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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, January 7, 2020

At the close:

At the close, the March corn futures finished 1/4¢ lower at $3.84 1/4. May corn futures ended unchanged at $3.91.

March soybean futures closed 3/4¢ lower at $9.44. May soybean futures closed 1¢ lower at $9.57 1/4.

March wheat futures ended 1/4¢ higher at $5.50 1/4.



March soymeal futures closed $1.60 per short ton lower at $301.30.

 March soy oil futures finished 0.22 cents higher at 34.74¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.60 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 109 points lower.

Mike

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At 11:06am:

Note: Problems are brewing in South America. My South America contact sent this message, this morning:

"It's the worst drought in Rio Grande do Sul since 2012. Remember, it was because of this drought that I first contacted you. Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, in the state of Mato Grosso, the soybean harvest has already started. All the while, there is a frost alert for the entire country," he says.

 

Mike

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.At midsession:

At midsession, the March corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.84 1/4. May corn futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.91.

March soybean futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $9.38 1/2. May soybean futures are 6¢ lower at $9.51 1/4.

March wheat futures are 3¢ lower at $5.47.



March soymeal futures are $2.50 per short ton lower at $300.40.

 March soy oil futures are 0.12 cents higher at 34.64¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.69 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 101 points lower.

Greg Lumsden, Cargill MarketGuide, says that there’s not much going on with trade today, as markets still feel like they are in holiday mode.

“The markets were weaker, over the last few days, with concerns over Middle East tensions and improved weather in South America. Some market participants are also pointing to China’s reluctance to increase annual import quotas on corn/wheat/rice as providing more headwinds to $40 billion in ag purchases,” Lumsden says.

Lumsden added, “Over the next few days, it feels like the market will bide it’s time waiting for USDA numbers on Friday and additional details of a phase one signing. If we do see specifics on quotas per commodity, the market will take this as a positive to build expectations off of. If the targets remain high level with little detail, we will see disappointment in the grain markets. The report Friday is historically a market mover but the funds appear to be comfortable with a sizable short position. We could see some fireworks with a surprise on the report or more positive tones on trade.”

 

Mike

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At 8:55am:

In early trading, the March corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.84 1/4. May corn futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.91.

March soybean futures are 3 1/4¢ higher at $9.44 1/2. May soybean futures are 3¢ higher at $9.58 1/4.

March wheat futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $5.46 1/4.



March soymeal futures are $1.30 per short ton lower at $301.60.

 March soy oil futures are 0.04 cents higher at 34.56¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.71 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 101 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are now eyeing this Friday’s USDA reports.

“The CFTC report released yesterday showed funds holding a major short in corn heading into Friday’s USDA reports, ” Kluis stated in a daily note to customers.

Kluis added, “The USDA overestimated corn demand by 391 million bushels, and soybean demand by 125 million bushels last year in the final crop production report in February (remember the January 2019 US government shutdown). With the “phase 1” trade agreement being signed next week, I doubt if they will make that same error in 2020.”

 

Mike

 

5 Replies
freedom1493
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 7, 2020

0 Kudos
timetippingpt
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 7, 2020

Oh Alan....they also overestimated last years crop by over 300 mil bushels. At least tell the whole story.

0 Kudos
sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, January 7, 2020

Alan had no proof of anything.  I doubt he can tell anyone the actual amount of corn demand now that it is over, let alone the accuracy of his own statements.  shaddow boxing.

0 Kudos
rickgthf
Senior Advisor

Re: Soybean harvest started in Mato Grosso

Did you see that, the soybean harvest is about to start in Mato Grosso.  And the Chinese haven't bought any US beans since Dec. 23rd.  Let's hope the Chinese decide to buy a few more beans just ahead of Jan 15th in order to get the Phase One signed.

  After that, it's anyone's guess if they'll buy again before next fall.

0 Kudos
wrightcattle
Veteran Advisor

The iran deal

 

Should put crude oil in the $100 + range. 

This should significantly raise corn prices.  Say add at least $1.

 

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