Floor Talk January 5

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures settled 1 1/2 cents higher at $3.53. January soybean futures finished 1 1/4 cents higher at $8.57. 
March wheat futures ended 3 cents higher at $4.61. January soymeal futures closed $1.90 per short ton higher at $266.30. Jan. soyoil futures closed $0.31 lower at $29.81.  
In the outside markets, the Crude oil market is $0.75 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 2 1/4 cents higher at $3.53. January soybean futures are trading 3 1/2 cents higher at $8.59. 
March wheat futures are trading 3 1/2 cents higher at $4.61. January soymeal futures are $2.40 per short ton higher at $266.80. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.30 lower at $29.82.  
In the outside markets, the Crude oil market is $0.59 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 54 points lower.

Jason Ward, Northstar Commodities senior grain analyst, says short-covering is propping up today's trade. He lso has thoughts on next week's USDA Report.

"Next week’s report will be bearish, all in the trade expect that. it’s why they are short record amounts. The wheat short is a RECORD, the corn is approaching if not has reached the peak short in June of 2015 of over 150,000 short. just a little reminder of that big short in June, we finally had a weather catalyst that sparked the short covering and in 1 month’s time funds went from short 150,000 corn to long 225,000 corn, a swing of 1.8 billion bushels from short to long and it created a 92-cent rally in corn 20 trading days (June 15th-July 14, 2015).
 
Now, we DO NOT have a weather catalyst at this time to spark that fund short covering, so on any given day you can get some traders to take profits on said shorts and give you a  little bounce in price, but it’s a meaningless bounce today.
 
The fundamentals are still bearish, the trade hope is another bearish report from USDA on Tuesday that sticks a low in the market, meaning we will see the LARGEST yield and LARGEST ending stocks number we will get, then a low in price, and some buying could occur.
 
The outside financial markets have now become a concern beginning the new year, which will put more pressure on energy, which in turn will be a weight on grains.
 
The size of the fund short is worth noting, but we lack the catalyst to see the short cover.
 
Mike, could this be the USDA report next week that SURPRISES everyone where the yield actually declines, not increases, I haven’t seen any decrease estimates, so we definitely have EVERYONE leaning one way going into next week. Can’t wait to see the numbers. !!!"

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures are trading 2 cents higher at $3.54. January soybean futures are trading 6 cents higher at $8.62. 
March wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher at $4.61. January soymeal futures are $3.40 per short ton higher at $267.80. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.01 higher at $30.13.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.03 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points higher.

Mike

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At 7:45am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 4-6 cents higher and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.11 lower.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen lower with oil eyed.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

How do you feel about next week's USDA Report? Here's one perspective from the trade:

Dustin Johnson, EHedger LLC, grain analyst, says that he is not sure why markets are higher other than the fact that they hit a new contract low yesterday and equities rebounded from their substantial drop after the grains had already closed. This may have prompted some traders to try to bottom pick the market overnight, looking for the typical Tuesday rebound. The report is also one week away and those that have been looking to re-own sold grain may be doing so with futures and call options which could also be causing some of these one day rallies.

Long term, however, we are still in a major bear market. The US is no longer the low cost producer and we continue to lose export market share. The question we have been asking from harvest is "what price is it going to take to reduce N. American row crop acres" and we don't think that is here even if it is below break-even for many producers.

I still want to talk about our official numbers for next week's report with my colleagues. However, I will say we are going to be closer to 600 million  bushels expected for bean carryout. Crush missed last month and we expect declining crush margins and meal imports to slow crush enough to raise carryout. This is on top of the 80 million bushels that we have reduced from the current export estimate.

Mike

[elcheapo]

i believe that perhaps the fellow that was quoted wheat is RECORD short.....maybe i didn't read things right, but

from what i read, i believe it was perhaps another commodity, not wheat, and not at a record level....if i read the cftc stuff

right.....i think wheat might actually be the opposite....maybe i'm wrong.