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Veteran Contributor
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Registered: ‎09-09-2014
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Floor Talk January 17

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures finished 7¢ higher at $3.65 1/2, and new crop December 2017 futures finished 6 1/4¢ higher at $3.92 1/2 per bushel. March soybean futures closed 23¢ higher at $10.69 1/4, while November 2017 soybean futures finished 1 1/2¢ higher at $10.20. March wheat futures ended 7 1/2¢ higher at $4.33 1/2. March soy meal futures closed $14.90 short ton higher at $348.80. March soy oil futures closed $0.04 lower at 35.56¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.12 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 107 points lower.

 

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s Senior Market Analyst, says that it is a weather market right now. 
“There were widespread reports of 5 inch rains in central and northern Argentina over the weekend, plus NE Brazil and S Argentina remain dry.  The buying started right away last night and has been building today.  It is holding well,” Scoville says. 
Scoville adds, “We will trade the weather for a while.  March beans have swing targets to $10.86 per bushel right now and November’s contract could run close to $10.40.  Corn prices are going along for the ride, but it can go higher and up to $3.75 or so, then $3.88 longer term.  The threat of losses in Argentina is real and we are putting all that into price,” Scoville says.

 

 

Mike

------------

At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are 6 1/2¢ higher at $3.65, and new crop December 2017 futures are 5 3/4¢ higher at $3.92 per bushel. March soybean futures are 25 3/4¢ higher at $10.72, while November 2017 soybean futures are 7 1/2¢ higher at $10.26. March wheat futures are 8 1/4¢ higher at $4.48. March soy meal futures are $15.90 short ton higher at $349.80. March soy oil futures are $0.01 lower at 35.59¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.31 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 40 points lower at 19,844 points.

 

Mike

------------

At 9am:

In early trading, the March corn futures are 5 1/2¢ higher at $3.64, and new crop December 2017 futures are 5¢ higher at $3.91 1/4 per bushel. March soybean futures are 23 1/4¢ higher at $10.69 1/2, while November 2017 soybean futures are 7¢ higher at $10.25 1/2. March wheat futures are 10 1/2¢ higher at $4.36 1/2. March soy meal futures are $11.90 short ton higher at $345.80. March soy oil futures are $0.12 higher at 35.72¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.89 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 52 points lower at 19,833 points.

 

Mike

------------

Soybeans and corn were higher overnight as excessive rainfall continues to plague fields in Northern Argentina where growers are having a hard time getting their crops in the ground. Beans were up 18 cents and corn gained about 4 cents in overnight trading. The weather in the country hasn't been good, especially in northern growing areas where as little as 60% of crops are planted, well behind the national average of about 90%. That's giving prices a bit of a boost as it may force overseas buyers to look more closely at US supplies.   
 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 0.9% higher.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 1.2% higher.

Dollar = down 0.6%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in pre-bell trading.
World Markets = Global stocks mixed amid volatile comments from Trump. 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,301
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Re: Floor Talk January 17

??????

 

What's going on?  Massive over supplies of grains were just the headlines last month.

 

30 to 45 day carry over supplies aren't enough?

 

But there is a new massive crop every six months...

 

What will a 160 bu corn and a 43bu bean crop here next year work out price wise?

 

Really think we'll have another bin buster year? Might be the year the GBS farmers hit it out of the park again.

 

Might be a little risky forward selling anything but beans.

 

Nothing quite like delivering a short, forward contracted crop into a positive basis market.

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Re: Floor Talk January 17

AM markets: 'bombshell' lifts soy. But hard wheat stalls

Ever found it difficult to rise and shine after a three-day weekend?

That's how Kansas City-traded hard red winter wheat futures, the star of the show in grain markets to end last week, looked in early deals on Tuesday.

After ending the last session at their highest in nearly seven months - boosted by data showing US winter wheat sowings at their lowest since 1909, led by a drop in hard red winter wheat area – Kansas City's spot March contract eased 0.2% to $4.48 ¼ a bushel as of 09:30 UK time (03:30 Chicago time).

While only a small decline, it defied a broader strong start to the week for US grain markets, after a holiday on Monday.

Dollar eases

Weakness in the dollar, amid worries over protectionist rhetoric by US president elect Donald Trump, who has for instance this month attached carmakers that export vehicles from Mexico to the US, offered ag prices a helping hand.

(A weaker dollar improves the affordability of dollar-denominated exports, such as many agricultural commodities.)

The greenback stood 0.7% lower against a basket of currencies, and is now 2.8% down from a January 3 high.

So it wasn't such a surprise that, say, Chicago soft red winter wheat for March managed a 0.1% gain to $4.26 ½ a bushel.

'Negative factor'

Kansas City wheat's underperformance looked a factor of the extent to which speculators had already bought into the contract, ahead of the USDA data, potentially limiting the scope for further purchases.

Regulatory data showed that in the week to last Tuesday, hedge funds hiked their net long in Kansas City wheat futures and options by more than 12,000 lots, the third biggest buying spree on records going back to 2006.

