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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

USDA Says:

 

In its January Supply/Demand and Crop Production Reports, the USDA lowered its U.S. 2015/16 soybean carryout from its November estimate of 465 million bushels to 440 million bushels, and below the average trade estimate of 468 million bushels,
For corn, the U.S. 2015/16 carryout is seen at 1.802 billion bushels, compared with the average trade estimate of 1.785 billion bushels, equal to the USDA’s last estimate in November.
The U.S. 2015/16 wheat carryout is pegged at 915 million bushels, compared with the USDA’s previous estimate of 911 million bushels and the average trade estimate of 919 million.

Production
In its report, U.S. 2015 average corn yield is estimated at 168.4 bushels per acre vs. the average trade estimate of 169.5 bushels per acre, nearly equal to its November estimate of 169.3. For soybeans, the U.S. 2015 average soybean yield is estimated at 48.0 bushels per acre, compared with the average trade estimate of 48.5 bushels per acre vs. the USDA’s November estimate of 48.3 bushels per acre.

Quarterly Stocks
On Tuesday, the USDA pegs corn stocks, as of December 1, at 11.212 billion bushels, compared with the average trade estimate of 11.237 billion bushels.
USDA sees the soybean stocks at 2.175 billion bushels, vs. the average trade estimate of 2.72 billion bushels.
For wheat, the USDA sees quarterly stocks at 1.7 billion bushels, compared with the average trade estimate of 1.698 billion bushels.

World Numbers:

Brazil Soybean Production= Left at 100 million metric tons.

Argentina Soybean Prod.= Pegged at 57.0  mmt

 

World Corn Ending Stocks dropped by 3.0 million metric tons.

World Soybean Ending Stocks were dropped by 3.0 million metric tons.

 

TRADE REACTION

--Mike North, President of Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the shock that hit the market was the world ending stocks numbers.  
“Corn and soybeans each fell approximately 3 MMT short of the average guess.  This was compounded by the falling yield and acreage numbers.  Corn fell 0.9 bpa and caused a 53 million bu drop in corn production.  
North adds, “Soybeans lost both harvested acres (600,000) and yield (0.3) to create a 51 million bushel production shortfall.  Both quarterly stocks and ending stocks of corn and soybeans were changed very little.  The biggest news was indeed the world ending stocks numbers.”

 

--Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, Inc., says that the January data has changed the markets psychology to not as negative.
“As a result of the friendly reports, every farmer is going to be happy today,” Roose says. We’re not thinking the market is going to fall as much, compared with what we were thinking 30 days ago.”
Roose added, “This is a world market that we are trading in, vs. 20 years ago. So, we are watching world numbers just as close as domestic numbers.”

 

--Steve Kahler, CEO of Teucrium Trading Co., says that the USDA has sparked more short-covering from funds, as a result of its data.
“Corn stocks from a year ago saw very little change with soybeans and wheat quarterly stocks up 7% and 14% respectively.  The biggest surprise was winter wheat seeded area estimated at 36.6 million acres which was substantially below the average trade estimate,” Kahler says.  
Downward adjustments were made on corn and soybean yields which reduced production in each grain by about 50 million bushels, Kahler says.  
“World grain production remained stable with the exception of South Africa where the crop size was reduced by 33% due to El Nino.  Given the relatively large speculative short in the grain complex, price action has been strong since the release of the USDA statistics,” Kahler says.

 

 

Mike

------

USDA Supply/Demand, Quarterly Stocks and WASDE Crop Prod. at 11:00am CT, Today

 

-----------------

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures settled 5 cents higher at $3.56 3/4. March soybean futures closed 13 1/4 cents higher at $8.74. 
March wheat futures ended 12 1/4 cents higher at $4.81 1/4. March soymeal futures settled $5.70 per short ton higher at $275.60. March soyoil futures closed $0.07 lower at $29.18.  
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $1.30 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 16 higher.

 

Mike

------------

At mid-day:

At mid-day, the March corn futures are trading 7 cents higher at $3.58. March soybean futures are 15 1/2 cents higher at $8.76. 
March wheat futures are trading 13 cents higher at $4.82. March soymeal futures are $5.60 per short ton higher at $275.50. March soyoil futures are trading $0.14 higher at $29.39.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.34 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 22 lower.

 

Mike

--------

At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures are trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $3.51. March soybean futures are unchanged at $8.61. 
March wheat futures are trading 1 3/4 cents lower at $4.67. March soymeal futures are $0.10 per short ton higher at $270.00. March soyoil futures are trading $0.03 higher at $29.28.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.51 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 150 higher.

 

Mike

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17 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

Top 10 Signs You may be a farmer.

10. Anyone who lives within five miles of your house is a “neighbor.”
9. You have a family picture with a tractor in it.
8. You could drive a tractor before you could drive a car.
7. You worked until the job was done or until dark… whichever came first.
6. You buried a dog and cried like a baby.
5. You know it is impossible to tip a cow.
4. You know that Rocky Mountain oysters DO NOT come from the ocean.
3. You loved Sundays because you only had to work half a day.
2. All your baseball hats came from seed, feed, and tractor dealers.

1. You think dung smells like money.

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

In its January Supply/Demand and Crop Production Reports, the USDA upped its U.S. 2015/16 soybean carryout from its November estimate of 465 million bushels to 440 million bushels, above the average trade estimate of 468 million bushels,

 

 

 

Must be using the common core math.......................

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

Patience pays!  too many monkeys on the same side of the boat.  Smiley Happy

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NW IA
Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

Exactly.  Last time I checked 440 is smaller than 465.  Upped? WTH 

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

roarintiger1,

 

Sorry for the typo. I caught it myself too. So, I made the change. Surely there is more to talk about with this friendly report besides a typo?

 

Thanks for your patience.

 

Mike

 

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illinifarmer
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

Let's go people you were wrong again where's the limit up crooks? Nice El Niño by the way
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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

Thanks for the fix Mike!

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booked
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

market eye this line caught my eye, USDA sees the soybean stocks at 2.175 billion bushels, vs. the average trade estimate of 2.72 billion bushels. my math says that is .545 billion less????????????
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40101444105
Contributor

Re: Floor Talk January 12 (Report Day)

However....465 is greater than 500 ------ on a micro wave :-)

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