Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)
At the close:
At the close, the March corn futures settled 1¢ higher at $3.57, and new-crop December 2017 futures finished 1/4¢ higher at $3.86 per bushel.
March soybean futures closed 28 3/4¢ higher at $10.40 1/4, while November 2017 soybean futures closed 18 1/2¢ higher at $10.16 1/2.
March wheat futures finished 7 1/2¢ higher at $4.26 1/4.
March soy meal futures closed $13.00 short ton higher at $327.90. March soy oil futures finished 0.07¢ higher at 36.07¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.87 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 60 points lower at 19,893 points.
At mid-session, the March corn futures are 1¢ lower at $3.56, and new-crop December 2017 futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.85 per bushel.
March soybean futures are 16¢ higher at $10.27, while November 2017 soybean futures are 10¢ higher at $10.08.
March wheat futures are 8¢ higher at $4.26.
March soy meal futures are $5.30 short ton higher at $320.20. March soy oil futures are 0.26¢ higher at 35.26¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.85 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 126 points lower at 19,820 points.
Corn= 15.148 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectations of 15.196. Yield estimate at 174.6 bu./acre
Soybeans= 4.307 bill. bu. vs. the trade's expectations of 4.374 bill. Yield pegged at 52.3 bu./acre
Grain Stocks, As of Dec. 1
Corn= 12.1 bill. bu. vs. the trade's expectatons of 12.30 bill.
Soybeans= 2.895 bill. vs. the trade's expetations of 2.935 bill.
Wheat= 2.073 bill bu. vs. the trade's expectations of 2.056
U.S. Ending Stocks
Wheat= 1.18 billion bushels
Corn= 2.35 billion
Soybeans= 420 million vs. the trade's expectations of 468 million.
What say you?
--Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that the initial reaction for today's multi-faceted crop production report was mixed in the grains.
“Production was lowered in both corn and soybeans which was a mild surprise, world cornstocks were lowered slightly from last month but the South America bean production was increased slightly from last month which was mildly disappointing.”
--Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Investment Co., says this report will be viewed as supportive, especially to soybeans. “Yields went down, not UP. We digested a BIG increase in Brazil production and still World soy stocks declined. Argentina likely has some room to move down on production, especially if wet weather continues.
This report will keep the spreads favoring soybeans over corn for 2017 planting season,” Ward says.
--Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s Senior Market Analyst, says the reports are bullish.
“All numbers came in below expectations for corn and soybeans. Even rice much less yield and much closer to the truth there. The ending stocks estimates also well below expectations,” Scoville says.
“So far, I have not seen much for the bear on this report except for the end of the day there is still a lot out there. The wheat acreage loss is very significant, but could have been bigger,” Scoville says.
Scoville adds, “We are having a big push higher early, we see how well it holds, but the market is not negative at all as beans starting to break out higher on the daily charts, wheat already trending up a bit on weekly charts and hoping to close here. Plus, the daily charts flip back long and corn still in range.”
--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading founder, says that the report shows adequate supplies of all grains are confirmed in this report.
“But, the corn and soybean markets do not seem entirely comfortable with reduced supply estimates, and wheat prices are holding even with record large current inventories, undoubtedly due to U.S. Winter Wheat plantings ten percent lower than last year.”
Gilbert adds, “The grain markets seem to be signaling that with demand for all grains still at record annual levels, now is not the time of year for complacency with regard to the ability of farmers to meet future demand growth with another year of record production. Now that the numbers are in, the question on everyone’s mind is “What might happen if the weather isn’t perfect again next year?”
If you missed the 8am USDA Report, here it is:
Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:
--Export sales of 110,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2016/2017 marketing year; and
--Export sales of 253,488 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/2017 marketing year.
The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.
In early trading, the March corn futures are 3/4¢ lower at $3.56, and new crop December 2017 futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.85 per bushel. March soybean futures are 1/4¢ higher at $10.11, while November 2017 soybean futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $9.96. March wheat futures are 1/4¢ higher at $4.19. March soy meal futures are $1.20 short ton higher at $316.10. March soy oil futures are $0.26 lower at 35.74¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.05 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 109 points lower at 19,840 points.
Corn and beans were mixed ahead of WASDE today as investors don't want to risk being on the wrong side of a USDA shock. While that's unlikely to happen -- analysts are expecting US production, at least, to remain unchanged, South American output to mostly rise and Dec. 1 stocks (in a separate report) to be higher than the prior year, there's always the outside chance that the government will do something crazy and cause violent swings in the market. Corn was down a penny and beans were up a penny. In other news, ethanol production rose to another record last week, and gas prices are forecast to rise in 2017, the EIA said. Also, the dollar is down almost a fully percent overnight -- good news for farmers as that could bring some overseas buyers to the table.
Here's what happened overnight:
Brent Crude Oil = 1.4% higher.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 1.2% higher.
Dollar = down 0.9%.
Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in pre-bell trading.
World Markets = Global stocks decline ahead of US opening.
Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)
Corn & soybeans continue to disappear faster than most have predicted. It's amazing how well putting something "on sale" actually works.
when you need a good laugh
just read some of the comments about the report.....
of which.....hrw +13 beans +29 corn +1
"...for today's multi-faceted crop production report was mixed in the grains"
"...report shows adequate supplies of all grains..."
"...the grain markets seems to be ignaling that with demand of all grains still at record annual levels, now is not the time of year for complacency with regard to the aility of farmers to meet future demand growth with another year of record production"
"now tht the numbrs are in, the question on everone's mind is what might happen if the weather isn't perfect again next year ?"
1. with numbers above, i don't think it's mixed......all were in the same direction, just some not as much as others.
2 this is not the time of year........i don't think we're planting much, at least in the plains.....
3. what if things are not perfect this comming year.........it SHOULD go up......but i've had it hit me over the head so many times
that we have too much grain.......they have been telling this....looking at stocks/use at 10% or 60% for wheat....and telling us
they don't see much upside, and you need to sell now........i've been to one meeting already saying that..........
4. With wheat seeding equal to 1909 (the year my grandpa was born)....winterkill issue, drought/dryness issues, and not
alot of inputs made on the upcomming crop........will there be fireworks in chicago at the board of trade on the 4th of july ?
but.....if you don't raise much, or planted much....you will not profit.........and this past fall there was no hope given.