              so heavy   as expected
                                    Soybean stocks  came in @ 3.157 bil bu           vs avg trade guess of   3.181        slightly friendly            futures traded up initially   selling off 10 minutes later
 
 
CORN S&D      harvested acres down 400,000 to 82.7 mil ac      planted down 200,000 to   90.2        crop 14.6 bil bu     right on avg guess            yield up to 176.6   new record      avg guess was   175.4  bpa      same as Novembver     ethanol & exports unchanged on demand side    so crop bigger         carryout grows a tad    to 2.477 bil bu        avg farm price holds      basically …………futures move lower     CH18 makes new low for the move     @  3.46
 
 
SOY S&D    harvested acres unchanged        yield down .4 bpa   to   49.1 bpa       crush up 10 mil bu     exports cut to 2.160    from 2.225     carryout up to 470   avg farm price comes down       on top end 20c    up 20 on bottom end   
 
 
Wheat      no big surprises     here    on    S&D              shock was we DID NOT see smaller US acres today  

 

--Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group's Senior Market Analyst, says the whisper campaign had it backwards.  Beans ending stocks are lower and corn is higher, mostly on demand concerns.  USDA should have satisfied the beans demand bears with its reduction in demand, but the production is more important and kept the stocks from going uop.  We expected less corn production but did not get it and that has pushed corn a little lower.  The other big surprise is the wheat seedings that were higher than expected in every class.  That was the big bearish surprise on the report.  I doubt corn goes down much, and beans can hold and come back a bit on these estimates.  Wheat I think remains a weather market but the higher planted area does hurt the upside potential."

 

 

What say you?

 

 

Mike

 

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At 1:30pm:

If you missed it, earlier today, the USDA announced fresh corn exports.

 

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 320,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

 

 

Mike

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At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures finished 21/2¢ lower at $3.46 1/4. May futures ended 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.54 3/4. March soybean futures settled 10¢ higher at $9.60 1/2.  May soybean futures closed 11¢ higher at $9.72. March wheat futures ended 12 3/4¢ lower at $4.20 1/2. March soy meal futures closed  $3.90 per short ton higher at $317.00. January soy oil futures ended 0.02 lower at 33.13¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.42 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 180 points higher.

 

Mike

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In early trading:

At 9:05, the March corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.49. May futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.57. March soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $9.47.  May soybean futures are 2¢ lower at $9.59. March wheat futures are 3/4¢ higher at $4.34. March soy meal futures are $0.70 per short ton lower at $312.40. January soy oil futures are 0.13 lower at 33.02¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.21 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 151 points higher.

 

Mike

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Grains and beans were little changed overnight ahead of the USDA reports due out today. Futures for all three -- corn, beans and wheat -- moved less than a penny in overnight trading. For WASDE, the USDA is expected to lower corn inventories while raising its outlook for soybean stocks. Dec. 1 stockpiles are also due with trade estimates at 12.431 billion bushels for corn and 3.181 billion for beans. In weather news, the winter storm that blew through the central Midwest the past couple of days is now onto the eastern Midwest. The storm warnings today start in eastern Illinois and stretch northeast to the Atlantic Coast in Maine. Those in affected areas can expect several inches of snow, strong winds and ice, according to the National Weather Service. Check out all the details in today's 3 Big Things at https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-january-12.

 

Brent Crude Oil = down 0.9%.

West Texas Intermediate = down 1%.

Dollar = down 0.6%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks higher overnight.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12

I would like to see the day the check off dollars and the  'farm bureau' get the laws changed so all USDA reports  can only be released 20 minutes before opening trade in the morning...i.e. 8:10 a,m. CST.  They should only be released when trade is CLOSED and not before overnight trading.

 

So much common sense there and leveling of the trading floor it is hard to imagine why it hasn't always been that way.  What a waste of time to have it in the middle of the trading day.

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