Floor Talk January 15

[marketeye]

At the close:

The March corn futures settled 1 cent lower at $3.80 per bushel.
March soybean futures finished 18 1/4 cents lower at $9.91.

March wheat futures closed 5 cents lower to $5.32 3/4. The March soybean meal futures ended $8.80 per short ton lower at $326.70. March soyoil futures closed $0.17 higher at $32.99.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $2.01 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 76 points lower.

Mike

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At 11:35am:

NOPA Soybean Crush numbers for December were released Thursday:

December= 165,383 million bushels, below trade's expectations of 166.9 million but higher than November's   161,211 million.

Maybe a little bit of disappointment?

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March corn futures are trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $3.81 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading 13 1/4 cents lower at $9.96.

March wheat futures are trading 6 cents lower to $5.31. The March soybean meal futures are trading $6.50 per short ton lower at $329.00. March soyoil futures are trading $0.20 higher at $33.02.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $1.22 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points lower.

Informa, the private analyst firm, released its latest 2015 U.S. Acreage estimates Thursday:

Corn= 88.6 million

Soybeans= 88.0 million, down from 88.8 million in its previous estimate.

Trade Reaction:

Well, the soybean number is still big. The corn number was a little bit of a surprise, to the high side. Plus, you wonder where about 1.5 million of the 2.0 million acres, that has been talked about, have gone to. We hear that 450,000 acres went to wheat in the Dakotas. But, anyway, the market psychology now has to process a big soybean acreage number and a big South American crop.

Separately, traders are wondering why this soybean market is lower, today, given strong exports. We are trading demand, not acreage yet. So, this market should be higher, says Joe Bedore, FC Stone's CME Group floor trader.

Mike

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At 9:55am:

The soybean market has reversed lower. Corn is slightly higher, soybeans are 9¢ lower, and wheat is 3¢ lower. Helen Pound, Senior Futures Market Specialist at Wedbush Futures, says that beans and wheat are losing premium to corn. "It appears that the pace of Long liquidation continues to be the major grain futures market mover. It will be interesting to see if the sales pace takes a break before Monday’s MLK Holiday," Pound stated in a letter to customers.

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures are trading 4 cents higher at $3.85 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading 6 cents higher at $10.15.

March wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher to $5.41. The March soybean meal futures are trading $0.30 per short ton higher at $335.80. March soyoil futures are trading $0.50 higher at $33.35.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $2.05 higher per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 61 points higher.

Mike

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At 8am:

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 127,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2014/2015 marketing year. 

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

Mike

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At 7:40am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows corn and beans beat expectations:

Wheat=  341,200 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 250,000-450,000 metric tons.

Corn= 844,000 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 550,000-7500,000 metric tons,

Soybeans= 1.335 million mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 700,000-900,000 metric tons.

Soybean meal= 72,100 mt  vs. the trade's expectations of between 20,000-150,000 metric tons.  

Mike

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At 6:20am:

Early calls: Corn 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 4-6 cents higher, and wheat 3-4 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Crude Oil = $1.06 lower per barrel.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street = Lower on concerns of a rising Swiss franc and a drop in Swiss stocks. Plus, more big financial U.S. institutions reporting earnings, today.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[giolucas]

Beans export report is bullish and the price is going down.  What,  people made too much profit yesterday?

[marketeye]

giolucas,

I'm surprised at the lower market myself, considering the strong sales, plus the hot/dry talk in Brazil.

Meanwhile, speaking of profits, it looks like the hedge funds have some work to do. This is not specific to the ag markets, but I'm sure the portfolios are sprinkled with ag commodities:

This note came across my desk, this morning:

"Data from Preqin's forthcoming 2015 Global Hedge Fund Report shows that industry performance was underwhelming in 2014.
The Preqin All-Strategies Hedge Fund benchmark gained just 3.78% in 2014, the lowest annual return since the 1.85% loss seen in 2011. Furthermore, most hedge funds failed to match the returns made in the previous year, and solid advances were frequently followed by losses as managers struggled to gain momentum."

Mike

[roarintiger1]

And........the markets continue to make no sense (cents)...............literally.

[illinifarmer]

Crooked greedy grain traders should all be put in jail. You guys trade corn and soybeans and rice there don't worry about the bond room or the options exchange with their currencies and oil do your own jobs on the grain floor it is at a unrepairable state at these prices what a joke.

[winger667304]

If  the majority of the fundamentals are bullish just relax and wait it out. The market will try and shake crop loose with these sharp down turns and once the selling starts it will keep going until all that is left are the ones that don't have to sell. In my experience as a typical producer, more often than not if I hold until the new year for tax purposes with the intention to sell early in January  the market does not co-operate.