cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk January 6

Shameless Plug Warning: Successful Farming has a new agmobile app. Honestly, it really is a good one. I particularly like the ease of finding the markets. Plus, you can get local cash prices on the app. I invite you to check it out.

For more about it and how to get it, Dave Kurns, our Content Editor, has laid out the steps:

 

Successful Farming AgMobile App

 

----------------------

At the close:

The March corn futures settled 1 cent lower at $4.05 per bushel.
March soybean futures finished 10 1/2 cents higher at $10.55 3/4.

 

March wheat futures closed 2 3/4 cents higher to $5.91 3/4. The March soybean meal futures ended $1.10 per short ton higher at $355.10. March soyoil futures settled unchanged at $32.87.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $2.42 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 125 points lower.

 

More January Pre-USDA Report Estimates were released Tuesday by Allendale, Inc.:

 

Corn - Lowered planted acres by 223,000 (90.662 mil) and harvested by 436,000 (82.661 mil). Yield is increased to 173.87. Implied Q1 usage from the Grain Stocks report, Sep - Nov, is seen at a record 4.500 billion.
 
Soybeans - Planted acres have been lowered by 110,000 acres (84.074 mil) and harvested by 192,000 (83.211 mil). Yield is seen at 48.04. Implied Q1 usage of 1.470 billion would be a record.

Wheat - Winter wheat plantings will increase by 156,000 acres. No spring wheat numbers will be reported.

 

What do you think? Harvested acreage for corn not dropped enough? Maybe too few soybean harvested acres?
 

 

Mike

----------

At mid-session:

The March corn futures are trading 3/4 of a cent lower at $4.05 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading 4 1/4 cents higher at $10.49.

 

March wheat futures are trading 10 cents higher to $5.99. The March soybean meal futures are trading $0.20 per short ton lower at $353.80. March soyoil futures are trading $0.01 higher at $32.88.

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $2.00 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 180 points lower.

Jacob Burks, WedBush Commodities analyst, says that all grain markets are focused on Monday’s government report. 
“The first quarter stocks number can be huge, along with the normal monthly supply report.  From the technical side corn looks bullish,” Burks says.
 
There is a lot of mixed news in the wheat, Burks says.  “Winter Kill is the biggest talk.  Cold temps with scattered snow cover.  Exports this week were below expectations.”
 
Beans are still in weather market mode, Burks says.  “However, it is still believed that South American production seems to be looking good.”

 

Mike

---------

At 10:45am:

Informa, the private analyst firm, released its 2014 estimates ahead of the January 12 USDA Report:

 

Final 2014 Production and Yield Estimates:

 

Corn= 14.425 billion bushels and an average yield of 172.7 busheles per acre

 

Soybeans= 3.969 billion and an average national yield of 47.6 bushels per acre

 

What do you think? Too high, too low, or about right? Personally, maybe a little high on the corn, but the beans seems as expected.

 

One Trader Reaction:

"That seems to be the reaction.  I really have no problem with these numbers.  I am not a big believer in the less acreage story.  It all looked pretty planted up to me when I took my drives around.  So I am ok with these estimates personally.  But, the corn is acting more bearish than the beans to the news so that seems to be the reaction."

 

Mike

-----------

At the open:

 

The March corn futures are trading 2 cents higher at $4.08 per bushel.
March soybean futures are trading 6 cents higher at $10.51.

 

 

 

March wheat futures are trading 6 cents higher to $5.95. The March soybean meal futures are trading $0.60 per short ton higher at $354.60. March soyoil futures are trading $0.07 higher at $32.94.

 

 

 

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $1.26 lower per barrel, the U.S. Dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 34 points higher.

 

Mike

------------

At 8:15am:

--On Tuesday, the private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 243,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2015/2016 marketing year. 

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

 

--Also, my friends at the Brazilian newspaper, Gazeta do Povo, write that the soybean harvest is going well. "In Cascavel region, farmers were hoping for 60-160 bags per bushel. As a conversion, 60 bags=53.53 bushels per acre.

The fields being harvested near Lake Itaipu, where crops were planted in mid-September, are seeing yields come in as expected or higher. "It is the region where the sample has an average 70-110 bags per bushel", compare, and which corresponds to 2% of the area planted in Cascavel region.

The condition of crops is considered good and, so far, required controlled application of pesticides. "Meanwhile, the big unknown in relation to soybean yield lies on the state of the North, which had delayed planting due to dry October and had eaten part to replant crops."

 

Mike

------------

At 7:30am:

 

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 5-7 cents higher, and wheat  7-8 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Crude Oil = $1.10 lower per barrel.
Dollar = Higher
Wall Street =Slightly Higher on oil price trend and European market pressure.

World Markets = Europe stocks were mixed, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

0 Kudos
10 Replies
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 6

If you missed it, here's the update from yesterday's delayed CFTC Report.

On Monday, the CFTC released its delayed report from last Friday. It showed small net sales for managed money funds for corn, beans, and the wheats on the week ending last Tuesday. Soymeal added 4,000 and oil 15,000 contracts.
Producers and merchants were also mostly on the negative side,with corn down 9,400 and beans down 1,700 net.
In the “others” traders column, there were contracts 18,000 corn contracts added and 16,000 for beans.

 

Mike

 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 6

Thanks Mike,

 

still trying to wrap my head around the Q1 bean usage....1.47 bil - wow!

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 6

How do they calculated "implied" usage? More specifically how did Allendale get to 1.470 billion bushel soybean usage?

 

PS: Where are you seeing this from Allendale?  I can't seem to find anything recent from them on the subject.

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 6

yep Cx-1   I can't believe that did not garner a little more comment.

 

Anxious to watch the overnites.........

 

4.5 billion implied corn usage for the first quarter projects 18 billion of usage for the year on a 14 billion crop?????????

 

Hopefully I will get schooled on this but IMO it implies one of two senarios

 

!.  There was a negative carry from 2013.... In reality

or

2.  There will be price increases to trim usage......... soon.

 

Any other thoughts?

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 6

Beans a very similar statement

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 6

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 6

sw,

 

yeah, we have exports + crush -- I know they are blazing, but....was thinking 1.1-1.2 on bean use....either we had a neg carryin (-300) instead of the 'marketed' +92 or ??? I don't know but something is {Hiding}, LIKE production (ac or yield?) - i did see someone else quote Bloomberg: Corn Q1 use = 11.138, Beans = 2.599....... 

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 6

wet thumbs up 

 

Hobby

0 Kudos
Highlighted
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk January 6

Hobby--that video is hilarious.
0 Kudos