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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

At the close:

 

 

 

 

The March corn futures settled 1 3/4 cents higher at $4.02 per bushel.
March soybean futures finished 36 1/4 cents lower at $10.16.

 

 

 

March wheat futures settled 8 1/4 cents lower to $5.55. The March soybean meal futures closed $7.90 per short ton lower at $341.20. March soyoil futures closed $1.08 lower at $32.60.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $2.44 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 93 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 12:20pm:

 

The March corn futures are trading 4 1/4 cents higher at $4.04 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading  26 cents lower at $10.26.

 

March wheat futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower to $5.61. The March soybean meal futures are trading $5.60 per short ton lower at $343.50. March soyoil futures are trading $0.70 lower at $32.98.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $1.91 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 89 points lower.

 

Mike

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Trade Reaction:

--Helen Pound, Vice President, Wedbush Securities Inc., Futures Division, says that analysts anticipate surprises in the USDA January release of the monthly S+D, Quarterly Stocks and Winter Wheat Seeding Reports.  Today was no exception.  US and World corn stocks tightened up on decreased US yields and increased feeding and ethanol demand.  US bean stocks were unchanged as increased export projections were offset by more production and less crush.  World bean stocks increased on a well anticipated increase in Brazilian production.  World Wheat exports increased despite Russia’s export tariff.  US and World wheat carryover stocks increased.
     All in all, the reports were not bullish enough to support big premiums for beans and wheat over corn.
 
Corn
    •    Lower than expected World and US corn carryover stocks
    •    Quarterly stocks more than the average estimate, but well within the range of guesses
    •    Lower than expected US yield and production
    •    More feed and ethanol demand
Beans
    •    Unchanged US carryover stocks, but World stocks higher
    •    Quarterly stocks less than the average estimate, but well within the range of guesses
    •    US supply up 11 mln bu on better yield but less acres
    •    US crush down 19 mln by
    •    US exports up 30 – offset by increased production and lower crush
    •    Brazilian bean production up 1.5 mmt, but exports unchanged
Wheat
    •    Increased World and US carryover stocks
    •    Quarterly stocks above the average estimate, but well within the range of estimates
    •    Unexpected small increase in World wheat production – not major exporters/importers
    •    Russian exports decreased 2 mmt, while Ukraine exports increased 0.7 mmt and Kazakhstan up 0.3 mmt
    •    US wheat feeding down significantly – especially HRW and SRW
    •    2015 Winter Wheat Seeding were below the low end of the pre-report estimates."

 

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says that soybeans show nothing terribly bearish on their own, but USDA left ending stocks unchanged and world stocks estimated a little higher than expected too.  “That means that our export program is about over, in the eyes of USDA, and that is the reason for the weakness.”
The report showed nothing bearish at all in corn, Scoville says. “A little less production and stocks have supported that market and buying near $3.95 is not a bad idea, if you can.” 
Wheat was mixed, with less planted area and quarterly stocks. “But, we have troubles moving wheat. So, wheat is having trouble with the rally. The beans depend as much on the close as anything else. But, given the good weather in South America and the signals by USDA on demand, the burden is on the bull rather than the bear right now.”

 

--Sal Gilbertie | Teucrium Trading, says that arger than expected downward revisions to corn yields and corn ending stocks are the only surprises to speak of in this report.  "Continued strong global demand for soybeans is the main contributing factor to all-time high demand for US soybeans, led by a very strong, record high US export number. Global wheat supplies seem adequate, which is welcome news for end-users and consumers cautiously watching Ukraine and Russian export levels.
Overall, the report confirms record demand levels for soybeans and corn; from this point onward traders and investors will likely focus on the ability of farmers in the coming crop year to meet growing and record global demand for grains."

 

Mike

The Market is responding negatively to the USDA REPORT:

 

At 11:25am:

Soybeans have fallen 30 cents.

 

Mike

--------

At 11:07am:

Corn is lower to unchanged.

Soybeans down 15 cents

Wheat is getting hit the hardest!

