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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk January 13

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures settled 1 1/4 cents higher at $3.58. March soybean futures finished 5 1/2 cents higher at $8.80. 
March wheat futures closed 3 1/4 cents lower at $4.78. March soymeal futures settled $0.10 per short ton lower at $275.50. March soyoil futures ended $0.36 higher at $29.54.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.05 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 344 lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 1 3/4 cents higher at $3.58. March soybean futures are 2 1/4 cents higher at $8.77. 
March wheat futures are trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $4.81. March soymeal futures are $1.20 per short ton higher at $274.40. March soyoil futures are trading $0.48 higher at $29.66.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.16 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is even, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 82 lower.

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodity Investment Co. grain analyst, says that more short-covering is helping prop up the markets.
“I’m hearing more “short covering” from the grain complex lead by soybeans, which was the most supportive report yesterday. Corn tried to bounce on some short covering as well, but the negative inventory report spilled over and brought corn back down,” Ward says.
He adds, “The bias on the grains is that the report put in a short-term bottom, but without much of a weather threat upside is limited.”
 
Wheat has the most potential for a short cover, because the fund short is record size, he says. “But, it also has the most bearish fundamentals.” Soybeans had the best day yesterday, with lower US carryout and lower World carryout, Ward says.
“But, we are still staring this record crop in the face coming out of South America,” Ward says.
Corn still feels like a follower, but may find some buyers now that the report is out of the way, he says. “We have talked to quite a few end users that were simply waiting to buy until after the report.”
 
Ward adds, "Regarding the record crop in South America, we all think it’s a record except OilWorld which is the lowest at 95 MMT (last year 96.2 MMT). USDA stayed unchanged at 100 MMT. I’m more interested in actual yield reports than FORECASTS for yield. I put it in my commentary this morning that FORECASTING soybean yields is very difficult that we all found out this past year, that I would rather wait for actual yields than believe forecasts. My sources are saying early yield reports disappointing, but we are talking ½ of 1% harvested at this time. More yield reports to come, the market will be watching!!!"

 

Mike

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Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $3.58. March soybean futures are 3 1/4 cents higher at $8.77. 
March wheat futures are trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $4.80. March soymeal futures are $0.30 per short ton higher at $275.90. March soyoil futures are trading $0.46 higher at $29.64.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.83 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 45 higher.

 

Mike

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At 6:10am:

Early calls: Corn 1 cent higher to 1 cent lower, soybeans 2 cents lower to 2 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents lower.

 

Overnight, wheat prices are lower while corn and beans are little changed. 

 

 

Brent Crude Oil = $0.66 higher.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = $0.67 higher.
Dollar =Higher.
Wall Street = Morning futures higher as China worries ease.

World Markets = World outlook is brighter on lightening concerns over China. 

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5 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 13

Hey folks, Marketeye here. My good friend and now counterpart, Tony Dreibus, will kick off the "Floor Talk" thread each day, going forward. You're in good hands. Tony has his finger on the pulse of the overnight markets and what's ahead for the day.

I will chime in at the open and take it from there. So, it's business as usual. Just think, you get two of the greatest minds in the ag market reporting world in one spot; Floor Talk.

 

Enjoy the higher markets.

 

Mike

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 13

Mike I was reading the fcstone storage report this morning...

 

It shows total production of crops and carry at 89% of storage capacity......  

 

Interesting how the ground piles(mostly purchased grain) becomes such a missleading issue...

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 13

sw,

 

It does seem like bushels can be hidden. As the report indicated, farmers are still holding a lot of crops.

And, I'm also watching the funds' short positions. Tony will be writing this week's CFTC COT Report on Friday. It will be interesting to see if the funds sold more short positions this week. As of last Friday, the funds held RECORD short positions when you combined their contracts in corn, soybean, wheat, soymeal and soyoil. Write this down. Their combined short position totals 360,000. WoW!!

 

Mike

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 13

That is reflection of the near record movement in the markets in the last 12 months...

Doesn't that also show an extreme position that is not backed by grain and there fore must be repurchased at some point.

 

Better put isnt that an indication of the oversold positions of the market.

 

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