The shift - likely actually reflecting positioning ahead of forecast buying by index funds last week, amid the annual so-called rebalancing process – took the net long to 23,604 contracts, the highest in two years.

"The added length in Kansas City… strikes me as a negative factor" for prices, said Benson Quinn Commodities.

Sure, in Chicago too, hedge funds swung more bullish in positioning, but they retained a substantial net short, of nearly 85,000 contracts.

Discount retracts

Chicago wheat's, relatively, firm performance against its Kansas City peer allowed it to reverse a little of last week's surge in its discount.

March basis, the discount touched a 16-month high of $0.24 a bushel at one point on Friday - up 85% in two sessions.

US weather has been another factor weighing on Kansas City wheat a bit, in bringing rain to the Plains where it is grown, and where dryness and cold has raised alarm bells.

"Warmer temperatures this week will allow ice to melt rapidly thus limiting any losses" among wheat seedlings, MDA said.

'Wetness concerns'

Still, Chicago wheat notably underperformed corn, which gained 0.8% to $3.61 ¼ a bushel for March delivery, helped by the continuation of wetness worries in Argentina.

"Weekend rainfall was slightly above expectations" in the South American country, with some areas receiving more than 4 inches, MDA said.

"Weekend showers have maintained wetness concerns in central Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires."

While drier weather is due this week, a factor which "should ease concerns", MDA flagged a wetter outlook in the six-to-10 day period for far southern crop areas.

'Bombshell'

Other observers were less sanguine on the weather, with Jerry Gidel at Chicago broker Rice Dairy flagging a report from an Argentine contact that a "bombshell fell in the central region of Argentina" over the weekend, in rainfall terms.

In one day, "an average of 150 mm (5.3 inches) fell in the central zone of Argentina and in some specific areas fell more than 350 mm (13.25 inches)," the source was reported at saying.

"There are people evacuated and roads closed. It is very difficult to travel around the area."

'Significant problem'

And the Argentine rains are a big, bigger in fact, issue for the soybean market too, given the country's status as the top exporter of soyoil and soymeal, besides being a big shipper of the oilseed too.

"Excessive moisture in central Argentina remains a significant problem," said Madeleine Donlan at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"The market is worried that cuts to Argentine production will be forthcoming."

This when there appears scope for hedge funds to raise their net long in Chicago soybean futures and options, with the net long at less than half levels seen in June.

"While the funds have been buyers late this week, they probably have some room to add length in soybeans and perhaps soymeal," Benson Quinn Commodities said.

Wasde fallout

There remains too support to prices from the USDA's unexpectedly large downgrade in Thursday's Wasde crop report, of 60m bushels to 420m bushels, in its estimate for US soybean inventories at the close of 2016-17.

The report "was most supportive to the soymeal and soybean market through the drop in US crop size and stocks", said ag advisory group Water Street Solutions.

"Stocks are still ample - but it adds to the importance of the weekly trends of South American weather patterns."

'Funds returned to being buyers'

Soybean futures for March gained 1.7% to $10.73 a bushel, reaching amongst their highest levels of the past six months.

The gain was helped by a 2.3% surge to $341.40 a tonne in soymeal futures for March, actually reaching a six-month high.

"Funds returned to being buyers this past week," Water Street Solutions added.

"If the market can find follow-through buying this week, foremost in soymeal, look for March  soybean futures to first eye the highs from November, then targets of $10.80  a bushel and $11.11 above."

Palm production recovery

Soyoil, the other main soybean processing product, was higher too, adding 1.0% to 35.96 cents a pound for March delivery, albeit failing earlier at an attempt to set camp back above its 50-dfay moving average, at 36.01 cents a pound.

This in turn added support to values of rival vegetable oil palm oil, which gained 1.2% to 3.146 ringgit a tonne in Kuala Lumpur.

The headway came despite a forecast from Ahmad Kushairi, the director general for Malaysian Palm Oil Board, that Malaysian output could rebound by 2.0m tonnes this year to 19.4m tonnes.

"Crude palm oil production we anticipate will improve, an increase of about 12%," he said, if adding that "I think it's a good increment, so as not to affect the price".

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Senior Contributor
Posts: 838
Registered: ‎11-20-2016

Sell Sell Sell!

guess its true that when the experts say to sell, you should hold and vice versa. Just like last year, the

scare tactics have a good portion of the farmers sold out of soybeans already and unable to participate

in the appreciation.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,301
Registered: ‎01-10-2012

SOLD, SOLD , SOLD

A_GR101
Washington, DC    Tue   Jan. 17, 2017   USDA Market News

*CORRECTIONS AT BOTTOM OF REPORT ARE INCLUDED IN CURRENT MARKET YEAR TO DATE*

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND 
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA'S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.  
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.

               GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
                  REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 12, 2017
                            -- METRIC TONS --
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   CURRENT     PREVIOUS  
             ----------- WEEK ENDING ----------  MARKET YEAR  MARKET YEAR
  GRAIN      01/12/2017  01/05/2017  01/14/2016    TO DATE     TO DATE   

BARLEY            871           0         490       29,656       28,380  
CORN          888,009     879,330     581,479   18,827,313   10,636,533  
FLAXSEED          637         122          98       13,594        3,984  
MIXED               0           0           0            0            0  
OATS              699         100           0        9,998        1,100  
RYE                 0           0           0            0            0  
SORGHUM       174,376     192,221      89,055    2,154,611    4,090,811  
SOYBEANS    1,409,466   1,467,653   1,397,253   35,849,221   30,579,085  
SUNFLOWER           0           0           0            0            0  
WHEAT         344,436     263,295     341,042   16,145,920   12,890,469  
Total       2,818,494   2,802,721   2,409,417   73,030,313   58,230,362  
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED;  SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

     SOYBEANS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
       BY PORT AREA AND COUNTRY OF DESTINATION
        REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN 12, 2017
                  -- METRIC TONS --
----------------------------------------------------
N. ATLANTIC   
       INDONESIA      5534       JAPAN           122
       MALAYSIA       1370       THAILAND        220
       VIETNAM         465

S. ATLANTIC   
       CHINA MAIN    57093       CHINA T        2572
       INDONESIA       563       MALAYSIA        490
       PHILIPPINES     294       SPAIN         31977
       THAILAND       2229       TUNISIA       31598

MISSISSIPPI R.
       CHINA MAIN   464194       COLOMBIA       6600
       INDONESIA     51080       JAPAN         38301
       KOREA REP     25299       MEXICO        48226
       NETHERLANDS   69382       PAKISTAN      65999
       THAILAND      69302

COLUMBIA R.   
       CHINA MAIN   135439

PUGET SOUND   
       CHINA MAIN   200825

CALIFORNIA    
       MALAYSIA         24

INTERIOR      
       CHINA MAIN     4921       CHINA T       14277
       INDONESIA     20167       JAPAN           269
       MALAYSIA       3158       MEXICO        44056
       PHILIPPINES     808       THAILAND       7249
       VIETNAM        5363

TOTAL                                        1409466
Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,301
Registered: ‎01-10-2012

Re: SOLD, SOLD , SOLD

Soybeans ate up 16% year over year

 

Corn is the star, up 80%

 

Milo is dragging

 

Look at the wheat we've been told nobody wants... almost as much of it gone as corn...

 

Maybe having all my acres in nw kansas in wheat will work out?

 

 

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,478
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: SOLD, SOLD , SOLD

Nice rally today.  As far as old soybeans are concerned, when the plate was passed today I took a cookie.  Feels good when I can sell beans that I wasn't scared into selling.   Smiley Wink

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Re: Floor Talk January 17

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is surveying farm operators to update information on production practices, resource use, and economic well-being of U.S. farms and farm households. Selected operators received forms in the mail for the survey, called Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), at the end of December.

“ARMS is our primary tool for gauging the financial condition and production practices on U.S. farms and ranches, “said Greg Thessen, Director of the NASS Upper Midwest Regional Office. “It gives farmers a voice in policy making by providing an opportunity to set the record straight about important issues that directly impact the agricultural community. It ensures policies and programs are based on accurate, real-world data that comes directly from the producers.”

NASS conducts ARMS jointly with USDA’s Economic Research Service. In an effort to obtain the most accurate data, these agencies will reach out to nearly 37,000 producers nationwide, including 1,700 in Iowa, between January and March.

“This survey is lengthy and we realize some producers may have questions or need clarification,” explained Thessen. “In February, our interviewers will begin contacting farmers who have not yet responded, to answer any questions they may have and help them complete their report.”

“Decision makers from all facets of U.S.
Agriculture will use the collective information
from ARMS to answer questions and make
important decisions concerning the economic
viability of American agriculture, the rural
economy and
other emerging issues,”
explained Thessen, “That’s why it is imperative for all farmers contacted by NASS to provide responses and help shape the
future of U.S. agriculture. By participating in this survey, Iowa farmers directly impact the decisions that affect them, their families, and their operations.”

In addition to accurate data, NASS is strongly committed to confidentiality. Information provided by respondents is confidential by law. The agency safeguards the confidentiality of all responses, ensuring no individual respondent or operation can be identified.

NASS will publish the economic data gathered in the annual Farm Production Expenditures report on August 3, 2017. All NASS reports are available online at www.nass.usda.gov.

 
 
 
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 947
Registered: ‎10-18-2016
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Re: Floor Talk January 17

Are we hedging or trading?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,599
Registered: ‎07-18-2011

Re: Floor Talk January 17

NASS is strongly committed to confidentiality. Information provided by respondents is confidential by law. The agency safeguards the confidentiality of all responses, ensuring no individual respondent or operation can be identified.

But of course NASS will share every detail of your answers(including your identity and address) with any "non profit" organization with a web site and a political agenda.  

All use of your donated information is intended for the betterment of political agendas, any appearance of concern for anything other than political power is purely coincidental.  Any inference to giving farmers any control of the use of this information is purely fiction.  Any threats made as to the elegibility for funds to be provided by usda in the future for those who do not participate in this survey(witch hunt), were not intended to be made public and therefore may or may not be true.