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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk January 2

On Friday, USDA announced that private exporters reported sales of 210,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Japan during the 2015/2016 marketing year. 

 

The marketing year for corn began Sept. 1.

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At the close:

The March corn futures settled 1 1/4 cents lower at $3.95 3/4 per bushel.
March soybean futures finished 16 cents lower at $10.07.

 

March wheat futures closed 8 1/2 cents lower to $5.81. The March soybean meal futures settled $7.20 per short ton lower at $340.40. March soyoil futures closed $0.05 lower at $32.09.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $0.57 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 25 cents lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March corn futures are trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $3.92 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading 15 3/4 cents lower at $10.07.

 

March wheat futures are trading 14 cents lower to $5.75. The March soybean meal futures are trading $7.30 per short ton lower at $340.30. March soyoil futures are trading $0.09 lower at $32.05.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $0.20 higher per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 cents higher.

 

Mike

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At 10:45am:

Soybeans and wheat are down double-digits, corn is 4 cents lower.

Mike North, President of Commodity Risk Management Group, says there are several things to consider.  "Indeed, exports were above the estimate.  However, the most recent EIA numbers cast a negative light on ethanol grind as ethanol stocks grew for the first time in months by 479,000 barrels to a total of 18.09 barrels.  This is suggestive of tighter ethanol margins and smaller corn grind.  This doesn't play well into the price performance which has struggled of late as investors have lightened holdings of corn at the end of 2014. Soybeans are experiencing the same market pressure as traders lighten their position."

 

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $3.94 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading 5 cents lower at $10.18.

 

March wheat futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower to $5.87. The March soybean meal futures are trading $1.70 per short ton lower at $345.90. March soyoil futures are trading $0.08 higher at $32.22.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $1.69 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 117 cents higher.

 

Mike

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At 7:45am:

For the week ending Dec. 25th, the USDA announced Weekly Export Sales Friday:

 

Corn= 895,100 mt, compared to the trade's expectations of 600,000-800,000.

 

Soybeans= 611,000 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 550,000-750,000 mt.

 

Wheat= 372,100 mt  vs. the trade's ideas of between 200,000-400,000 mt.

 

Soymeal= 159,300 mt, vs. the trade's expectations of between 50,000-150,000 mt.

 

So, based upon these fresh export sales numbers that outperformed trade expectations, the farm markets should have support to start higher, Friday. What do you think?

 

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

 

Early calls: Overnight markets were closed.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mixed.
Crude Oil = $1.76 lower per barrel.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street =Higher with U.S. economic data to trade.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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12 Replies
Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 2

Grains down

 

Selling pressure form everyone waiting till the calender flipped. 

 

 

Brazil and Maryland are going to over achieve again.

 

Moisture on the way for the hrw belt.

 

The price of food will not be high because of grain prices.

 

Have cheerios gone down?

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FARM4FOOD
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk January 2

Seems to be some really big export # compared to the streets guess. So is the selling just profit takeing? Looks to me grains are on sale again

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 2

FARM4FOOD,

 

I put your concern to a floor trader in Chicago. Matt Connelly, Futures International, LLC, says the bears have a grip on things.

"First I think export sales were ok, not great.  Second, big move in $ to the upside and consequently  euro to the downside not helping.   Third, even though it feels like Monday, it's Friday and the end of a pretty ugly week. Technically Corn and Beans are working on a weekly outside lower close, very bearish.  Light volume but seems like funds have been selling out of longs since Monday.  Also, we are entering the final stages(4-6 weeks) of SA weather and so far looks ideal.  Look at chart of corn and beans in early July of last year, straight down for several weeks in a row," Connelly says.

 

Mike       

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 2

I would think that it is pretty normal to have a smaller ethanol grind over the holidays.......Let's see where these numbers go druing the month of January.   Corn is still on sale and everyone thinks that farmer's bins are full with plenty of supply.  Sourcing corn should not be a problem for quite some time.

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Pat in CMO
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk January 2

I would think that export numbers that are double the high end of the trade expectations would be considered more than just "OK". Seems to me there has to be more to the story.  Patrick

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jrsiajdranch
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 2

Durn greenback!
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Shaggy98
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 2

Could be worse, you could have a Brownback!!!  Smiley Surprised

 

Only a few select few will probably get that.  It ties right into another thread.

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Farmerjoe79
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk January 2

When Vr went long I shorted this thing it looks like oil is going to take everything down with it. I would hate to see what he has lost this year.
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Farmerjoe79
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk January 2

If he was smart he would just save what he has left and quit trading.
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