 

USDA REPORT SAYS:

 

U.S. ENDING STOCKS

Corn= 1.877 billion bushels

 

Soybeans= 410 million

 

Wheat= 687 million

 

HARVESTED ACRES
The USDA pegged the U.S. 2014-15 corn harvested acres at 83.1 million, compared to the government’s December estimate of 83.0 million and the average analysts estimates 82.8 million.

For soybeans, the USDA estimate the U.S. 2014-15 harvested acreage at 83.1 million, vs. the average analysts estimate of 83.1 million and the USDA’s December estimate of 83.4 million.

2014-15 GRAIN PRODUCTION
In its report, the USDA pegged  2014-15 U.S. soybean production at 3.96 billion bushels, compared to the average analyst estimate of 3.965 billion bushels, and the USDA’s December estimate of 3.958 billion. National average yield estimated at 47.8 bushels per acre, vs. trade's expectations of 47.7.
For U.S. 2014-15 corn, the production is pegged at 14.21 billion bushels, compared with the average estimate of 14.366 billion bushels, and the USDA’s December estimate of 14.407 billion. The average corn yield is estimated at 171.0 bushels per acre, vs. the trade's expectation of 173.4.

 

GRAIN STOCKS
The Quarterly Grain Stocks Report, showing stocks on-hand as of Dec. 1, 2014.
USDA estimates the Dec. 1 soybean stocks at 2.52 billion bushels, vs. the average analysts estimate of 2.608 billion bushels.
For corn, stocks were pegged at 11.203 billion bushels, compared with the average analysts estimate of 11.161 billion.
USDA sees the Dec. 1 wheat stocks at 1.52 billion, vs. the trade’s expectations of 1.501 billion bushels.

 

.

 

Mike

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Full Story:
Market Eyes Feed Usage, Soybean Production in This Morning's USDA Report

 

-------------------------

At 9:50am:

 

  • If you missed it Friday, the CFTC Report showed:
  • Managed money= Corn contracts fell over 10,000 net in that category, vs. daily expectations of a 2,000 contract loss on the week ending last Tuesday, January 6th.
  • Swap dealers= Dropped over 19,000 corn contracts on the week.
  • Producers and merchants= Put on 45,266 net contracts, wityh longs adding over 26,000 and shorts reducing over 19,000.

Mike

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At the open:

 

 

The March corn futures are trading 3 1/4 cents lower at $3.97 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $10.47.

 

 

 

March wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher to $5.64. The March soybean meal futures are trading $1.40 per short ton lower at $347.70. March soyoil futures are trading $0.12 lower at $33.56.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $1.53 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 116 points lower.

 

Mike

---------

At 8am;

--No fresh USDA sales were announced, this morning.

--Reminder: After today's USDA number, the market focuses on Brazil's weather for direction. Tuesday night, Al Kluis, Kluis Commodities, invites all of you to join him for a 8:00pm webinar. I'll be there too. Aside from a review of what the USDA reports tell us, he'll address the five major factors that impact grain prices, and have a special guest; Brian Willott from Bahia, Brazil. Willott will take questions and offer a live report on current weather and crop conditions in Brazil. It's free. Sign-up at Kluis.com (click on Events tab).

 

Mike

-----------

At 7:30am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 4-5 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower. The USDA/WASDE Reports will be released at 11:00am CT, Monday.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Crude Oil = $1.57 lower per barrel.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street = Higher, with major earnings ahead.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

0 Kudos
6 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

Bearish numbers on this report, will cause prices to go down.

 

Slightly Bullish numbers on this report will cause prices to go down.

 

Very Bullish numbers, which is a long shot and prices might go up.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

Really?  Corn and soybean harvested acres are exactly the same?

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

Roaning: At least they could have been a little creative then that!

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

Haven't you heard of a 50/50 rotation?

0 Kudos
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

U.S. Corn-for-Feed Usage is estimated at 141.8 million bushels vs. the December estimate of 139.6 million. Not a big change here.

 

What else sticks out to you all?

 

Mike

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

"traders and investors will likely focus on the ability of farmers in the coming crop year to meet growing and record global demand for grains."

 

Not to worry here folks.   The USDA will come out in February and March with their record yield predictions and record supply predictions for the 2015 crops.      Don't worry.......be happy.

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