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Tony_Dreibus
Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk January 4

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures finished 4¢ higher at $3.59 3/4, and new crop December 2017 futures finished 3 1/4¢ higher at $3.86 3/4 per bushel. March soybean futures finished 20 1/4¢ higher at $10.15 1/4, while November 2017 soybean futures closed 15 1/2¢ higher at $9.98 3/4. March wheat futures finished 12¢ higher at $4.18 1/2. March soy meal futures finished $7.00 short ton higher at $319.10. March soy oil futures closed $0.40 higher at 35.21¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.84 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 57 points higher at 19,939 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are 3¢ higher at $3.58 3/4, and new crop December 2017 futures are 2¢ higher at $3.85 per bushel. March soybean futures are 15 1/4¢ higher at $10.10, while November 2017 soybean futures are 12 1/4¢ higher at $9.95. March wheat futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $4.10 3/4. March soy meal futures are $4.80 short ton higher at $316.90. March soy oil futures are $0.53 higher at 35.34¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.82 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 47 points higher at 19,929 points.

 

Jack Scoville, Price Futures Group vice-president, says that First, the US Dollar is sharply lower and looking like a top is possible.  That is lifting all commodities to some extent today.  Then, there is the SA weather with floods in Santa Fe and Buenos Aires provinces in Argentina and the dry weather in northern Brazil.  There are pictures of the flooding starting to circulate.  That could mean much less from both countries, both corn and soybeans.  Good price action today and it looks like a good close is coming."

 

 

 

Mike

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At 9:50am:

What do you think? Marketwatchers say the soybean-to-corn price ratio is narrowing. It hit as wide as 2.70 (on new-crop contracts). Currently it’s trading near 2.56. If the market wants to buy more corn acres it will fall to around 2.30, analysts say.

 

Do you see the corn market rallying to buy acres? I've also heard from farm managers and landowners that the pressure is on from cash rent farmers to go to more soybeans.

 

Mike

-------

At 9:05am:

In early trading, the March corn futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.58, and new crop December 2017 futures are 2¢ higher at $3.85 per bushel. March soybean futures are 5 3/4¢ higher at $10.00, while November 2017 soybean futures are 5¢ higher at $9.88. March wheat futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $4.08. March soy meal futures are $1.70 short ton higher at $313.80. March soy oil futures are $0.17 higher at 34.98¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.03 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 35 points higher at 19,917 points.

 

 

Mike

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Good morning from a (relatively) brisk central Texas where temperatures are well below freezing, a rarity in this part of the country. I have to say, I don't miss the harsh Midwest winters -- I remember standing on the tarmac at the airport in Sioux City working on the F16s at the guard base there and not being able to feel my fingers since we couldn't use gloves for certain jobs. No thanks and never again! Anyway, grains and beans were little changed overnight. Corn was unchanged and beans were down 1/2 cent. Chicago wheat was up about a penny and KC wheat was down about a penny. Looks like another round of winter weather in the Midwest. It's also supposed to get extremely cold with wind chills of minus-10 in the southern Plains, but the good news is hard-red winter fields could see significant snow accumulate later this week. 

 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 0.7% higher.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.7% higher.

Dollar = down 0.2%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in overnight trading.
World Markets = Global stocks lower. 

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9 Replies
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 4

What do you think? Marketwatchers say the soybean-to-corn price ratio is narrowing. It hit as wide as 2.70 (on new-crop contracts). Currently it’s trading near 2.56. If the market wants to buy more corn acres it will fall to around 2.30, analysts say.    It was going to happen sooner or later.  The ratio was too big.  The strength in the Bean market has been holding the ratio in place.  The new crop bean price is the most suprising to me.  

 

Do you see the corn market rallying to buy acres?    Maybe it is rallying to buy "seed".  Acres would be another 75 cents up....

