Floor Talk January 19

[marketeye]

Full Story: Separate grains, similar prices.

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Here's the Grain Market Summary video for Thursday. Remember, you can see the grain summary video on agriculture.com's mobile site on your cell phone at m.agriculture.com.

Mike

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At the close:

The March corn futures closed 12 1/2 cents higher at $6.06. The March soybean contract settled 13 1/2 cents higher at $11.97. The March wheat futures closed 5 cents higher at $6.05. The March soymeal futures ended $3.70 per short ton higher at $315.70. The May soyoil futures closed $0.66 higher at $51.06.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.59 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 17 points.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are 6 3/4 cents higher at $6.00 1/4. The March soybean contract is trading 10 1/2 cents higher at $11.94 1/2. The March wheat futures are trading 6 3/4 cents higher at $5.99. The March soymeal futures are trading $2.70 per short ton higher at $314.70. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.53 higher at $50.93.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.59 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 34 points.

One floor trader says, "There really isn't one particular driver of this market. I would say weaker dollar and warmer in South America are two of the main trading factors today," she says.

Yet one analyst says, "Demand has the attention of the market. Demand is coming and has been confirmed over the last couple of days. That is the big news reason to move higher. The market feels real sold out for now as well," he says.  
Weather forecasts have beneficial rains coming to South America this weekend. "That should be mostly negative for beans. But, it looks like the demand and the dollar are more important," he says.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures trade 5 1/4 cents higher at $5.98  3/4. The March soybean contract opened 12 cents higher at $11.95 1/2. The March wheat futures opened 5 cents higher at $5.97 1/4. The March soymeal futures opened $3.10 per short ton higher at $315.10. The May soyoil futures opened $0.30 higher at $58.13.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.73 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 7 points.

Mike

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At 9:20am:

--Informa will release updated 2012 planted acreage estimates tomorrow at 10:30am.

--I'm also hearing that Brazil's corn yields are coming in 21% below a year ago.

Mike

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At 8:41am:

--USDA announces Thursday that Mexico bought 154,700 mt of U.S. corn for 2011-12 delivery.

--USDA says S. Korea bought 110,000 mt of U.S.  corn for 2011-12 delivery.

--Correction: USDA announces Thursday that China bought 120,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13. This was originally reported as 110,000 mt.

Mike

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At 7:30am:

Early calls: Corn 4-6 cents higher, soybeans 8-10 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Traded higher.
Crude Oil=$1.22 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher with stronger-than-expected fourth quarter earnings from Bank of America and Morgan  Stanley. Plus, demand for European bond auctions is improving.

World Markets=Higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[jweiser1925]

Mike,

A very good world wide weather program for Mac computers:

http://getseasonality.com/core/

Jim W

[agmr]

Brazil early soy exports delayed .....Unlike in southern Brazil where drought concerns are still alive and resulted in lower estimates of soybean  crops , farmers in Mato Grosso are concerned about the opposite, too much rain. As a result of wet weather, the harvest of soybeans in Mato Grosso is starting slow.

Sources indicate that  1.2% of the state soybeans were harvested until today, which is only a small improvement over the 0.4% harvested in the previous week.

In fact, the ceremony that marks the beginning of the soybean crop in Mato Grosso had to be canceled on Friday due to heavy rains and the inability of the governor and the Minister of Agriculture to fly to the event which was scheduled to be held in the city Lucas do Rio Verde, during the 2012 edition of the Harvest Show, in central Mato Grosso.

Farmers in the state are not only anxious to soybean harvest before seed quality begins to deteriorate, they are eager to plant winter maize and cotton as well. The first crop to be planted after soybeans are harvested in western Mato Grosso is cotton, and cotton must be planted by the end of January. In central Mato Grosso most crops will now be made with corn and it needs to be planted until the third week of February, so there's plenty of time here.

The relatively slow harvest start in Mato Grosso will probably also result in a delay to the start of Brazil's soy exports. In mid-December, it was estimated that farmers in the state would have collected about a million tons of soybeans by the end of the first week of January, but it did not. Crop estimates for the State are 22.16 million tons of soybeans. As of last Thursday, only about one quarter of a million tons of soybeans were harvested. As a result, there wont  be enough soybeans in the Port of Paranaguá to start the loading of vessels that have already started arriving at port.

The early season soybean export will now depend mainly on rain in Mato Grosso, but we can say that will not start as early as had been predicted.-

[marketeye]

agmr,

Thanks for the update. This is much appreciated. To go further with your too much rain point. I know that Lucas Do Rio Verde is located on highway BR163, the main vein to the port of Paranagua. Too much rain use to make this highway a bear to travel, with potholes the size of small cars (maybe small exaggeration). Will the heavy rains make truck traffic very difficult? It's one thing to hurry the beans through a wet combine. But, delayed trucking can cause spoilage on the way to the port, right? And for those not familiar with this area of Brazil, to get from central Mato Grosso to the port, it's like traveling from Iowa to Louisiana. Agmr, am I wrong to think there could be traffic problems on BR163? Or, have they vastly improved that highway since last year?

Mike

[agmr]

will find out

[agmr]

One of our sources says that this year the BR163 is in better condition than last years due to heavy maintenance

[Mizzou_Tiger]

that a lot of resources were being diverted to getting ready for the 2016 games..........the article specifically referenced resources being pulled away from interior ag roads and ports.

any truth to this???