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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, January 3, 2020

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures finished 5¢ lower at $3.86 1/4. May corn futures settled 5¢ lower at $3.93.

March soybean futures settled 14 3/4¢ lower at $9.41. May soybean futures settled 14 1/4¢ lower at $9.55 1/2.

March wheat futures closed 5 1/2¢ lower at $5.54 1/4.



March soymeal futures ended $4.40 per short ton lower at $301.20.

 March soy oil futures closed 0.16 cents lower at 35.08¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.00 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 216 points lower.

Mike

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At 12-Noon:

Jack's weighing in.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the sell-off in the soybean market is not as bad as anticipated.

“The action has not been too bad considering the news. Some selling initially in response to the U.S. killing the Iranian general, but things have turned sideways since then and might rally back into the close. Not much else going on in terms of what people are talking about, but the market does not seem to be too concerned, at least the grains don’t. A correction was needed anyway and this is a bad way to get one, but we got one,” Scoville says.

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the March corn futures are 3 1/2¢ lower at $3.88. May corn futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $3.94 1/4.

March soybean futures are 15 1/4¢ lower at $9.41. May soybean futures are 14 3/4¢ lower at $9.54 1/2.

March wheat futures are 5 1/2¢ lower at $5.54 1/4.



March soymeal futures are $4.10 per short ton lower at $301.50.

 March soy oil futures are 0.36 cents lower at 34.88¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.35 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 160 points lower.

Darin Fessler, Lakefront Futures and Options says that the USDA’s Chief Economist announcing that changes to the soybean acreage and yield to be made next month has underpinned soybean prices.

“The Iran news is some of it, but the soybean market also was running into resistance on March between $9.50-$9.60 & Nov $9.70-$9.80 & it has run a bit ahead of a major report. There is possible profit taking, because of outside uncertainty," Fessler says.

Disappointed export sales for pork, as China canceled a fair bit, is probably having spillover impact on beans, Fessler says.

Fessler added, “The corn market doesn’t have much of a story right now. It is more or less following what wheat does. Beans and wheat only grain markets currently with a story in our opinion,” Fessler says.

 

Mike

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At 9:06am:

 

In early trading, the March corn futures are 2¢ lower at $3.89 3/4. May corn futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.95.

March soybean futures are 7 1/4¢ lower at $9.49. May soybean futures are 7¢ lower at $9.62 1/2.

March wheat futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $5.55 1/4.



March soymeal futures are $3.40 per short ton lower at $302.20.

 March soy oil futures are 0.08 cents lower at 35.16¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.06 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 182 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the markets are reacting to tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

“Crude oil is taking a significant jump higher along with metal prices. U.S. grain and stock prices are taking a hit. Expect grain prices to remain somewhat supported today. We still seem to have a favorable environment to own U.S. grains, ” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Kluis added, “Corn and soybean prices will stay pretty well supported until we get the release of the crop production report next Friday (January 10).”

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Friday shows weak demand figures.

Corn= 540,000 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000-775,000 mmt.

Soybeans= 332,000 metric tons vs. trade’s expectations of 350,000-1,000,000 mmt.

Wheat= 333,300 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 250,000-600,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 96,200 mt. the trade’s expectations of 75,000-250,000mt.

 

What say you?

 

Mike

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8 Replies
samalan1140
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, January 3, 2020

Oh wow shocking you idiots are finding a reason to knock down prices

k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 3, 2020

Interesting  numbers  GEESSTAMUNTS   -    75  - 250,     250  -  600 ,    350 -  1,000  ,   300  -  775    -  very  comforting when  placing  your  bet  - maybe ?    

roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 3, 2020

The trade expectations of exports with ranges like that are meaningless.  Anyone can throw a dart.  

 

Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 3, 2020

Most of those dart throwers are having a hard time even hitting the same wall the dart board is hanging in the middle of...

Spoiler
 
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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 3, 2020

"A correction was needed"?

 

As usual he has it just bassackwards.

 

We were working on a correction, still had a ways to go. Now it's a little bit further.

 

People really pay money to these duffuses?

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gurly3801539
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 3, 2020

"A correction was needed anyway..."   Why?  Big money on the wrong side of the board?

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 3, 2020

The dufusses follow usda and usda will never be optomistic on price.  But they definitely want a job description that says "Price Establishment Office" because it means job security for the 25000 employees it will take to put out a monthly price correction........it will be user friendly and look very much like the one they put out now.

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 3, 2020

On second thought, I'd like that job myself.  It would be a great feeling -- to think that I had that feeling that my dad had. The one that knew his sales and his acres had some affect on the market without the corruption of betting by funds that monopolize for profit.  And the knowledge that Hank Kimble was not going to stick his neck out to risk putting his name on a monthly almanac on commodity production.

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