 

I've also heard from farm managers and landowners that the pressure is on from cash rent farmers to go to more soybeans.    They have no choice so far.  Survival can be locked in with beans  not in corn,... Especially if you believe that we can average 53 b/a.... ...... Corn---.. If we need 14 billion bushels of corn we are going to have to get the fringe back into the equation.  Right now areas with -40+ basis are going to see lots of acre reduction ........... no choice.....

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 4

Mike,   Wheat is the most undervalued commodity and primed for a run.  Basis is terrible out in production country, so the net reward for planting is very dismal.  acres were lost last year to price and raised a nice milo crop,  In the southern plains a lot of acres will disappear by spring that were planted.  We have carryover bushels in storage but quality is poor.

No matter what the price does.  If the summer weather predictions stay dry we will loose a lot of the high elevation acres and it will not be back into wheat production in 2018.  Economics won't allow the acres to sit that long.  At these prices milo/fallow or continuous feed/milo etc.... will get you a lower net loss.

 

I look for wheat to be a leader

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 4

sw, I hope it starts soon!    Smiley Wink

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 4

It is hard to find bright spots but we are in a position similar to voters in the midwest..... The results might be just as shocking...

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 4

Yes........It could be Huuuuuuuuuuuuuge.......................

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 4

No easily grown profitable crop goes unnoticed.in the world today. Brazil is still adding three to five million new never ever farmed before acres every year. Most are devoted to soybeans. In just another year or two beans can be added to wheat as a we have more than we can ever use commodity. 

 

The price will come DOWN, corn doesn't have to come up.

 

In the "I states" corn will still be king, it just is what happens in April and the beginning of May.

 

Visited with a farmer in the Miss river delta just west of Memphis, Tenn last week. Has been shedding acres the last few years.

Said the last two years he has been all beans, going all cotton this year. 1800 acre switch, said no money in beans. He has a way more better basis down there than we have here in South Podunk Country.

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elcheapo
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 4

mr. scoville....there is a #3......did you note price action in wheat ???

don't think it was the dollar, nor flooding in SA.........

you might consider reading:

www.agrimoney.com/marketreport/pm-markets-wheat-futures-rally-on-kansas-crop-damage--3913.html

 

too bad i have to go oversea's to find out the news here....

 

 

perhaps it tells us that our media doesn't know what news is........oh that's right.....we call it a "story"

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 4

Hobby,   one of the young bosses, Mr. T, around here said this afternoon ------ Next week is a report that might start reflecting the acre shift coming this summer.  Seed may get tight and We better start looking for ways to lock in a little new crop in this over 10 region..

 

Just after I spent an hour discussing the wreck that is the corn basis market and the pricing issue for new crop corn with one of our delivery point feeders.  Where he mentioned that a couple of larger producers in the area had noted soybean seed betting harder to source.

Other subjects in that discussion,,,.. A basis in the Okla panhandle equal to mid Iowa and how a -40 basis in Guymon Okla. was a first for the buyer memory.....He's near 80 and represents one of the oldest Cattle feeding enterprises in the SW.

 

Question for him.......The effect of ethanol on that basis...   He said maybe.... But for sure ethanol is contributing to the pressure on wheat.  "DDG's are proving desireable in rations even when they are more expensive than the ingredients replaced..   We're feeding 20% rate in the ration ...... But DDG's have driven wheat out of the cattle ration....... we used to pay up for some wheat when cheaply available like now for the protein.......not now even though there is good wheat around.."

One other subject......... volatility.......  "is driving the smaller(less than 5M investor) out of the cattle feeding business...... you can't make enough in the good swings to protect yourself in the down swings..... we think it is a common problem all through agriculture....we have seen months cattle feeders were loosing 500 per head......It takes a lot of time and risk to make that back up....but it is not just us..... grain guys and grain elevators are getting sick of it as well...Hard to be big enough to ride it.......".

 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 4

Hobby I can spell ----it is getting not betting...... I am not going to correct the software problems at SF.

 

 

And yes I am proud of our younger leadership....  Right or wrong the thinker is working in a timely fassion.

 

By the way beans are 4 cents up from what is reported on this thread as the close--  +19......... before the opening this evening....

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