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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk January 29

At the close:

The March corn futures closed 1/4 of a cent lower at $3.73 per bushel.
March soybean futures finished 2 cents lower at $9.68.

 

March wheat futures finished 2 1/2 cents higher to $5.07. The March soybean meal futures settled $0.50 per short ton higher at $337.90. March soyoil futures closed $0.80 lower at $29.54.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $0.07 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 162 points higher.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The March corn futures are trading 3 1/2 cents lower at $3.69 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $9.70.

 

March wheat futures are trading 5 cents higher to $5.10. The March soybean meal futures are trading $2.00 per short ton higher at $339.40. March soyoil futures are trading $0.67 lower at $29.67.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $0.54 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 63 points higher.

 

Dustin Johnson, EHedger LLC grain analyst, says the farm markets have a steep hill to climb.

"I think this has a lot to do with the market setup. Both hedge funds and growers are long corn. Funds are net long using futures and options, growers are long with a record amount of unsold bushels in the bin.  This can naturally put a heavy ceiling in the market since there is only so much money that can be invested and only so long before those bushels need to be sold to raise revenue for 2015 expenses.  We have started to trend toward the 100 day and finally settled below it yesterday which is likely causing some technical selling from the funds.  We also have Ukrainian corn offered at a discount to US corn.  At the end of the day, we still have nearly 1.9 billion bushels of corn projected as a carryout by the USDA.  It will be hard to turn that into a bullish story without a weather issue, even if we see 3-4 million acres switched to soybeans in the upcoming acreage report," Johnson says.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The March corn futures are trading 2 1/2 cents lower at $3.71 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading 5 1/2 cents higher at $9.75.

 

March wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher to $5.06. The March soybean meal futures are trading $1.30 per short ton higher at $338.80. March soyoil futures are trading $0.32 lower at $30.02.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $0.41 higher per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 41 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 7:45am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday:

Most sales were either at the high end of estimates or beat them.

 

Wheat=  565,400 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 250,000-650,000 metric tons.

Corn= 1.084 million mt vs. the trade's expectations of 800,000-1,600,000 metric tons,

Soybeans= 909,000 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 200,000-600,000 metric tons.

Soybean meal= 297,500 mt  vs. the trade's expectations of between 100,000-350,000 metric tons.  

 

Mike

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At 7:15am:

 

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 3-5 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.10 higher per barrel.
Dollar =Lower
Wall Street = Higher, after Fed released its meeting minutes.

World Markets = Europe stocks were lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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2 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 29

I guess, unlike the song, it's not all about the bass.   It's all about the demand.  Smiley Wink

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 29

Bean buyer called 2 days ago wanting beans

I am still bearish beans because of what appears to be some large bean acres this year, but IMO USDA has overshot their 2014 crop numbers for NA and it appears that even though SA will have a good crop it's not great anymore and when you look at the political landscape and their infrastructure issues they are only going to put so many bushels out there so NA will still be open for business. What if our carryout is only 285 something and demand is understated to boot. Just feels like beans may have a short term demand pop that will ensure we plant enough to keep up. So the real question is corn. I'm getting more bearish corn even though I know we are a 2010 or 2011 season away from tighter stocks getting tighter
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