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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk January 6

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures settled 1/4 of a cent higher at $3.53 1/4. March soybean futures finished 7 1/2 cents higher at $8.64. 
March wheat futures closed 1 1/2 cents higher at $4.62. January soymeal futures finished $2.40 per short ton higher at $268.70. Jan. soyoil futures closed $0.03 lower at $29.78.  
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $1.93 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 314 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 11:45am:

Informa World Crop Estimates:
Argentina corn= 22.0 million metric tons
Brazil Safrihna corn= 10.0 mmt  

Argentina wheat= 11.5 mmt.
India wheat 85.0 mmt,

Brazil soybeans= 101.4 mmt
Argentina soybeans= 58.5 mmt

A floor trader tells me: "Nothing shocking but slightly smaller than USDA numbers. Could be slightly supportive if the Jan report confirms the small pullbacks.

Bigger issue is freeze potential over domestic SRW regions, issues with Indian rainfall shortfall and continued talk of La Nina. Those are the mild fundamental impacts today. Bigger issue is the massive short in wheat, strong demand for US beans off the PNW from China and a dramatically oversold marketplace as a whole."

 

Meanwhile, Allendale has released its pre-report estimates. This release was pushed out Wednesday:

"Corn - Based on the Farm Service Agency crop insurance numbers we see lower planted acres at 88.223 million (-158,000) and lower harvested of 80.521 (-143,000). First quarter usage, Sep - Nov, is seen at 4.257 billion, a record for that quarter. Good Q1 usage, and a revised production, will not offset poor export sales however.
 
Soybeans - Based on the FSA crop insurance data, we see lower planted acres at 83.019 million (-186,000) and lower harvested at 82.263 (-166,000). Implied Q1 at 1.471 billion would be 2% under last year.
 
Wheat - Slow winter wheat plantings lowered acres by 566,000 acres versus last year."


What do you think of the numbers?

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the March corn futures are trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $3.53. March soybean futures are trading 3 1/4 cents higher at $8.60. 
March wheat futures are trading 3 1/4 cents higher at $4.64. January soymeal futures are $2.70 per short ton higher at $269.00. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.24 lower at $29.57.  
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Crude oil market is $1.50 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 206 points lower.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group Senior Market Analyst, says that the market is oversold and is using that fact to go up.
“We have thrown everything but the kitchen sink, in terms of bearish news, at the market and I think we are running out of reasons to push it into more of a black whole.  There is some new buying. But, mostly I think some short-covering.  We are near a lot of downside objectives for a lot of traders, and they are pulling out and might not do too much until the annual reports next week,” Scoville says. 
He adds, “Plus, with all the crap going on around the world today, I think people are pulling out.  My commercials kind of quiet so far, but who knows if the market keeps working higher.”

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the March corn futures are trading 1 cent lower at $3.51. March soybean futures are trading 3 1/4 cents lower at $8.54. 
March wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher at $4.57. January soymeal futures are $1.10 per short ton lower at $262.40. Jan. soyoil futures are trading $0.16 lower at $29.47.  
In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.52 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 182 lower.

 

Mike

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