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Tony_Dreibus
Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk January 17

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures finished 4 3/4¢ higher at $3.53. May futures closed 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.61. March soybean futures ended 3/4¢ higher at $9.68 3/4.  May soybean futures ended 1/2¢  higher at $9.80. March wheat futures closed 5¢ higher at $4.21 1/2. March soy meal futures settled $1.50 per short ton higher at $324.30. January soy oil futures ended 0.28 lower at 32.51¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.18 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 303 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.52. May futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $3.60. March soybean futures are 3¢ lower at $9.65.  May soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ lower at $9.76. March wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $4.20. March soy meal futures are $0.80 per short ton lower at $322.00. January soy oil futures are 0.29 lower at 32.50¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.27 higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 187 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 10:15am:

If you missed it, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Wednesday export sales of

 

130,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.

 

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

 

 

Mike

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In early trading:

At 9:20, the March corn futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.50. May futures are 2¢ higher at $3.58. March soybean futures are 4¢ lower at $9.64.  May soybean futures are 4¢ lower at $9.75. March wheat futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $4.19. March soy meal futures are $1.70 per short ton lower at $321.10. January soy oil futures are 0.17 lower at 32.62¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.09 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 122 points higher.

 

Alan Brugler, President of Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says that though wheat grinding lower to retest lows, but winterkill and dryness are still a story.
“There is a lot of generic wheat in the world, but hi-pro is still in short supply and HRW can sometimes be hi-pro,” Brugler says.
Brugler adds, “Corn stocks in U.S. and China are still tightest in several years, so corn exports should pick up.  Would happen faster if dollar continues to drop and/or smaller SAM crops.”
Regarding the stock market, it climbs a wall of worry, Brugler says.
“As long as everyone still thinks it is too high, it can go up. The number of short sellers is dwindling, however.   I think the main story is anticipating much stronger earnings due to the tax cut, lowering the forward profit earnings,” Brugler says.  

He adds that if 2007 was 1929, this year might be 1937, which was not a good stock market year. 

 

"My basic rule is to follow the 18-week moving average and 40-month moving averages on the S&P.   Those have held breaks since 2009.  As long as that keeps working, assume things continue higher.
Keep in mind that world stock markets are several years behind the US, and to a degree just getting rolling.  They are dependent on a healthy US consumer, though."

 

Mike

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Soybeans and grains were little changed overnight on mixed fundamentals. The USDA reports last week were pretty benign, though slightly bullish for beans and bearish for wheat, and the weather in Argentina is fine. Not great, not terrible, but fine. So we trudge through January looking for direction, as often happens. The dollar yesterday touched a three-year low, which gives overseas buyers more purchasing power, and we all know we could use some positive export sales news. In weather news, it's going to be extremely cold in the south. Temperatures in the Gulf states are in the single digits this morning with wind chills as low as minus-20 in some spots. That, combined with rare snow, has pretty much brought the Gulf Coast to a standstill as the people who live there have no way to handle this type of weather. Check out the details in today's 3 Big Things at https://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-january-17.

 

Brent Crude Oil = down 0.4%.

West Texas Intermediate = down 0.6%.

Dollar = up 0.3%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks mixed overnight.

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1 Reply
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 17

Brugler adds, "Corn stocks in U.S. and China are the still tightest in several years......."    Say what?

 

Uh.........sorry the USDA and the traders say otherwise.   What report is this guy reading?  Seriously......you can't make this stuff up.  Smiley Mad

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